BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, H2O said: Gentle reminder 7 &$*$^%&#%^*@!! DAYS AWAY There will be lots of model changes every run so just wait and see. One run is not the end all be all. You have the wrong number of characters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Well it’s good thing this storm is not tomorrow. Happy hour GFS would have had most people in here like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 GFS still gave about 6-7 inches of snow to CHO before mixing. West of Washington and i95 still get snow with this last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Well it’s good thing this storm is not tomorrow. Happy hour GFS would have had most people in here like... On Dec 1st...in an El Niño year...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Animate the 18z GFS really fast, it looks good. Decent chance for a 12-24" storm. Im sorry pal....but sometimes........... You should change your name to AlternateUniverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Closing of at h5 so early is a new trend with the gfs today...delay that 6-12 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 We should be going out past December storms as well . Models+past storms= solid forecast 2003 and 2009 come to mind with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This panel says it all... Bob your right the gfs progression is not one the D.C. area typically scores a warning type event. That's probably an advisory snow to mix to rain type thing that evolution. But it's also not as far off as those thermals suggest either. The gfs has been running way way way too warm at the surface and mid levels in these types of situations again and again. Unless I see a thermal representation like that from the other guidance I wouldn't put much stock in it. There have been some runs of the Fv3 with a similar track and yea we mixed and rained but the thermals weren't as bad and there was more front end thump and even after the change it wasn't as bad as that panel. That's probably because the Fv3 has been doing better with the boundary and mid level temps. So I'm agreeing that the gfs as it is wouldn't be a great solution I don't think it's as far from one as those panels suggest. Get the transfer 50-75 miles southeast (a minuscule error for 180 hours) and it's a pretty good warning level event into 95 imo. Probably still would mix some but it's early December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 11 minutes ago, Snowlover101 said: We should be going out past December storms as well . Models+past storms= solid forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 Hilarious seeing the GFS amped up and the euro weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 New and improved GFS almost happy hours us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 No one and l mean no one look at FV3 snow map. Low crawling to OBX for 24 hrs Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I'll take the 18z FV3 to go please... nice run for us EZF to CHO and south pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I'll take the 18z FV3 to go please... nice run for us Us? lol Nice run for Springfield, VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hilarious seeing the GFS amped up and the euro weak. I was just thinking that. Bizzaro world! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Looks like the Euro and fv3 is on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 58 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not far at all from a big hit. A little tweaking and we are in business. It is a big hit for many of us as is. Lets not forget the Euro's temps at 12Z. I am not going to stress over the GFS temps at 8 days out. We all know the cold air will be entrenched better than what the model is showing. I was more worried about seeing a southern slider this run. Just keep the low position as shown for the next 8 days and I think most of us will end up very happy. Maybe not the eastern shore folks. But just about everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 To this untrained eye, looks like approx. 24 hours of light to moderate snow from the FV3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Snowlover101 said: A north trend over the next week and Dumfries will be in Jackpotville and the whole forum would be crushed. Overall it’s been an encouraging 24 hours of model runs IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Not much of a warm up on the 18z GEFS. Maybe a few days approaching 50? That is a couple degrees above avg for mid Dec. Not a favorable pattern for winter weather, but far from having the look of an early winter torch. Looks like the pattern should be moving towards more favorable as we approach the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I will not for one minute wish this storm north of the current euro solution or any other suppressed solution. I think there are many here who know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 18z gefs is the best run yet for the storm next weekend. Doesn't support the op much at all honestly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Not much of a warm up on the 18z GEFS. Maybe a few days approaching 50? That is a couple degrees above avg for mid Dec. Not a favorable pattern for winter weather, but far from having the look of an early winter torch. Looks like the pattern should be moving towards more favorable as we approach the holidays. Dont know if gefs are rushing things or not but the pattern certainly improves late in the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs is the best run yet for the storm next weekend. Doesn't support the op much at all honestly... Looks very similar to the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Dont know if gefs are rushing things or not but the pattern certainly improves late in the run... How can I access GEFS? And EPS for that matter? I use Tropical Tidbits to access most of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks very similar to the 12z EPS. I was literally typing the same thing. Looks almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks very similar to the 12z EPS. Yep. Snowfall mean (take that with a grain of salt) is pretty much identical to 12z EPS. Much better than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Looks very similar to the 12z EPS. Yes It does. No member runs the primary into western KY either. One runs up into WV but almost all the others have a great track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: How can I access GEFS? And EPS for that matter? I use Tropical Tidbits to access most of the models. You can't with snowmaps without subscriptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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