December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

As I'm looking for the silver lining, I've always been intrigued by the SSW, and its affects, I'm wondering if the current episode (that seems to have legs) might be able to help to get us back to a more favorable look, or further enhance the effects of the Nino, but my fear is that it might take till late Jan, as i've read that its typically a 30ish day lag time for downwelling to occur at levels we want to look at.  IF not a full blown SSW, my wonder is that even if its just a peturbation, could that be enough to dislodge the cold and get this party started sooner than later.  Thoughts?

[Chris78]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Long range outlook is about as ugly as it gets.  All the fake TV mets in the Baltimore and DC markets that called for a big winter (cough, Doug K, cough) are in trouble.

I think we can still have a good winter but  I have always thought to have a special winter would require us to score a time or 2  in December. I was hoping the AO was going to be more in the negative territory for December. That is concerning to me.

[Maestrobjwa]

Call me crazy (and ya wouldn't be far off...lol), but I'm still holding out some hope for a Christmas fluke...GFS and GEM still showing energy in the vicinity...good enough for me to keep watching! Fluke clipper or something? Lol Perhaps things are chaotic enough that something breaking the right way is still an option? (I mean, there does seem to be SOME cold air nearby on the models, right?) Maybe some room to trend better...(and possibly at the last minute, lol)

[Bob Chill]

30 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

As I'm looking for the silver lining, I've always been intrigued by the SSW, and its affects, I'm wondering if the current episode (that seems to have legs) might be able to help to get us back to a more favorable look, or further enhance the effects of the Nino, but my fear is that it might take till late Jan, as i've read that its typically a 30ish day lag time for downwelling to occur at levels we want to look at.  IF not a full blown SSW, my wonder is that even if its just a peturbation, could that be enough to dislodge the cold and get this party started sooner than later.  Thoughts?

You summed it up perfectly. SSW doesn't guaranty an immediate or even delayed response but it might so it's worth watching. If you go back through time and re-read the SSW talk over the years there's a pretty dismal history. Meaning that it rarely (if ever) saves us. I personally can't think of 1 time in the last 10 years where it actually saves us. Will this year be different? Maybe... we're starting off with a much weaker strat PV than anytime post 2011 so that's good. It's a crawl/walk/run process so lets get past the first part (the actual event) and see if it's as robust as the gfs/gefs is showing. Then we can start talking about possible effects (if any) on our sensible wx. 

I've pretty much punted the rest of December. I've seen enough and I doubt things will suddenly turn around. Never rule out a fluke of course but overall it's looking more grim every day and now that the GEFS and EPS agree it's probably safe to say there's no avoiding a notsogreat snow pattern for a while.  If it's as bad as it looks now close to the end of Dec then it will probably take a week or 2 in Jan before anything good can happen (normal stuff here). I do expect things to become favorable sometime in Jan (like PSU and others) but we're way too far away in time to begin speculating about it other than WAGs. 

I generally only look out as far as the regular ensembles so my grim view of things doesn't remotely include January. At least not yet. We go through this same cycle practically every single winter so it's as normal as a sunrise. Sometimes things click and we rock and other times a return to good keeps getting pushed further and further away until the grass starts growing again. 

[BristowWx]

28 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

I think we can still have a good winter but  I have always thought to have a special winter would require us to score a time or 2  in December. I was hoping the AO was going to be more in the negative territory for December. That is concerning to me.

Considering it always takes a bit longer to change the pattern and we usually need some luck thrown in I think Feb will be decent even if we have to punt January.  

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Way way way too early to be saying that.  I’m too lazy to go back and look but if I remember correctly most of the winter outlooks called for an AN December, flip in January, and rocking in February.  I know people PANIC here when its not snowing everyday in December and considering our history of failures here, a backloaded winter is not something you want to pin your hopes on, but it seems like so far, this winter is going as forecasted.

The models probably rushed the epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies for the end of December into January...my guess says that verifies mid to late January onwards.  Then tracking begins. 

We know the next 4 weeks are going to suck...might as well accept that and look for the (hopefully) positive changes that will show up.

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

[pasnownut]

@Bob Chill thx Bob.  Anxious to see how this SSW evolves, and agree that it has been a rarity to see it work into guidance.  Just sounds like this one might be the real deal.  fwiw, like you, psu and others, I'm nowhere near throwin any towels in, but last week of dec looks not so festive, and as you've been touting.  Not a "good" call, but a nice one by you.  I thought i saw enough to find a way out, and guess I was blinded by the Christmas spirit (or spirits...or something).  Long ago we knew December was a bonus month for any white gold, so I'll just chase the pill w/ some spiked eggnog, and like i suggested in the Cent pa thread, I think in a week (or so), we'll be back to better looks on guidance.  

