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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Yep, and the lowest pressure was already in GA by then. This run is a textbook big storm for us. Def reminds me of Dec 09. 

Wow don’t even get me going with that one! 2 footer for ROA and record 24 hr snowfall all the way up to you guys and philly 

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7 minutes ago, Amped said:

GFS is screwing SNE like it's February 2010.

I normally don't engage in the New England rivalry but after some Boston flunkies insisted this was definitely a miller b New England year like 2005 and I was wrong to suggest the mid Atlantic would do well...I hope they smoke cirrus all winter while we post deck pics. 

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where was your play by play?  Yoda is good but...

I brought it home... sort of.  The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run.  IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred when you look at hours 171 and 174 on there

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4 minutes ago, yoda said:

I brought it home... sort of.  The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run.  IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred

How far north we can afford the primary getting is variable. Given the very cold antecedent airmass at arrival and decent confluence and suppressive flow to our north we could survive a slightly further north transfer then in a less ideal setup. Of course at this range all that is irrelevant but just saying this run isn't unrealistic given those conditions. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

I brought it home... sort of.  The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run.  IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred

Look at the pressure differences and compare to 18z. When the primary is getting ready to enter KY the lowest pressure is way down in GA. Transfer is taking place and the primary is giving up.

This is a big difference from 18z where the secondary doesn't take over until NC and the primary is further north and west. I loved the gfs.  It's coming in line with the euro. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How far north we can afford the primary getting is variable. Given the very cold antecedent airmass at arrival and decent confluence and suppressive flow to our north we could survive a slightly further north transfer then in a less ideal setup. Of course at this range all that is irrelevant but just saying this run isn't unrealistic given those conditions. 

I wasn't saying it was... I just usually know where we want the primary to stop going N or NEward before transfer and when I see it get into KY I get a bit antsy hoping we have a quick transfer before we have to deal with the dreaded mix that is per usual

ETA:  Bob just posted before mine and I see what he said and it makes sense... both of your posts

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