December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

by the 384....its the worst disaster since 01-02

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

by the 384....its the worst disaster since 01-02

 

That is literally the complete opposite of what we want. Flip the colors and we would be excited. lol 

[cbmclean]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is literally the complete opposite of what we want. Flip the colors and we would be excited. lol 

Nothing is ever easy, is it?

[cbmclean]

End run GEFS doesn't look quite as horrible.  Still nothing to get excited about.  Still has that pesky Alaska low.

 

[SnowGoose69]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That is literally the complete opposite of what we want. Flip the colors and we would be excited. lol 

The FV3 at 384 is close to the opposite.  No -NAO though and PV is practically at the NP but there’s a massive ridge off the west coast and an Aleutian low 

[CAPE]

Perhaps a baby step at the end of the 0z EPS run. Some improvement in the NPAC/AK and normal h5 heights in the western US.

[Wonderdog]

If you look at the 500's just going back a day and a half, it's like night and day for the 22nd storm. How can their be any confidence in long range depictions from the models going out 15 or so days?

[wasnow215]

54 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

If you look at the 500's just going back a day and a half, it's like night and day for the 22nd storm. How can their be any confidence in long range depictions from the models going out 15 or so days?

There isn’t. 

[Ji]

what happened to the cold centered around Christmas?

[BristowWx]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

what happened to the cold centered around Christmas?

Gone.  6z GFS was an ugly run of rain storms and warmth.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

what happened to the cold centered around Christmas?

In Mexico, of course.

Did you really think it would be cold here on Christmas?  

[frd]

8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The FV3 at 384 is close to the opposite.  No -NAO though and PV is practically at the NP but there’s a massive ridge off the west coast and an Aleutian low 

The models seem to be struggling a lot, and the play down of the cold from the weeklies seem to be lining up with the long range models now.  Frankly, yes it makes sense that many Nino Decembers are warm, but this is a strange Nino to me . More Nina at many times, and the SOI now at plus 16. 

Seems to be many opposing indicies causing stress to the modeling.

I did bring up a month ago that many times predicted cold on the long range in Nino Decembers will trend warmer the closer you get to December and while in December for that matter as well. And, for various reasons, to more closely resemble typical warm Nino backgroud states. 

Also, I know there is a lag from any strat warming most times but not really seeing that yet. 

Any ideas why you think the models are having such a difficult time?   

 

 

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, Ji said:

what happened to the cold centered around Christmas?

I wonder if the current soi spike has to do with the sudden erosion of the look around Xmas.  The mjo will be going through phase 5 and a few days ago the pattern looked like a nino phase 5. But the soi has spiked into Nina territory and now suddenly the pattern morphed into a Nina looking phase 5. Bottom line is I think we're sunk until we get the mjo back into phase 8-3.  Probably around Jan 10. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

The models seem to be struggling a lot, and the play down of the cold from the weeklies seem to be lining up with the long range models now.  Frankly, yes it makes sense that many Nino Decembers are warm, but this is a strange Nino to me . More Nina at many times, and the SOI now at plus 16. 

Seems to be many opposing indicies causing stress to the modeling.

I did bring up a month ago that many times predicted cold on the long range in Nino Decembers will trend warmer the closer you get to December and while in December for that matter as well. And, for various reasons, to more closely resemble typical warm Nino backgroud states. 

Also, I know there is a lag from any strat warming most times but not really seeing that yet. 

Any ideas why you think the models are having such a difficult time?   

 

 

The start warm would produce results for a couple more weeks. And the really long range guidance does show blocking developing by mid January. We will see. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wonder if the current soi spike has to do with the sudden erosion of the look around Xmas.  The mjo will be going through phase 5 and a few days ago the pattern looked like a nino phase 5. But the soi has spiked into Nina territory and now suddenly the pattern morphed into a Nina looking phase 5. Bottom line is I think we're sunk until we get the mjo back into phase 8-3.  Probably around Jan 10. 

I will say this, the month that was/is averaging below normal will end above normal and those with a cold December will not verify. 

However the for many calling for plus 2 to plus 4 like Matt at the CWG did well.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Long range outlook is about as ugly as it gets.  All the fake TV mets in the Baltimore and DC markets that called for a big winter (cough, Doug K, cough) are in trouble.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The start warm would produce results for a couple more weeks. And the really long range guidance does show blocking developing by mid January. We will see. 

I know I always post on the strat and I do admit it is not the one all, or all centric point, but still can yield sensible weather effects here and in the NH. Sometimes where as you know can be in question.  We will see. We are getting closer to real times events up there. 

Maybe it ups the ante when it does get colder or maybe not. I think all the cards for this winter are still somewhat hidden from view. 

[frd]

From @bluewave this is a great read here. I had to share it here :

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.

[nj2va]

10 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Long range outlook is about as ugly as it gets.  All the fake TV mets in the Baltimore and DC markets that called for a big winter (cough, Doug K, cough) are in trouble.

Way way way too early to be saying that.  I’m too lazy to go back and look but if I remember correctly most of the winter outlooks called for an AN December, flip in January, and rocking in February.  I know people PANIC here when its not snowing everyday in December and considering our history of failures here, a backloaded winter is not something you want to pin your hopes on, but it seems like so far, this winter is going as forecasted.

The models probably rushed the epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies for the end of December into January...my guess says that verifies mid to late January onwards.  Then tracking begins. 