 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

that IS a rather bold statement, and one I'm not sure why you are saying.....

I cant believe your suggesting the sun angle talk in mid december...thats like Weenie Of The Year material right there.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

Very bold

Majority of winter forecasts had this month being the warmest.

[frd]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

Actually I think even if the best pattern of the winter sets in  say Jan 15 th  20 th you could have a period of cold that storminess that lasts for a while.    

Even when the SPV sets up shop on the other side of the pole after a displacement there have been times in the past  where it has been very cold here, with a long duration of snow cover on the ground.  

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Very bold

Majority of winter forecasts had this month being the warmest.

Yeah but there was the mid long range that said it would be memorable around Thanksgiving.  No one expected this.  Punting December...2 weeks in January...bad memorable perhaps.  Of course no one really knows at this point 

[EastCoast NPZ]

12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

that IS a rather bold statement, and one I'm not sure why you are saying.....

I cant believe your suggesting the sun angle talk in mid december...thats like Weenie Of The Year material right there.

He's talking about wasting the next 4 weeks, which takes us to mid Jan towards Feb, where temps start rising faster than a jack rabbit on a date.

[Bob Chill]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Volatility. Just made a lengthy post regarding this in the philly sub forum

From what I'm seeing volatility is going away. The -EPO/cold look during Christmas week has vanished. There was a bit of a model war going on about that but all ens guidance has converged on the same idea now. It's a pretty bad idea but there's full agreement that the pac is going to turn to sh!t and stay there through the end of the month.  12z GEFS is another run of consistency and agreement so I'm not seeing much volatility at all anymore. 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's talking about wasting the next 4 weeks, which takes us to mid Jan towards Feb, where temps start rising faster than a jack rabbit on a date.

I know what he’s talking about but mid Jan is no time to be discussing “wasted snow”. That’s all. Jack rabbit in a date. I like that one. Lol

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

If that's the case then winter is toast.  We are going to waste the majority of low sun angle and prime season.

Prime snow season is January 20-February 20. 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

He's talking about wasting the next 4 weeks, which takes us to mid Jan towards Feb, where temps start rising faster than a jack rabbit on a date.

Temps start to spike up after feb 20th. January 20-feb 20 is out snowiest 4 week period. That's our climo.  I would suggest against punting out snowiest month if the year if you like snow. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I know what he’s talking about but mid Jan is no time to be discussing “wasted snow”. That’s all. Jack rabbit in a date. I like that one. Lol

I borrowed it from A Christmas Story

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

lol El Nino

[midatlanticweather]

So another ark moment around Christmas and then a heat wave. Great.. The Grinch stole Christmas 

 

[psuhoffman]

8 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Perhaps a baby step at the end of the 0z EPS run. Some improvement in the NPAC/AK and normal h5 heights in the western US.

If we look at both how guidance progresses and how things have been working this year...the pattern is likely to retrograde not progress. The AK trough gets southwest of AK then ridging builds into the AO space and troughing will develop in the east. But that there isn't really any closer to that. And I doubt it will be until either the soi crashes or the mjo gets out of phases 4-7

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

The El Nino burst is still happening, but it's really far west. This is what you would see in a newly developing El Nino. 

[Bob Chill]

At least the euro tossed a little hope in the mix for a fluke on Christmas. Too much northern stream this run but whenever there's close spacing with shortwaves like this it's possible to get something workable inside of a very brief window.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

These storms are monsters. I would think there would be a blizzard in January or February

[Maestrobjwa]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the euro tossed a little hope in the mix for a fluke on Christmas. Too much northern stream this run but whenever there's close spacing with shortwaves like this it's possible to get something workable inside of a very brief window.

I've had my untrained eye on the Christmas fluke...I hope so! It would make the rest of the month more bearable, weather-wise!

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

This is called +AAM, late blooming Nino's. 

[MD Snow]

41 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

At least the euro tossed a little hope in the mix for a fluke on Christmas. Too much northern stream this run but whenever there's close spacing with shortwaves like this it's possible to get something workable inside of a very brief window.

 

Both GFS and GGEM have something in that time period as well. The only thing we've got to watch at this point. 

