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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS keeps getting worse. Now showing a +EPO and BN heights in AK to go along with the trough west/ridge east. It's a pretty warm type of pattern in the east. Even SNE/NE is probably shut out if that's what happens. These are the types of patterns that take a while to get out of because north america gets flooded with pacific air. 

We really need to hope the gfs is onto something with the neg nao looks it's been showing. Other than that possibility, my optimism is absent. 

If the EPS has the right idea we may be looking at mid January realistically before the pattern gets decent again. Some help in the NA sure would help offset the badness in the NPAC if it indeed goes to crap. I guess the optimistic take is we muddle through the bad MJO phases, the SPV keeps taking a beating, and we see the ensembles respond with better looks sooner. Otherwise it may be shades down for 3 weeks or so.

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Ji

Ji

Posted
Posted

we have been cold from about Nov 10 to today. Lets say 6 weeks.....without looking at models or anything..you would naturally expect the pattern to flip after 6 weeks of the same  pattern. Maybe it was wishful thinking to these models that showed an epic late Dec/early January.  So yea...mid January makes sense. But waiting that long is going to suck

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midatlanticweather

midatlanticweather

Posted
Posted

Well dang! Time to go guzzle some eggnog!

I think there is a general trend to crappy - how we get there is in debate..how long we stay there is based on how bad of a pattern we are talking. As far as a big rainstorm, you can bet that will happen! We only struggle to get moisture when it is cold. Working on shattering every rain record we can!

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have been cold from about Nov 10 to today. Lets say 6 weeks.....without looking at models or anything..you would naturally expect the pattern to flip after 6 weeks of the same  pattern. Maybe it was wishful thinking to these models that showed an epic late Dec/early January.  So yea...mid January makes sense. But waiting that long is going to suck

I agree with the flip after 4-6 weeks or whatever but one thing the last 6 weeks didn't do is show us a good winter base state or hemispheric pattern. The AO has been pretty ambiguous in regards to what state will be predominant. I was hoping for a clearer signal. The anomalous AO Dec rule isn't going to apply this year. Good for not worrying about raging positive but the neg ao period was pretty short and it's postive now. Not a good leading indicator right?

It's been pretty cold overall but the pattern hasn't been all that good for snow. The southern slider was a good pattern but it was transient. That can happen any winter (15-16 for example). 

Now the pac is going to flip on us which is normal and expected. Fine... a couple weeks of rough times but then what? Revert back to what we just had the last 3 weeks? It would be workable but not something that would get me excited.

Outside of NNE, there really hasn't been much to cheer about yet and what's coming over the next 1-2 weeks is lame for the entire east coast. One sign of a prolific winter normally includes good snow in SNE during Dec even if we get screwed in the MA. Not a good start anywhere north of the southern storm in a transient pattern last weekend. 

Again, I'm not down on winter at all yet. Things could flip like many previous winters where mid Jan through early March delivers. The only thing that troubles me is the pattern so far that's on the books has been so-so and where things are headed through the holidays doesn't give me a reason to believe things will get good.

Unreliable uber long lead guidance like the weeklies show promise but I'd feel a lot better if we already had a nice longwave pattern. 13-14 showed some promise in Dec. 14-15 showed early signs too and destroyed SNE for weeks before our number was called and the rest is history. 

One thing that would make me feel a lot better would be the nao tanking before the end of the month. Even if it gets offset by a crap Pac, just having strong neg nao happen would be a nice clue in real time that supports big storm potential down the line. 

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bob Chill said:

Crap, and just like that the gefs looks just like the eps around AK. The AK trough better not become a stable feature this winter. Models are moving away from the -epo idea. Now it's just a transient feature on guidance through the end of the month. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

Wow...nothing but negative trends lately...smh

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Crap, and just like that the gefs looks just like the eps around AK. The AK trough better not become a stable feature this winter. Models are moving away from the -epo idea. Now it's just a transient feature on guidance through the end of the month. 

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_65.png

I'd like to see how this kind of start compares to other winters that would eventually produce...I mean, does this look more like a nina, or is it just a broken nino where very little seems to be going right right now?

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AfewUniversesBelowNormal

AfewUniversesBelowNormal

Posted
Posted

The Atlantic Hadley Cell at 850mb was +30% of normal last Winter DJF. I don't know, maybe that's too strong of a trend to get rid of in 1 year. 

The GFS ensembles do peak the PNA at 348 and 360 then weaker at 372 and 384. This is usually model saying it's not going to happen in my experience lol

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd like to see how this kind of start compares to other winters that would eventually produce...I mean, does this look more like a nina, or is it just a broken nino where very little seems to be going right right now?

