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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. I've had some great discussions with Iso over the years. He brings a comprehensive viewpoint that is unmatched on the board. I (and most regular posters) and very regional focused. Iso brings huge flavor to the big picture. 

When the Pac takes a dump on us it's usually stubborn to relinquish its stranglehold. Holiday week will likely be a transitional week at best and in typical MA fashion we'll have to wait our turn while the NE gets a good event first. Totally fine if that happens again as long as the pattern improves to something serviceable before the year is done. 

ISO is one of the very best here.  There a several mets that when they speak i really take note because they don't blow smoke and know their stuff when it comes to long range pattern recognition.  ISO and HM being two of the best. And of course our locals like Wes, wxusaf and the other red tags in here all know their stuff with our local climo once threats are on the table. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Thats a great reminder regarding the pos anomalies that we would see north of us. 

Some will think were in trouble but in Jan/Feb its not as big a deal and as you said it will be likely "cold enough" for it to snow.  

While i think your right that it may take from mid Jan onwards, I'd think that by this time next week, we may be seeing 10 day maps that get things looking more interesting.  Its no shutout pattern, so for me, thats a win in and of itself.  Transient is fine.

2003, 2010, and 2015 all did feature some minor snow events in early January. And I'm not predicting a wall to wall torch from now until mid january. I just consider anything before Jan 20th to be appetizers. The main course comes Jan 20 on imo. 

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jaydreb

jaydreb

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2003, 2010, and 2015 all did feature some minor snow events in early January. And I'm not predicting a wall to wall torch from now until mid january. I just consider anything before Jan 20th to be appetizers. The main course comes Jan 20 on imo. 

I understand it’s climo but having to wait another month for things to get good is disappointing and will lead to a very busy Panic Room.  Hopefully we at least get into some decent cold in early Jan and can track a few small events (only to watch them go to Boston).  

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I understand it’s climo but having to wait another month for things to get good is disappointing and will lead to a very busy Panic Room.  Hopefully we at least get into some decent cold in early Jan and can track a few small events (only to watch them go to Boston).  

The last 30 years D.C. averages about  4.5" of snow through Jan 15th.  DC is at 1.4" now. So if they get a couple minor events that add up to 3" total in the next month we are about where we should be.  Nino climo is especially back loaded too. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

2003, 2010, and 2015 all did feature some minor snow events in early January. And I'm not predicting a wall to wall torch from now until mid january. I just consider anything before Jan 20th to be appetizers. The main course comes Jan 20 on imo. 

Yeah i know you havent been spouting torch talk.  I think it possible to sneak 1 or 2 events w/ cold close enough to at least take the edge off of the "wasted" time waiting.  If this SSW spit continues, it will be cool to watch evolution and how it plays into Jan.  I'm rather green regarding how it will sensibly affect things, but look forward to seeing how it factors in.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I understand it’s climo but having to wait another month for things to get good is disappointing and will lead to a very busy Panic Room.  Hopefully we at least get into some decent cold in early Jan and can track a few small events (only to watch them go to Boston).  

With all due respect, if you understand it's climo.....then you should stop right there and be done w/ your statement.  As psu suggested, 3" is all that is normal, so while the pattern isnt great right now, its not impossible to "luck" your way into climo.  there are several opps for something showing on the models, and with a potential correction (as ISO alluded to), its reasonable to see a chance or 2 before a wholesale shift to what were all waiting for happens.

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted

Because I can be a bit obsessive quirky trends like this...I throw this random stat out there:

Since the 1883-84, 15 of the 20 winters that were preceded by 1" snowfall or more in November ended with above average snowfall for the year!

Huh...wonder why that is?

EDIT: These were BWI totals, sorry for the confusion

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smokeybandit

smokeybandit

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Because I can be a bit obsessive quirky trends like this...I throw this random stat out there:

Since the 1883-84, 15 of the 20 winters that were preceded by 1" snowfall or more in November ended with above average snowfall for the year!

Huh...wonder why that is?

EDIT: These were BWI totals, sorry for the confusion

Why?  Because it snowed in November those years?B)

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The last 30 years D.C. averages about  4.5" of snow through Jan 15th.  DC is at 1.4" now. So if they get a couple minor events that add up to 3" total in the next month we are about where we should be.  Nino climo is especially back loaded too. 

They already know all of this- and you know better than to think presenting facts are going to make people feel content with no snow for potentially the first 6 weeks of winter. Let em panic.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

They already know all of this- and you know better than to think presenting facts are going to make people feel content with no snow for potentially the first 6 weeks of winter. Let em panic.

You have more right to panic then some. A few of the people panicking already have 3-5" on the season.  I gues they will argue it doesn't count because it was fall. Just like March doesn't count. And any snow that melts within 24 hours or changes to rain. Or if it's too dry and sublimates or too wet and slushy. Or if it doesn't stick to roads. If we discounted all the snow that doesn't count according to them we would average 3" of "real" snow a year. lol. 

I know I'm not changing anyone's mind. But I still like to provide the counterpoint to the doom and gloom pov. 

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

Some glimmers of hope for the warm pattern not lasting into January. Eps opened up the spread late in the run and backed of a little with ridging in the east and hostile pac. Gefs is doing the same. Still looks hostile but not as dire as it's been. Keep that trend up and pray we move towards at least a seasonable setup before new years. Next 10 days are looking bleak no matter how you slice it. 

not if the 12z GEM is right lol

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wish we used the actual winter because our snow climo matches that way better. It would cut down on the yearly freak outs around Xmas when it doesn't snow if we didn't consider winter starting until late December. 

Yeah it does. Significant snow the first 3 weeks of Dec is pretty unusual for the majority of the sub forum.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Wait...what? What happened to after January 15th?

@C.A.P.E. See that? Confusion about what you meant, lol I think most people's definition of winter is the traditional date (at least that's how I think about it! And @psuhoffman is right...the traditional date does match our climo much better!)

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Fozz

Fozz

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I wish we used the actual winter because our snow climo matches that way better. It would cut down on the yearly freak outs around Xmas when it doesn't snow if we didn't consider winter starting until late December. 

Lately, I agree. But in the 00s, we had a lot of good Decembers while March was usually unimpressive. Now it's the other way around.

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