My two cents briefly, I learn a ton from all of the smarter posters like PSU and Chill on this board. Still can't grasp everything that is talked about when it comes to winter weather. However, for me, as someone who doesn't get to wrapped up in all of the science, I can make a couple observations that keep me grounded when a lot seems lost. 

1. Models and ensembles are great inside 7 days. Outside of 7 days they shouldn't be given as much weight as they are given on this board.  

2. There have been many times over the years where people here say that it's a terrible pattern and we end up with a small advisory level event. And there are good patterns that give us absolutely nothing. Believe me it happens every year. 

3. Every year we are teased with amazing patterns in the long range that trend to crap as it gets closer. 

4. Often we are about to "put a fork in it" because ensembles show a "torch" in a month only to completely change to a great pattern as it gets closer. 

I know, I know, sometimes they are right but more often than not it seems that they are wrong in the long range. So I say all this to just remind myself that it isn't even officially winter yet. We still have 3 months of chances. We may get a fluke event around Christmas which would be a huge win in my book. I for one will just let the winter play out until making a blanket statement about how terrible it's going to be before it even starts. 

[Scraff]

28 minutes ago, MD Snow said:

Both GFS and GGEM have something in that time period as well. The only thing we've got to watch at this point. 

My two cents briefly, I learn a ton from all of the smarter posters like PSU and Chill on this board. Still can't grasp everything that is talked about when it comes to winter weather. However, for me, as someone who doesn't get to wrapped up in all of the science, I can make a couple observations that keep me grounded when a lot seems lost. 

1. Models and ensembles are great inside 7 days. Outside of 7 days they shouldn't be given as much weight as they are given on this board.  

2. There have been many times over the years where people here say that it's a terrible pattern and we end up with a small advisory level event. And there are good patterns that give us absolutely nothing. Believe me it happens every year. 

3. Every year we are teased with amazing patterns in the long range that trend to crap as it gets closer. 

4. Often we are about to "put a fork in it" because ensembles show a "torch" in a month only to completely change to a great pattern as it gets closer. 

I know, I know, sometimes they are right but more often than not it seems that they are wrong in the long range. So I say all this to just remind myself that it isn't even officially winter yet. We still have 3 months of chances. We may get a fluke event around Christmas which would be a huge win in my book. I for one will just let the winter play out until making a blanket statement about how terrible it's going to be before it even starts. 

Very good post and lots of truth to that. However, if their was a “dislike” button in here, JI would figure out way to keep hitting it so the dislike totals on your post would cause the server to crash. 

[Bob Chill]

@MD Snow

I don't disagree with your points but we probably have different perspectives. Ens are the best available tools we have by far for figuring out what is possible with sensible wx at longer ranges. Certainly far superior to ops because it's impossible to accurately model discrete sensible wx beyond a week. I do believe ensembles are very useful and relatively accurate with general height anomaly placements. The stronger the anomaly showing up the higher the odds of accuracy. Think about the last 3 years or so. The nasty blue ball of lower heights in the AO/NAO domain spaces was very accurately modeled well beyond 7 days and verified very well over and over again. Same with the EPO ridge. Pretty accurate there too. 

Ensembles are good for getting a general feel for where anomaly placements are more likely than not to occur then you can a general idea what it means for specific areas. Right now we're seeing pretty prominent height anomalies indicating a return to a +EPO/+AO regime in over the next 2 weeks. We already know what that usually means for our area. Can we get a discrete fluke during that time? Absolutely. More unlikely than likely but it's possible. If it happens but the ensembles nailed the longwave pattern, it doesn't mean a model fail because it snowed. It would only be a model fail if the +EPO/+AO (or whatever prominent pattern is showing) never materializes. See where I'm coming from? A model fail in the long range only applies when the long wave features failed. Not because it snowed or didn't snow. 

Since mid-Nov, 2 week guidance has been really good. Exceptionally good imho. The cold period in late Nov/early Dec was showing up 2 weeks in advance, the good storm window showed up 2 weeks in advance, and now the return to a pacific maritime mild period was showing up 2 weeks in advance. All very accurate. We didn't get a storm during the good window but it certainly wasn't a model fail. 

From my perspective, 2 week guidance has been pretty stellar over the last month. But I only look at long range weather in a very general sense. 

[Ji]

well the good thing...is the warmest anomolies heading into new year are over us. If were going to warm...might as well milk it

[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

well the good thing...is the warmest anomolies heading into new year are over us. If were going to warm...might as well milk it

Record highs?  Maybe not but certainly 60 plus.  Not too shabby for that date on the calendar.