psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It's going to be a mauling. That moisture feed slamming into that cold. Even if it tracks inside (doubtful it probably gets forced east from there) it will be a massive thump first this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Destruction yeah, destroyed. still ripping in DCA at 180. 996 off OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Yea, if it is going to run up west of the apps and jump then the 0z gfs is basically perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Faster arrival of the storm looks like a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 987mb 100-150 miles east of OC at 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 only 28 more runs - i'm sure it will be rock steady Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8-15” plus from Ezf to the Pa border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 GFS is screwing SNE like it's February 2010. And yes the low takes almost the same track as February 2010 and the high ahead of the storm is in the same spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Does the transfer produce its own cold air? The only an heights are over the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, if it is going to run up west of the apps and jump then the 0z gfs is basically perfect. Ok let's just lock that run up right now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Looked like Tenn/ Kentucky border at most lat with primary..we take Yep, and the lowest pressure was already in GA by then. This run is a textbook big storm for us. Def reminds me of Dec 09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Now time to retrograde back to O.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Bristow , warm up that Wrangler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yep, and the lowest pressure was already in GA by then. This run is a textbook big storm for us. Def reminds me of Dec 09. Wow don’t even get me going with that one! 2 footer for ROA and record 24 hr snowfall all the way up to you guys and philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Cmc is the same as the 18z gfs. It's ok though. It's catching up so next run will be money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’m hugging the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 7 minutes ago, Amped said: GFS is screwing SNE like it's February 2010. I normally don't engage in the New England rivalry but after some Boston flunkies insisted this was definitely a miller b New England year like 2005 and I was wrong to suggest the mid Atlantic would do well...I hope they smoke cirrus all winter while we post deck pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: Who’s posting the clown map? wrong map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Quite cold afterwards as well. High teens right after + highs barely above freezing the next day = deep winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 only 28 more runs - i'm sure it will be rock steadyThe gfs had this at 384. Were 56% home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I like this a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m hugging the gfs Where was your play by play? Yoda is good but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I like this a lot. We need to get this in nam range. Which is 6 hours before the storm starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where was your play by play? Yoda is good but... I brought it home... sort of. The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run. IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred when you look at hours 171 and 174 on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I brought it home... sort of. The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run. IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred How far north we can afford the primary getting is variable. Given the very cold antecedent airmass at arrival and decent confluence and suppressive flow to our north we could survive a slightly further north transfer then in a less ideal setup. Of course at this range all that is irrelevant but just saying this run isn't unrealistic given those conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Cwg snow index potential is 1 out of 10. Maybe the most useless index ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I brought it home... sort of. The primary still gets a bit too far north IMO... even though everyone loved the run. IWM had it bordering into SW VA before it fully transferred Look at the pressure differences and compare to 18z. When the primary is getting ready to enter KY the lowest pressure is way down in GA. Transfer is taking place and the primary is giving up. This is a big difference from 18z where the secondary doesn't take over until NC and the primary is further north and west. I loved the gfs. It's coming in line with the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How far north we can afford the primary getting is variable. Given the very cold antecedent airmass at arrival and decent confluence and suppressive flow to our north we could survive a slightly further north transfer then in a less ideal setup. Of course at this range all that is irrelevant but just saying this run isn't unrealistic given those conditions. I wasn't saying it was... I just usually know where we want the primary to stop going N or NEward before transfer and when I see it get into KY I get a bit antsy hoping we have a quick transfer before we have to deal with the dreaded mix that is per usual ETA: Bob just posted before mine and I see what he said and it makes sense... both of your posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Cwg snow index potential is 1 out of 10. Maybe the most useless index ever They have a timing criteria fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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