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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

@MD Snow to add to what bob said most of us all know that day 10+ stuff is low probability. And we would much rather be discussing a threat within the short or medium range. When we are spending a lot of time in here on day 10-15 it's usually because right now sucks. lol. 

But if we are going to discuss long range the ensembles and analog methodology using pattern recognition are the only tools. Both come with limitations and low skill at that range. So unless we want to simply ignore anything past a week we have to discuss projections that we know are at risk of being wrong. That's the game. 

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Scarlet Pimpernel

Scarlet Pimpernel

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Prime snow season is January 20-February 20. 

Not only that, but we've had several March snows in the past few years, and some of those were rather significant.  And more than a couple that occurred during the daylight hours.  I thought the whole "sun angle" argument was squashed as being overblown long ago.  Not saying it's no issue in late Feb-Mar compared to mid-winter, but still.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not only that, but we've had several March snows in the past few years, and some of those were rather significant.  And more than a couple that occurred during the daylight hours.  I thought the whole "sun angle" argument was squashed as being overblown long ago.  Not saying it's no issue in late Feb-Mar compared to mid-winter, but still.

You are basing your argument on logic, reason, and science. They are basing theirs on "but I want it to snow right now". 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@MD SnowWhen we are spending a lot of time in here on day 10-15 it's usually because right now sucks. lol. 

Man, isn't that the truth...lol. People wonder why we spend so much time d10-15? You nailed the answer. It sucks a lot around here in pretty much all but a few very rare winter seasons. 

If anyone really believes that there is zero skill beyond 7-10 days then they should ignore all long range threads completely. It's all we have the majority of the time. 

Christmas could pan out with some sort of event. I'm not crapping on the idea. It's hostile as F before and after so I won't bite on anything until it's 5-6 days away max.

I'm seeing a lot of posts that indicate people dont want to believe how bad it might be for a while deflection with models suck, volatility, nobody knows, and all that. However, i'd love to hear a good thesis as to why it's not going to be a rough road for a while and that guidance is totally wrong. The only one I can come up with is model output has a programming error that flipped the h5 color scale. Lol

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted
Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You could argue that...in a Nina, we'd be looking at a colder beginning of the year (like last year!)

last year...the models were showing a Nino type STJ for the last week of December....that disappeared of course--maybe next week the Nina Features in a Nino can dissappear too lol

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MD Snow

MD Snow

Posted
Posted

@Bob Chill @psuhoffman

Thanks for the feedback. I get it and I know it can be useful. The problem is, even after years of tracking and reading, I still have a hard time making sense of how to make  sense of stuff enough to offer any good analysis of things in the long range. lol. So I keep it simple and let you all tackle trying to make sense of it all. I am thankful for you all and others taking time to explain stuff and keep trying to provide great analysis even when there is nothing very interesting on the horizon. Thanks! 

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The real warmth will come first week of Jan when the +epo reloads into beast mode and the SE ridge pops a woody. 

You know what Bob this to me is a bit surprising , I thought up until a week ago that the warm up would be muted and we be back in the game.

Many things had me feeling like this, such as cold was winning out more than warmth, snow cover advance, etc. 

I am not sure what to think now. 

I do have one idea though.  I feel we run-up to much above normal in December,  similiar to early October and then a sudden flip into deep winter, such as what took place in early November.  Just a feeling. I think the odds of an active snow fall period during the snap back is likely. 

If indeed the strat warm up puts us in the game maybe Jan delivers more snow than Feb., just speculation.  It seems you can only pull back so much until a counter pattern pops back in. We all know the players are there to deliver for us eventually.  

 

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

I still have hope for something around Christmas. We're not that far off from a small/med. Event.

Nice high pressure to the north and Northwest.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_38.png

As do I...the window isn't WIDE open...but unlike 90% of our Christmases...it definitely ain't shut either! Will be interesting to see how it evolves...

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Yep. Because it ain't pretty right after our 2-3 day threat window. 

I think it would be a nice boon to this subforum...one that could carry our snow psyches through the shutout period, lol (interesting how that slightly open window happens to come at Christmas and just for that specific period...will it be a poetic gift, or a disappointing irony? Stay tuned!)

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

@frd unfortunately we seem to be lasering in on a combo of a hideous pacific with a side order of crappy high latitudes. If that doesn't change or get pushed back over the next week then we all know what to expect... a period similar to what we saw in early 06-07 or 08-09 to name a few. Not saying those winters are analogs but sensible wx will feature similar wx to what we saw in Dec/early Jan in those winters. 

3 gfs runs in a row showing a strat split though. 18z is the best one yet... 

gfs_Tz10_nhem_33.png

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not saying those winters are analogs but sensible wx will feature similar wx to what we saw in Dec/early Jan in those winters. 

3 gfs runs in a row showing a strat split though. 18z is the best one yet... 

Yeah we will see. Weather forecasting is a humbling experience.   

I feel like a tech savvy James Bond villian is targeting his weather weapon on the snow weenies, creating warmth and world turmoil . 

Ha ha    

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frd

frd

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Looks like next week’s flooding storm is already locked in.  GFS run is basically a parade of rain storms all of which will certainly verify.

When we had our cold days it was dry for 15 days in a row, then the warmth and the rain returns. The grass is a swamp again and no heat to dry it up. 

Then again not really prime climo still,  but when the moisture returns in Jan to Feb I hope it is an icebox here. I long for a cold storm , with snow falling at 12 degrees F.   

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BristowWx

BristowWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, jaydreb said:

Looks like next week’s flooding storm is already locked in.  GFS run is basically a parade of rain storms all of which will certainly verify.  

3602A783-CAA2-47BA-8578-FE2530884CA0.png

Agree with that.  This weekend rain has been showing up for 10 days...it evolved just like it was modeled.  We all picked the most frustrating hobby...only worse hobby might be gambling but only slots.  Both often prove futile and depressing.  

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Zach’s Pop

Zach’s Pop

Posted
Posted

Last four runs of the GEFS. Tonight’s 18z GEFS beginning developing a east based -NAO which in turn starts to squash the south east ridge. Look for that to continue in the next week or so and while there will be a bad period for a bit, it won’t be the doom and gloom scenario some have painted. 

000835CA-6C15-4B1B-81EA-943D081BA0BC.gif

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showmethesnow

showmethesnow

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Agree with that.  This weekend rain has been showing up for 10 days...it evolved just like it was modeled.  We all picked the most frustrating hobby...only worse hobby might be gambling but only slots.  Both often prove futile and depressing.  

Funny you mention that. As I watched the models tank the last few days I decided I might as well take advantage of what favors to be a slow early January time period. Just booked a 10 day trip out to Vegas. And yes, I love to play my slots. Figured if I was going to be frustrated I might as well do it in style and drunk as a skunk. :D

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