psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gfs greatly underestimates the expanse of the precip shield and qpf in the deform from range. Doesn't matter because the track will shift around from this range anyways but a track like that would probably have better results then the raw output suggests for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I can live with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs greatly underestimates the expanse of the precip shield and qpf in the deform from range. Doesn't matter because the track will shift around from this range anyways but a track like that would probably have better results then the raw output suggests for our area. Yeah when you look at the vort pass and 500 maps you’d think it would be *puking* snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, supernovasky said: I can live with this. Not sure who put that 16 over my house..but thank you God Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gfs is a carbon copy of the 12z euro ens control run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Yeah when you look at the vort pass and 500 maps you’d think it would be *puking* snow here. It would be. The gfs parks the ccb over us for 24 hours but it's only light the whole time. Like I said it could be way off on the track and then it's irrelevant but that exact evolution and I'd bet money the result would be much better then the raw qpf indicates. Gfs does that a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs is a carbon copy of the 12z euro ens control run charlottesville looks like the winner *thus far* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Looking at these snow total maps from GFS and EPS with a pint of Dark Hallow in front of me it almost seems like Im seeing double. Great hit area wide now if we can only hold this for the next 7+ days and get a crush job. Lets see what the new FV3 has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Ok kids, preseason is over. Winter is here Can we, uh, tighten up on some of the off topic, wrong, and/or extreme weenie posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Para is south of the op with the low with less snow, but it shows snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 FV3 with a very similar solution now makes all 4 ops looking the same. Uncanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: FV3 with a very similar solution now makes all 4 ops looking the same. Uncanny. Ya know the last time we saw that kind of agreement was...January 2016, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Fv3 takes what actually would be a central VA Jack track with a stretched out system and more suppressive flow. I like where we are right now though. The early dec 2003 storm showed up in the day 8 analogs today. I know that was a forum divider with 6-12" nw of the fall line and nothing east of 95 but this has much better antecedent cold then that did. At least the way it looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Gefs a solid improvement with mean precip shifting norrh from 18z. Plenty of good hits in the mix. Great trends today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The last frames are taking forever to load. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, yoda said: 00z GFS at 180 has SLP in NE LA/S MS with a sprawling HP across MN/IA/WI 186 SLP in S AL Just getting here and first thing I read is what I love to see..High cold will be really fresh. Low looks like it want to go over Atlanta. Rest of it can be great watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs a solid improvement with mean precip shifting norrh from 18z. Plenty of good hits in the mix. Great trends today... Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Does the euro start early tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Does the euro start early tonight?Running right on time, just started at 12:50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event. The last 2 times ive seen models lock in early like this was Jan 16 and Feb 14. But this was only the first set of runs that looked the same. Get 2-3 more suites holding the same idea and I'll be down the rabbit hole. 0z euro will probably suck and I'll ask myself why I didn't go to sleep before it ran. Eta: gefs is looking a lot more tame with the relax d13+. Eps slowly improving too. We may not even notice the warmth before we're tracking another threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I can’t believe I’m up for the Euro. Hope it’s worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 6 hours ago, poolz1 said: Right or wrong...at least the FV3 doesn't jump 500 miles a run. Doesnt seem as prone to wild swings with major features.. Again, no idea of verification... It's doing very well. I've been checking in on it for the last few months and it has been consistently better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 13 minutes ago, Scraff said: I can’t believe I’m up for the Euro. Hope it’s worth it. Agreed. With the way things are going so far, why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, Scraff said: I can’t believe I’m up for the Euro. Hope it’s worth it. Not something written on here often on the first day of December...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Climate175 said: Agreed, With the way things are going so far, why not. Couldn’t agree more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 The euro model is running slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 It’s a little slower then at 12z but it still looks like a solid hit... snow moving into SW VA at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 192 looks... okay I think? SLP is down near SE AL/SW GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 It pretty much looks like a slam dunk again. Moderate snow moving into DCA at 198. Heavy stuff south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It pretty much looks like a slam dunk again. Moderate snow moving into DCA at 198. Heavy stuff south. Where are you getting your info? Weathermodels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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