December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Bob Chill]

I'm keeping it simple. I'm going to hug the snowiest model at all times until there's no model showing snow at all. Then I'll dig up the CRAS link. 

[Bosswx]

This is a great position to be om a week or 6 days out.

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Here's a good visual of the difference between the GFS and F3 for the NS. I think this shows how a little difference goes a long way 

Wow...so that could sink us or save us--mercy. May as well flip a coin, lol (but let me guess...this could very well flip and back and forth on modeling over the next few days?) And if we end up on the losing side of this--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.

That's every single storm. Sometimes a tiny thing saves us too. Never forget our climo. The majority of winters are sub climo and we can go years in between big storms. Enjoy the chase win lose or draw because it's fun mental exercise but never believe it's going to snow until you finish shoveling

[frd]

7 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

FV3 has the same NS vort but just didnt dive in like the op. Seems like we have had slight pos trends early in the 18z runs....just minor adjustments in that NS system produce major changes. 

Not to be funny, but this may come down to the wire next weekend. I expect improvements over the next couple of days,  but ultimatley it will be the NAM giving us the most likely outcome 24 to 48 before the start.   :-)  

Back to reality, really enjoy seeing the slow but steady changes out in the long range.

Liking the later part of December for cold and snow oppurtunities.  

Maybe we might even cycle around and get back into the favorable phases of the MJO deeper into our climo period. 

Meanwhile the PV continues to get assaulted, and by mid-month things might turn very interesting. 

 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wow...so that could sink us or save us--mercy. May as well flip a coin, lol (but let me guess...this could very well flip and back and forth on modeling over the next few days?) And if we end up on the losing side of this--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.

Nothing is a guarantee but if what we need is weaker confluence from 6 days out I'm fine with that.

I love the strength and juice of the southern stream. With enough cold air around that's ussually a winning combo around here.

 

[Scraff]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm keeping it simple. I'm going to hug the snowiest model at all times until there's no model showing snow at all. Then I'll dig up the CRAS link. 

The CRAS is honestly my favorite model. I think JI endorses it as well. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Shame we cant the circled area to be father West instead of phasing off the coast. Maybe just maybe that ull off the Southwest US can pump the downstream ridge a little more aggressively/faster (+pna even if transient). Who knows? Well we all know there will be major changes still over the next several days anyway.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That's every single storm. Sometimes a tiny thing saves us too. Never forget our climo. The majority of winters are sub climo and we can go years in between big storms. Enjoy the chase win lose or draw because it's fun mental exercise but never believe it's going to snow until you finish shoveling

Ah but the weak-to-mod ninos winters hit climo (at minimum) MOST of the time, correct? (Even if it's through smaller storms). That's why I've been kinda banking on this winter (since the last two were pretty miserable). 

And I've been thinking...The last 9 years it feels like we've had more storms to eclipse a foot than the previous decade. So the 2010s seem to have had shorter spaces between years that had big storms. In terms of our climo, the fact that we've had at least five storms eclipse the foot mark from 2009/10 onwards is actually pretty good (so I suppose we should be grateful, lol). But I think that's spoiled some of us (including me--especially since I didn't start following this forum until the awesome 2013/14 winter, lol)

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

One thing people havent brought up much is the ridging out in the Atlantic. Not sure if it is considered the WAR or the SE ridge by definition or a blend of both but it keeps getting stronger. Another reason I think this storm doesnt head due E and actually will help steer it closer to the Mid Atl. This could still very much end up a storm with impacts from the SE to New England and everywhere in between.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Models now have a major +EPO/+AO, I think this signal is overdone because of El Nino-analog climatology. 

[luckyamaha]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure its been mentioned but the gefs has a couple members that slow timing down so considerably that the low amplifies southwest of us and tracks the low almost on top of us. Just another possibility. 

Some due but that "L" coming off Jacksonville on the 500mb is not what we want since there is no ridge in the Atlantic to block it and turn it up along the coast. I could be wrong in what im seeing.

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ah but the weak-to-mod ninos winters hit climo (at minimum) MOST of the time, correct? (Even if it's through smaller storms). That's why I've been kinda banking on this winter (since the last two were pretty miserable).

 

 

Yea, Nino's are generally our best chance at a good year. Some suck though. 06-07 was warm and if we didn't get a good Feb event it would have been really bad. 2016 had only one storm. If we missed the Jan event it would have been an epic disaster. 04-05 was sub climo but that was bad luck mostly. 

Also, Nino's aren't known for Dec snow. General nino climo is warmish Dec and back loaded. I do think this will be an above average winter but it wouldn't surprise me at all if it doesn't happen until Jan-Feb. If we score next weekend then we're off to an unusually good start. 

