December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MD Snow]

23 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

And we are not at a trend stage yet. DT made good points yesterday. The signal is clearly there for a storm, anything other then that right now is noise. 

But we had the signal for a storm across all modeling last year and then it went poof inside 5 days. That possibility has to be on the table at this point. Not saying it will happen or that this pattern isn't a good one...

[Scraff]

I slept in this morning. Woke up to a roller coaster in here. Probably going to be that way for another day or two before we can safely lock in win or fail. Of course, JI will wake up shortly and cancel the rest of winter. Maybe even next winter. 

[luckyamaha]

I was up all night since I work nights so it looked good with the Euro then 6z sucked on GFS. Now time for sleep so keep the ball rolling but not suppressed for next run

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I slept in this morning. Woke up to a roller coaster in here. Probably going to be that way for another day or two before we can safely lock in win or fail. Of course, JI will wake up shortly and cancel the rest of winter. Maybe even next winter. 

You really think by Monday or Tuesday we'll be "locked in"? How long have you been in this hobby?

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Scraff said:

I slept in this morning. Woke up to a roller coaster in here. Probably going to be that way for another day or two before we can safely lock in win or fail. Of course, JI will wake up shortly and cancel the rest of winter. Maybe even next winter. 

Correct.  We went from an 18z cutter to a 6z suppessor...in 12hours.  If your going to parse through every op run (and I do....and i enjoy it), one can only can look for trends and general storm track w/ op runs at this lead.  

[MillvilleWx]

Something that will need to be watched closely is the strength of the forecasted confluence to the north. There's been times in the past where the medium range confluence pattern is progged too strong initially, which is why some storms tend to draw north as we inch closer to prime time. Also, a slightly more energized southern wave is still possible as is something else we've seen adjust in the short term. There's still so much time with multiple moving pieces to sort out, there's no way anyone should be gunning on any one particular outcome. Now, ensemble trends were a bit more boo than bite last night with the general strength in the confluence to the north, but mid-week will be the time frame where models will start getting a better handle of both pieces. If ensembles are squashing the southern wave by Wednesday still, then it's likely the region will have a hard time getting a worthy event. There's not much change that needs to occur for this to trend better. 

[WxUSAF]

In other news:

 

[pasnownut]

9 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Something that will need to be watched closely is the strength of the forecasted confluence to the north. There's been times in the past where the medium range confluence pattern is progged too strong initially, which is why some storms tend to draw north as we inch closer to prime time. Also, a slightly more energized southern wave is still possible as is something else we've seen adjust in the short term. There's still so much time with multiple moving pieces to sort out, there's no way anyone should be gunning on any one particular outcome. Now, ensemble trends were a bit more boo than bite last night with the general strength in the confluence to the north, but mid-week will be the time frame where models will start getting a better handle of both pieces. If ensembles are squashing the southern wave by Wednesday still, then it's likely the region will have a hard time getting a worthy event. There's not much change that needs to occur for this to trend better. 

Boy am i glad you still "hang out" with us.  Hope your enjoying the tumbleweeds bud .

Yeah once inside 96, start adding weight to Ops over Ens. 

This trackin stuff is fun, and ahead of schedule for me, so its all good no matter who gets what.  I know my yard is no snow magnet (sorry snowmagnet). 

 

[Scraff]

20 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

You really think by Monday or Tuesday we'll be "locked in"? How long have you been in this hobby?

Good point! I should know better. It’s all fake anyway until it’s actually snowing in my backyard. 

As a side note. Why in the world does the front yard get no love? I’m going to start using IMFY moving forward. 

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Boy am i glad you still "hang out" with us.  Hope your enjoying the tumbleweeds bud .

Yeah once inside 96, start adding weight to Ops over Ens. 

This trackin stuff is fun, and ahead of schedule for me, so its all good no matter who gets what.  I know my yard is no snow magnet (sorry snowmagnet). 

 

I would never leave this sub-forum when winter comes around. It's still my home. Even when I'm not getting impacted, I have a ton of family and friends who are and you know I'll be getting lambasted with texts asking what's happening with (insert storm date here) lol. 

Tumbleweeds are a little more of an issue just to my north btw, but my god the dust out here is crazy. Had a front blow through Sunday with 50 mph wind gusts. Visibility went from 10 SM to like 2 in a few minutes. 

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I would never leave this sub-forum when winter comes around. It's still my home. Even when I'm not getting impacted, I have a ton of family and friends who are and you know I'll be getting lambasted with texts asking what's happening with (insert storm date here) lol. 

Tumbleweeds are a little more of an issue just to my north btw, but my god the dust out here is crazy. Had a front blow through Sunday with 50 mph wind gusts. Visibility went from 10 SM to like 2 in a few minutes. 

Yeah, once the "go to" weather guy.....always the go to weather guy.  

I HATE dust, so you'll likely never get a visit from me....lol

 

[dallen7908]

EPS chances for >1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow at Baltimore through next weekend's possible storm

[caviman2201]

Is there even an analog this early in the season for a suppressed STJ wave that dumps on the Carolinas while we get nada? I have to think we have climo strongly on our side here too. 

Even if it is within the realm of possibilities, I have to think a solution like the 6z GFSv2 is exceedingly rare this early in the year. 