We know the next 4 weeks are going to suck...might as well accept that and look for the (hopefully) positive changes that will show up.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

what happened to the cold centered around Christmas?

Volatility. Just made a lengthy post regarding this in the philly sub forum

[Bob Chill]

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

If you look at the 500's just going back a day and a half, it's like night and day for the 22nd storm. How can their be any confidence in long range depictions from the models going out 15 or so days?

That's not what is concerning. Ensembles are converging quite efficiently right now that the long wave pattern coming up is not conducive to snowfall basically anywhere along the east coast for a while. Ops will jump all over  with location/timing but the underlying pattern looks terrible. 

You can never rule out a fluke or miracle in any pattern but its getting ugly. Down right hideous for the time being. Keep expectations very low. 

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Way way way too early to be saying that.  I’m too lazy to go back and look but if I remember correctly most of the winter outlooks called for an AN December, flip in January, and rocking in February.  I know people PANIC here when its not snowing everyday in December and considering our history of failures here, a backloaded winter is not something you want to pin your hopes on, but it seems like so far, this winter is going as forecasted.

The models probably rushed the epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies for the end of December into January...my guess says that verifies mid to late January onwards.  Then tracking begins. 

We know the next 4 weeks are going to suck...might as well accept that and look for the (hopefully) positive changes that will show up.

LR guidance is far from perfect, as we all well know. It seems the strength of the MJO and (lack of) progression into the better phases may be the biggest culprit for screwing up the pattern currently. But we also have a lot going on way upstairs with the SPV that may not be picked up by the guidance for another week or so. Hopefully that Pac wave-train will shift phase some to allow more ridging in the western US and up into AK. I am hoping that's where the 0z EPS is heading at the end of its run.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Way way way too early to be saying that.  I’m too lazy to go back and look but if I remember correctly most of the winter outlooks called for an AN December, flip in January, and rocking in February.  I know people PANIC here when its not snowing everyday in December and considering our history of failures here, a backloaded winter is not something you want to pin your hopes on, but it seems like so far, this winter is going as forecasted.

The models probably rushed the epic pattern that showed up in the weeklies for the end of December into January...my guess says that verifies mid to late January onwards.  Then tracking begins. 

We know the next 4 weeks are going to suck...might as well accept that and look for the (hopefully) positive changes that will show up.

yeah, was just reminding myself that a few weeks back back half of December was looking warm, and that surely seems to be gaining traction. 

Even though we recently were teased w/ better LR looks, that surely has eroded, so hopefully once to Christmas, we can start seeing 500mb maps start to match up in the extended.  Hate to say it, but Bob sniffed this rat out.  Didn't want to believe him, but it is what it is. Looking like a good call. 

The optimist in me says this week isnt horrid, so lets get through it and see where we go from there.  (By horrid, i mean no 70's).  Yes we may likely be on the wrong side of storms, but while i want snow....i HATE anomalous warmth around the holidays.

 

[jackb979]

[frd]

of interest 

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     Christopher Russell‏ @Christo42026449 22h22 hours ago

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     Replying to @DrAHButler

     Hay Doc quick question if a ssw were to occur would it be able to Trump the mjo I know it's supposed be going into phase 5 at least according to the European modelrect message

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     Amy H Butler‏ @DrAHButler 22h22 hours ago

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     For east USA- Probably depends a lot on strength of mjo and if there's downward coupling. SSW impacts could be greater on short timescales if downward coupling is substantial. Hard to tell yet if that's the case for this event.

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[frd]

@psuhoffman

This has happened before as you can see below,  but looking at the dips it seems the drop this time is possibly a bit deeper this time moving forward. Max drops 1 to 1.5     Then hopefully we bounce back up after we leave the Maritime forcing state.  

Sure is messing up the El Nino.

   

 

[frd]

So like this is not the first warm December 

Yeah baby like like Dejavu  :-(     

Great post by Ben 

 

 

[frd]

@Bob Chill

Bob, what do you see here? I ike your opinion.

The JMA does not match, I thought, the more ideal Euro seasonals and UkMET seasonals, but maybe that's me.  

 I see the blocking still there and shifting in time, but what do you think about the general implications and placements of the anomalies regarding our back yards ?  ( Miller B's , vs Miller As, NJ clippers,  versus over-running ) Thanks !  

 

 

[Bob Chill]

@frd

Jamstec looks acceptable. Northern stream progressive flow in Jan then pretty good FM. 

I generally don't worry about seasonals (good or bad). Of course I want to see epic patterns but my confidence is pretty low in them getting it right. Sometimes they do very well and other times completely mislead us. Anyone's guess what happens this year. 

I'd say enough guidance has shown favorable blocking this year to take it seriously. Prob something that will verify in some fashion. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd not bob but details on seasonal models can be fluid. But give me that look up too on both sides along with low heights to our northeast (that's the biggest correlation to snow actually) and I'll take my chances. 

Btw did anyone notice the cfs has completely flipped and now matches the euro weekly pattern progression perfectly. I know long range guidance is iffy. But basically all guidance says around Jan 10-20 the AK trough retrogrades and we flip to a -nao AO epo pattern.  That also fits modoki nino climo. It also fits the timing of the mjo progression. So until we see signs this has gone wrong I will have faith. 

But the pattern looks like total crap until mid January