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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Gfs greatly underestimates the expanse of the precip shield and qpf in the deform from range. Doesn't matter because the track will shift around from this range anyways but a track like that would probably have better results then the raw output suggests for our area. 

Yeah when you look at the vort pass and 500 maps you’d think it would be *puking* snow here.

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

Yeah when you look at the vort pass and 500 maps you’d think it would be *puking* snow here.

It would be. The gfs parks the ccb over us for 24 hours but it's only light the whole time. Like I said it could be way off on the track and then it's irrelevant but that exact evolution and I'd bet money the result would be much better then the raw qpf indicates. Gfs does that a lot.  

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Looking at these snow total maps from GFS and  EPS with a pint of Dark Hallow in front of me it almost seems like Im seeing double. Great hit area wide now if we can only hold this for the next 7+ days and get a crush job. Lets see what the new FV3 has to say

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Fv3 takes what actually would be a central VA Jack track with a stretched out system and more suppressive flow. I like where we are right now though. The early dec 2003 storm showed up in the day 8 analogs today. I know that was a forum divider with 6-12" nw of the fall line and nothing east of 95 but this has much better antecedent cold then that did. At least the way it looks right now. 

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8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs a solid improvement with mean precip shifting norrh from 18z. Plenty of good hits in the mix. Great trends today...

Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event. 

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17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event. 

The last 2 times ive seen models lock in early like this was Jan 16 and Feb 14. But this was only the first set of runs that looked the same. Get 2-3 more suites holding the same idea and I'll be down the rabbit hole. 0z euro will probably suck and I'll ask myself why I didn't go to sleep before it ran. 

Eta: gefs is looking a lot more tame with the relax d13+. Eps slowly improving too. We may not even notice the warmth before we're tracking another threat. 

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6 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Right or wrong...at least the FV3 doesn't jump 500 miles a run.  Doesnt seem as prone to wild swings with major features..  Again, no idea of verification...

It's doing very well.  I've been checking in on it for the last few months and it has been consistently better than the GFS. 

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