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Is there even an analog this early in the season for a suppressed STJ wave that dumps on the Carolinas while we get nada? I have to think we have climo strongly on our side here too. 

Even if it is within the realm of possibilities, I have to think a solution like the 6z GFSv2 is exceedingly rare this early in the year. 

Very true.  Climo and calendar just don't support this thing getting squashed.  If it's suppressed, it's probably due to the shortwave ending up drastically weaker rather than cold air pushing it to FL.  

[pasnownut]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Very true.  Climo and calendar just don't support this thing getting squashed.  If it's suppressed, it's probably due to the shortwave ending up drastically weaker rather than cold air pushing it to FL.  

Yeah caviman made a great point.  There isn't much history or support for major suppression for this storm, and climo says its a little early for suppression. 

My gut still worries about northern jog....or maybe that was the breakfast i just ate.

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah caviman made a great point.  There isn't much history or support for major suppression for this storm, and climo says its a little early for suppression. 

My gut still worries about northern jog....or maybe that was the breakfast i just ate.

 

And I want to emphasize my 2nd point.  Last night's EPS had the confluence stronger north, which should have supported a north trend on the low placement. The fact that it went south a bit was due to the s/w being weaker and counteracting that shift in the north.  

[caviman2201]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

And I want to emphasize my 2nd point.  Last night's EPS had the confluence stronger north, which should have supported a north trend on the low placement. The fact that it went south a bit was due to the s/w being weaker and counteracting that shift in the north.  

Is SW strength something we generally have to wait until it comes onshore to determine or are satellites able to reliably pick that up and feed it to the models while it's still over the ocean? In other words at what point is the initial SW strength "locked in"? 

[Bob Chill]

Icon looks good at h5 to not have a suppressed track. Extrapolated surface panel is decent 

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Is SW strength something we generally have to wait until it comes onshore to determine or are satellites able to reliably pick that up and feed it to the models while it's still over the ocean? In other words at what point is the initial SW strength "locked in"? 

@Ian and I (and others) have had that conversation several times over the last several years.  I think the old "wait for it to get onshore" is pretty outdated as I think satellite obs are pretty damn good at getting that.  But it's still a forecast as far as what happens as it moves east.  How much it gets sheared, whether any more energy phases in, etc.  

[PrinceFrederickWx]

37 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Is there even an analog this early in the season for a suppressed STJ wave that dumps on the Carolinas while we get nada? I have to think we have climo strongly on our side here too. 

Even if it is within the realm of possibilities, I have to think a solution like the 6z GFSv2 is exceedingly rare this early in the year. 

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/ChristmasSnow1989

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@Ian and I (and others) have had that conversation several times over the last several years.  I think the old "wait for it to get onshore" is pretty outdated as I think satellite obs are pretty damn good at getting that.  But it's still a forecast as far as what happens as it moves east.  How much it gets sheared, whether any more energy phases in, etc.  

I totally agree. I've rarely if ever seen a wholesale shift for that reason alone. Guidance can give a fake signal that it makes a difference but the real reason is by the time shortwaves on onshore, the lead time is shorter and it's normal for models to shift at shorter leads. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

This GFS run will probably be squashed 

[Bob Chill]

I'm not going to sweat a suppressed track for at least 3 days. It might be right but I'll save my worries for being on the southern fringe. The odds of improvement on a suppressed track in the med range is far higher than sitting on thr southern edge

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

This GFS run will probably be squashed 

I think we need to let the model run play out first

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not going to sweat a suppressed track for at least 3 days. It might be right but I'll save my worries for being on the southern fringe. The odds of improvement on a suppressed track in the med range is far higher than sitting on thr southern edge

Absolutely, especially if that suppression is due to confluence flexing its muscle.  If the shortwave turns to crap, that's another worry.  

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not going to sweat a suppressed track for at least 3 days. It might be right but I'll save my worries for being on the southern fringe. The odds of improvement on a suppressed track in the med range is far higher than sitting on thr southern edge

I will say this...I d like to be on the northern edge at least...looking way south and wanting a north move vs getting something and wanting the heavy stuff to come north is tougher to get excited about. Agree that right now is too early to be overly concerned 

[Chris78]

Not sure if it will a difference but so far the SS shortwave is a little stronger and more positive tilted.

Ninjaed by @losetoa6

[LP08]

NS Sw isn’t beating down the western ridge as much.  Much sharper trough moving across the country

[WesternFringe]

The high at 144 (in Wisconsin) on the 12Z GFS is modeled further N than the high at 150 on the 06Z GFS.  Should give it more room to move north....hopefully

[purduewx80]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@Ian and I (and others) have had that conversation several times over the last several years.  I think the old "wait for it to get onshore" is pretty outdated as I think satellite obs are pretty damn good at getting that.  But it's still a forecast as far as what happens as it moves east.  How much it gets sheared, whether any more energy phases in, etc.  

I've seen countless instances where a jet was not initialized properly until it was sampled on the West Coast...specifically while living and forecasting in the Midwest. Because of the way models are initialized, there is rarely going to be an instantaneous change in the modeling given new obs, which is why the trends are important to watch. I am curious to see whether the introduction of higher-res GOES-16 and GOES-17 data changes this.