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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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Just now, purduewx80 said:

I've seen countless instances where a jet was not initialized properly until it was sampled on the West Coast...specifically while living and forecasting in the Midwest. Because of the way models are initialized, there is rarely going to be an instantaneous change in the modeling given new obs, which is why the trends are important to watch. I am curious to see whether the introduction of higher-res GOES-16 and GOES-17 data changes this.

Good to know, thanks.  Totally agree with your point on trends and GOES 16+17.

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Just now, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

I just don’t love the evolution. It keeps slowing down and instead of a more West to east storm that gets nearly everyone in the game on the 40 lat line across the country, now it has to turn the corner a lot more. Just my opinion 

Yes but by it slowing down... it allows the interaction with the northern stream more... like I said... you can see that to begin on panel 150 of the H5 maps

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

The thing is so damn slow that the airmass is pretty stale when it gets to us.  Still (barely) cold enough for a mauling, but I'd rather it get here Saturday-Sunday instead of Monday.  

The WAA piece gets squished with confluence. Minor changes and the waa slug gets here no problem. The slowdown is the stone wall of confluence too. Can that change in 6 days? Lol

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I really like the upper level support on the gfs. Hit or not, that aint even close to weak or sheared...

Northern s/w phases into our southern s/w.  GFS has done that a few times, which has mostly resulted in our cutter solutions.  But if you combine a phase with enough confluence and cold air to the north, you get this.  Lot's of moving parts.  

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10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

DC and PSU land TBD, but man, that's a great run for much of southern and western VA. 

Me being fringed at this range is a good thing. When I say I don't want to see suppression I mean I don't want to see some weak arse 1015 low limping uselessly out to see off Jacksonville and no precip north of Raleigh. We want it a little south. You definitely want me to be fringe city right now. I just don't want to be seeing it target the Carolinas. A central VA Jack is a good look right now imo. This run has my endorsement. 

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