CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In longer range news... Both the geps and eps are shifting towards a +pna and a trough in the east. It's not a cold pattern but its not a shutout. Most importantly, none of the ens guidance are far away from a half decent winter pattern. It's def going to get mild after next weekend but I have a hunch we'll be tracking another d11+ fantasy by this time next week. I made pretty much this exact post early this morning. Verbatim the mild period is a few days in the upper 40s- low 50s. We still need the AK trough to retro more, but as advertised the positioning is good enough to pop a PNA ridge. Roll it forward and its not hard to imagine we will be back in business by Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 DT mentioned in his video yesterday that the energy on Wednesday looked strong enough for models to trend toward snow showers/squalls during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 DT mentioned in his video yesterday that the energy on Wednesday looked strong enough for models to trend toward snow showers/squalls during the day.Models have been showing a shot at this, especially down in my corner of Virginia. I’ve been tracking this slightly, since I’d be pumped to see any snow whatsoever, since I got shut out in November. EPS members (which are admittedly probably fairly useless for that kind of event) give a lot of the area a dusting+ on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Blockade of HP over the Plains toward the MA at 138... SLP in W LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I'm on IWP and there appears to be a slowing trend of the development and forward movement of the moisture. Both 6z and 12z were a good few hundred miles ahead at hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Gfs trending stronger with the shortwave. Hit or miss it's going to be a stronger storm vs 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Should be slightly nw of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 A few subtle but positive changes so far imo....little stronger sw/better ridging out front and a little less confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 156 SLP over or near TLH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs trending stronger with the shortwave. Hit or miss it's going to be a stronger storm vs 12z So we gotta root for that, right? We need a bully shortwave to push past that confluence (or whatever that is) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’ll take my chances with a stronger sw and overmodeled confluence at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looks like ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Yeoman said: Looks like ass Ass has never looked so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Ass has never looked so good. thats what he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Yeoman said: thats what he said I stand corrected. Looks smooshed. Clear trend with the Sunday suite. Moving on to the Monday Suites, beginning with 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So we gotta root for that, right? We need a bully shortwave to push past that confluence (or whatever that is) That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 sigh... looks south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Confluence even stronger this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Exiting stage right. NC snowstorm. Too much confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: sigh... looks south. It is..but why sigh? We're not even close to deadly range now. Just have fun with the swings until say Tuesday or Wed. Roll wit it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Swing and a miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem. One or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. I hate it when we need something to "get out of the way"...(just like last year when we needed that great lakes low to "get out of the way"...always something, smh) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It is..but why sigh? We're not even close to deadly range now. Just have fun with the swings until say Tuesday or Wed. Roll wit it Yeah. I get that it will change but Euro and now the GFS showing the same sort of thing is a *tad* unnerving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 We need the troff on the 546dm or 552dm contour. 561dm is usually passes to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Appears so far away from a hit but man...that sw (that @Bob Chill noted) wasnt even there at 00z...showed up at 6z and has trended slower/stronger. I doubt that one small piece of NS energy is done changing 6/7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem. One or the other. So long after last winter's nina is over...the northern stream is STILL trying to screw us over, smh. I'm developing a dislike of the ns... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: That's not the big issue. There's a northern stream shortwave over the NE creating extra confluence. See the bright orange area over NNE? We want that to get out of the way. Yep. That trailing lobe rotating down digs more this run and is the crusher. With all the vortices rotating around up top, its going to be awhile before the models have a decent handle on the evolution and converge on a solution. Maybe by Thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, that sucks. Gfs squashes for the same reason the euro does. Not a good thing. There's time for things to change but our issue is the northern stream. I mentioned it yesterday. Models don't do well with the ns at longer ranges. It's either a phantom sw that ends up not being a problem or its a very real problem. One or the other. Looking at previous runs for the same timeframe the only consolation is that the models are all over the place wrt the ns vorts. This run is a totally new wrinkle by rotating a lobe that far SW to bork up flow and make it a Dixieland special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: So long after last winter's nina is over...the northern stream is STILL trying to screw us over, smh. I'm developing a dislike of the ns... It's always part of the game. Too much ns interaction too early and it goes west. Phase in a good spot and we get destroyed. Block instead of phase and we get a southern slider. I mentioned when this first showed up that the pattern fits a good hit and also a southern slider. Models won't have the ns nailed down for prob 3 more days at least. It can easily get much better or it can get much worse. It's insanely rare for a storm to not go through many scenarios as leads shorten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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