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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF

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34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This panel says it all...

gfs_T850_neus_35.png

Bob your right the gfs progression is not one the D.C. area typically scores a warning type event. That's probably an advisory snow to mix to rain type thing that evolution. But it's also not as far off as those thermals suggest either. The gfs has been running way way way too warm at the surface and mid levels in these types of situations again and again. Unless I see a thermal representation like that from the other guidance I wouldn't put much stock in it. There have been some runs of the Fv3 with a similar track and yea we mixed and rained but the thermals weren't as bad and there was more front end thump and even after the change it wasn't as bad as that panel. That's probably because the Fv3 has been doing better with the boundary and mid level temps. So I'm agreeing that the gfs as it is wouldn't be a great solution I don't think it's as far from one as those panels suggest. Get the transfer 50-75 miles southeast (a minuscule error for 180 hours) and it's a pretty good warning level event into 95 imo. Probably still would mix some but it's early December!

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58 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not far at all from a big hit. A little tweaking and we are in business.

It is a big hit for many of us as is. Lets not forget the Euro's temps at 12Z. I am not going to stress over the GFS temps at 8 days out. We all know the cold air will be entrenched better than what the model is showing. I was more worried about seeing a southern slider this run. Just keep the low position as shown for the next 8 days and I think most of us will end up very happy. Maybe not the eastern shore folks. But just about everyone else.

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Not much of a warm up on the 18z GEFS. Maybe a few days approaching 50? That is a couple degrees above avg for mid Dec. Not a favorable pattern for winter weather, but far from having the look of an early winter torch. Looks like the pattern should be moving towards more favorable as we approach the holidays.

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5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not much of a warm up on the 18z GEFS. Maybe a few days approaching 50? That is a couple degrees above avg for mid Dec. Not a favorable pattern for winter weather, but far from having the look of an early winter torch. Looks like the pattern should be moving towards more favorable as we approach the holidays.

Dont know if gefs are rushing things or not but the pattern certainly improves late in the run...

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