It's not a broken nino at all. Its completely normal for Dec during a nino to feature warmer temps in Dec and not much snow for our area. We've had an active southern stream and coastals. Ask the folks down south if they think this nino is broken. Lol. We missed a storm by inches. Nothing to blame except chaos in the atmosphere. 

If you look at the big picture this nino so far has been spot on for what you would expect. If anything it's been colder than normal so that's a bonus but time will be running out on cold here shortly. 

Sometimes the pac works against us with Nino's. 06 is a good example. Still had some events but it was a warm boring winter featuring a lot of pac air. Stuff like that happens sometimes. Will it happen this year? Ask me in Feb. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's not a broken nino at all. Its completely normal for Dec during a nino to feature warmer temps in Dec and not much snow for our area. We've had an active southern stream and coastals. Ask the folks down south if they think this nino is broken. Lol. We missed a storm by inches. Nothing to blame except chaos in the atmosphere. 

If you look at the big picture this nino so far has been spot on for what you would expect. If anything it's been colder than normal so that's a bonus but time will be running out on cold here shortly. 

Sometimes the pac works against us with Nino's. 06 is a good example. Still had some events but it was a warm boring winter featuring a lot of pac air. Stuff like that happens sometimes. Will it happen this year? Ask me in Feb. 

But if that's already showing up on the models for the last couple weeks...wouldn't that be a bad signal for the winter then? Or could the PAC just get better? (How does this stuff work? Can you tell how long a bad feature could last ahead of time? And 2006-07 was crappy...I only remember one decent snowfall of about 7 inches)

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted

3 days ago we were touting a -EPO  with an Arctic express and worried about suppression in 15 Days.  Now we are worried about a Pac flood in 15 days....and then extrapolating the crap pattern until mid Jan...and some contemplating punting Jan all together. Then factor in the Arctic Melting Index and we will probably all burn alive. lol only in the MA.

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So that I can keep a tally:

Things that can sink a nino

1) raging +AO,  2)PAC....anything else to add to the list? Lol

Lets be honest the PAC means just about everything for us in the winter. Yes a -NAO can help save us occasionally. But a transient block last week screwed us badly. If the PAC sets up and stays bad we are done. But that would be the same conclusion in an enso setup. Personally I dont think we see a +AO in Jan/Feb. Not based on science but because we have seen a predominately +AO for a while now. And the law of averages would say we are due to see it flip.

ao.sprd2.gif

 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So that I can keep a tally:

Things that can sink a nino

1) raging +AO,  2)PAC....anything else to add to the list? Lol

Those can screw up any winter. Lol. 

We rarely get a good pac and -AO together. If I had to pick one over the other I would take a favorable Pac. A hostile Pac can turn a -AO/NAO winter into a dud. 2011-12 is the best recent example of that. 

One thing that always plays against us is our climo. We average 15-25" of snow annually but during Dec through mid March we average around 13" of total precipitation. 80% of our winter precipitation is rain. Nobody likes rain in DJFM but there's no avoiding getting plenty of it every winter. 

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Lets be honest the PAC means just about everything for us in the winter. Yes a -NAO can help save us occasionally. But a transient block last week screwed us badly. If the PAC sets up and stays bad we are done. But that would be the same conclusion in an enso setup. Personally I dont think we see a +AO in Jan/Feb. Not based on science but because we have seen a predominately +AO for a while now. And the law of averages would say we are due to see it flip.

 

 

Murphy's Law says it stays +.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

3 days ago we were touting a -EPO  with an Arctic express and worried about suppression in 15 Days.  Now we are worried about a Pac flood in 15 days....and then extrapolating the crap pattern until mid Jan...and some contemplating punting Jan all together. Then factor in the Arctic Melting Index and we will probably all burn alive. lol only in the MA.

I wasn't worried at all about suppression. The -epo was a relief when it showed up because the crap Pac was already dialed in but unfortunately it's starting to look like the -epo is going to be transient. Which is concerning because now it's possible that the same bad pattern that we're in now might repeat. 

I'm not remotely punting Jan but I'm getting closer every day to punting Dec. We can still pull something off but we're going to need the luck index to spike through the roof. 

 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Those can screw up any winter. Lol. 

We rarely get a good pac and -AO together. If I had to pick one over the other I would take a favorable Pac. A hostile Pac can turn a -AO/NAO winter into a dud. 2011-12 is the best recent example of that. 

One thing that always plays against us is our climo. We average 15-25" of snow annually but during Dec through mid March we average around 13" of total precipitation. 80% of our winter precipitation is rain. Nobody likes rain in DJFM but there's no avoiding getting plenty of it every winter. 

Dang, man...so the PAC...is that something that can predicted before the winter starts? Or is it just some random negative that can just show up? (What drives a bad PAC vs. a good one?)

And 2011-12...if that had been a nino, would it have made a difference? (wait, was it a nino?)

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