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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

In longer range news... Both the geps and eps are shifting towards a +pna and a trough in the east. It's not a cold pattern but its not a shutout. Most importantly, none of the ens guidance are far away from a half decent winter pattern. It's def going to get mild after next weekend but I have a hunch we'll be tracking another d11+ fantasy by this time next week. 

I made pretty much this exact post early this morning. Verbatim the mild period is a few days in the upper 40s- low 50s. We still need the AK trough to retro more, but as advertised the positioning is good enough to pop a PNA ridge. Roll it forward and its not hard to imagine we will be back in business by Xmas. 

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DT mentioned in his video yesterday that the energy on Wednesday looked strong enough for models to trend toward snow showers/squalls during the day.


Models have been showing a shot at this, especially down in my corner of Virginia. I’ve been tracking this slightly, since I’d be pumped to see any snow whatsoever, since I got shut out in November.

EPS members (which are admittedly probably fairly useless for that kind of event) give a lot of the area a dusting+ on Wednesday.
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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So we gotta root for that, right? We need a bully shortwave to push past that confluence (or whatever that is)

That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

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Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem.  One or the other. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

I hate it when we need something to "get out of the way"...(just like last year when we needed that great lakes low to "get out of the way"...always something, smh)

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem.  One or the other. 

So long after last winter's nina is over...the northern stream is STILL trying to screw us over, smh. I'm developing a dislike of the ns...

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. 

gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

Yep. That trailing lobe rotating down digs more this run and is the crusher. With all the vortices rotating around up top, its going to be awhile before the models have a decent handle on the evolution and converge on a solution. Maybe by Thursday lol.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem.  One or the other. 

Looking at previous runs for the same timeframe the only consolation is that the models are all over the place wrt the ns vorts. This run is a totally new wrinkle by rotating a lobe that far SW to bork up flow and make it a Dixieland special

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

So long after last winter's nina is over...the northern stream is STILL trying to screw us over, smh. I'm developing a dislike of the ns...

It's always part of the game. Too much ns interaction too early and it goes west. Phase in a good spot and we get destroyed. Block instead of phase and we get a southern slider. I mentioned when this first showed up that the pattern fits a good hit and also a southern slider. 

Models won't have the ns nailed down for prob 3 more days at least. It can easily get much better or it can get much worse. It's insanely rare for a storm to not go through many scenarios as leads shorten. 

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