And to your last point... yep, we've been on a helluva big storm heater since 02-03. It either means that climate warming supports bigger storms or we regress to the mean over the coming decade or 2. 

[Interstate]

38 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Not sure its been mentioned but the gefs has a couple members that slow timing down so considerably that the low amplifies southwest of us and tracks the low almost on top of us. Just another possibility. 

That is my biggest fear is the system keeps slowing down and starts to cut

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 hours ago, Round Hill WX said:

Confluence from the north is ALWAYS overdone at this range. It’ll be Wednesday/Thursday before it is resolved. 

I wouldn’t say always but I agree that confluence in the ne is often overdone 

[clskinsfan]

Just looked at the FV3 run from this evening. Get a load of that monster blizzard in the middle of the country at the end of its run. What a monster.

[das]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

And to your last point... yep, we've been on a helluva big storm heater since 02-03. It either means that climate warming supports bigger storms or we regress to the mean over the coming decade or 2. 

I was shocked to see that my new place just south of Burlington has only had 5 10”+ storms in the last decade (with only 1 above 20”) and Clarksburg has had 8 in the last 8 years with 3 over 20” (with places just NE of me with 5 over 20”). Quite a run for the mid-Atlantic. 

[Yeoman]

when does the off-hour Euro start running?

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

when does the off-hour Euro start running?

6z/18z only goes out to 90.  Ji can extrapolate though.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Cranky wrote a nice synopsis of the pattern.  http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm

[yoda]

4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Cranky wrote a nice synopsis of the pattern.  http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm

Lol after scrolling halfway down to even find it...

[gymengineer]

2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

And to your last point... yep, we've been on a helluva big storm heater since 02-03. It either means that climate warming supports bigger storms or we regress to the mean over the coming decade or 2. 

Have you seen Ian’s recent article about the decreasing averages but increase in huge events? 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/29/snowfall-shows-sharp-long-term-decline-washington-region-some-trends-are-surprising/?utm_term=.7fba8f3745b5

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

From Crankyweather fwiw " The current stop sign of any modeling is the southern Plains. From there your reactive responses to the timing of the arrivial of the polar pieces greatly varies not just model to model but run to run and that WILL continue through Wednesday. "

[MountainGeek]

NWS gives us a yellow (slight) risk for Sat/Sat night. 

Also to echo @BTRWx's Thanks Giving......any newbies here should definitely check out the latest from Cranky -- http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm.

He does a great job of explaining all the complexity in the setup, and why models jump around so much at this range, as well as offering reasonable benchmarks for when to expect better clarity.

We're all here to have fun with the mid-long range stuff and tracking (by DEFINITION this game is VERY LOW ODDS)........and I've learned a TON from some of the very knowledgeable posters here....but if you find yourself getting sucked in too early yet again to the point where you're going to be depressed if we don't get shellacked this weekend.....maybe a "cranky pill" is just the ticket so you don't get reaped before winter even really gets started.  

 

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Just looked at the FV3 run from this evening. Get a load of that monster blizzard in the middle of the country at the end of its run. What a monster.

What's even better is the monster west based -nao. Gfs op had a nice east based one. I like seeing ops spit out blocking even though it's fantasyland. Building a -ao/nao during the second half of Dec would be a very good sign.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Cranky wrote a nice synopsis of the pattern.  http://www.stormhamster.com/entry/e120218.htm

My favorite quotation from this article that encapsulates this forum:

"Significant drop offs in stability and confidence in modeling begins right around Day 4 but really accelerates day 6 onward. No point in driving yourself insane "now the GFS came north!" or "now the ECMWF is flatter!" and chasing either or both or playing the "it will come back" or whatever kind of games. Usually intended to find a way to bring the perfect scenario to pass. Of which is a hard sell for this one."

[nj2va]

The good news?  00z ICON isn’t suppressed.  

The bad news?  It’s a 999 over ORF and heavy rain everywhere.  

More good news?  It’d break the annual rainfall record at DCA.  woo!  

[Chris78]

Icon takes a great track but it takes so long to get here it rains.

[Cobalt]

Just now, Chris78 said:

Icon takes a great track but it takes so long to get here it rains.

I wish you could check 850s for ICON on TT. Its upper 20s in Pennsylvania and surface shows rain while it's just about near freezing for DC and below freezing for areas NW. That'd be quite the warm nose

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

The good news?  00z ICON isn’t suppressed.  

The bad news?  It’s a 999 over ORF and heavy rain everywhere.  

More good news?  It’d break the annual rainfall record at DCA.  woo!  

It's not showing it well but some of it is at least FRZA... surface temps are below freezing N/W of the city. Some of the slower GEFS members have an icy/mixy mess too. Just another option on the table.