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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm starting to think the bad look was just a brief step as the pattern retrogrades into a typical nino look. 

I’m from the South but have an interest in the MA, more specifically Snowshoe WVa. What does this mean for temps in the area? Would they be near average to slightly above or worse? Talking long range here, entire month. 

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10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem.  One or the other. 

Very true. That's why I said this morning to be watching for the trend towards suppression. In my mind if the NS feature get's much bigger it will cause this thing to be a rainer for Florida and Georgia. It's still a possibility that this could not be a winter storm for anyone. We forget that we're still 6-7 days out. We've all seen stranger things happen at shorter leads. I'm not saying it's going to be a non event for anyone but I still think it's a possibility. 

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yep. That trailing lobe rotating down digs more this run and is the crusher. With all the vortices rotating around up top, its going to be awhile before the models have a decent handle on the evolution and converge on a solution. Maybe by Thursday lol.

It's probably a big hit if you remove the lobe. All the ingredients are in place. We just need the northern stream to cooperate. It's not like it's a brick wall of extreme cold. It's just that additional lobe that showed up 2 runs ago. The SS shortwave is plenty strong enough to deliver a significant storm here.

 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's always part of the game. Too much ns interaction too early and it goes west. Phase in a good spot and we get destroyed. Block instead of phase and we get a southern slider. I mentioned when this first showed up that the pattern fits a good hit and also a southern slider. 

Models won't have the ns nailed down for prob 3 more days at least. It can easily get much better or it can get much worse. It's insanely rare for a storm to not go through many scenarios as leads shorten. 

I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)

That's what a strong -NAO will do

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)

all of them (including 2016)

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)

Jan 16 was one in a million. The only time we get stable long lead stuff is when there's a stable west based block. Feb 2010 was similar in that regard but both storms (especially the second one) went through many ups and downs at long leads. Dec 09 had doubts 48-72 hours out. 

In this hobby it's a good rule of thumb to never get invested until d4 and even that is pushing it  

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Jan 16 was one in a million. The only time we get stable long lead stuff is when there's a stable west based block. Feb 2010 was similar in that regard but both storms (especially the second one) when through many ups and downs at long leads. Dec 09 had doubts 48-72 hours out. 

In this hobby it's a good rule of thumb to never get invested until d4 and even that is pushing it  

I’d still rather be in this position...waiting for south trend is pure folly.  I bet this comes north but just falls short.  A closer miss perhaps.  

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12 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

It's probably a big hit if you remove the lobe. All the ingredients are in place. We just need the northern stream to cooperate. It's not like it's a brick wall of extreme cold. It's just that additional lobe that showed up 2 runs ago. The SS shortwave is plenty strong enough to deliver a significant storm here.

 

Maybe we should hope for that lobe to continue to move SW and actually interact with our storm. Is that one of many possibilities?

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21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I hate it when we need something to "get out of the way"...(just like last year when we needed that great lakes low to "get out of the way"...always something, smh)

I would rather that problem at day 6 then a weak stj system. We just need the timing or depth of that northern stream system to be off. So it's not diving in right in front to squash it. 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It needs to be behind the southern shortwave for any interaction. That's not happening. 

Almost like the wave behind the low.  Perhaps those two vort maxes can phase in later runs?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018120218/gfs_z500_vort_namer_34.png

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18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I would rather that problem at day 6 then a weak stj system. We just need the timing or depth of that northern stream system to be off. So it's not diving in right in front to squash it. 

Bingo. And the northern stream has been the most poorly modeled aspect to this whole thing. Keep everything else the same and advance that northern stream shortwave 12-24 hours and 12z euro and 18z gfs would both have shellacked us.

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

FV3 is a crush job at least for my direct area. Great track from CHS to Hatteras. Been fairly consistent as well. Anyone know about it’s verification scores since it’s inception?

You don’t need panic just a good snow shovel.  It would take a major shift for you not to get snow.  Yeah buddy!

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