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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro went with my "don't want to see some weak pos wave exiting off Jacksonville" option. It's squash city. 

This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter)

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter)

Yeah I think I mentioned that possibility yesterday. Definitely a concern.

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That hp is a brute on the euro. Not just a little suppressed... Congrats SC. 

On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. 

Yea, not what we were looking for to put it mildly. Everything went wrong. Luckily we still have 4 days before large shifts become unlikely. 

Eps prob won't save us either. They will almost surely follow the op for the most part now that we're inside of 8 days. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. 

Actually, I don’t think it’s as bad as it looks. PNA ridge is better (which we also saw with the GFS) and shortwave looks deeper. It’s just the confluence that’s keeps it down there. 

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1 minute ago, supernovasky said:

6-12" for Atlanta, 16-20" for Athens.

I have a bridge to sell anyone who thinks that’s happening in early December. 

The more I look, the more I think a lot of features trended well actually in this euro run. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I'll go with your take. Any ship in a storm!

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

Is the snow cover that widespread and banked up in Eastern Canada right now to allow serious cold like that to bleed down? I could see like mid January but I agree 12/9? 

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