December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Sparky said:

Have you forgotten last Christmas?  That had a HECS look on Christmas day scheduled for a few days later but never panned out.

Of course not. In fairness that was a Nina. This year the stj has been legit. Ask richmond. And we have been getting flooding. Just have to time it up. History suggests sooner or later we do. 

[H2O]

When has the GEM been right about anything?

[Maestrobjwa]

Okay...so I don't know how appropriate it is to put this here, because it does kinda cross between global warming talk and our snow talk, but just for fun:

Now don't lie: How many of us would LOVE for this to be true? Lol More snow!! 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

When has the GEM been right about anything?

I was pointing out that is supports the GFS.  One thing that could quickly change our fortunes going into the holiday week is if that NAO Rex block the GFS op has been suggesting is real.  Seeing another piece of guidance, even the GGEM, support that is a good thing.  

[Eskimo Joe]

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Block on gfs pays off with a snow to ice to snow event the week after Xmas. 

Im curious if the gfs is on to something with the block. It's been popping up and it's a little weird for such an anomalous feature to be there in error so often run to run. Doesnt make it right and until it gets support it isn't likely but it's odd. 

The week I'm in Florida.  This will happen.

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Block on gfs pays off with a snow to ice to snow event the week after Xmas. 

Im curious if the gfs is on to something with the block. It's been popping up and it's a little weird for such an anomalous feature to be there in error so often run to run. Doesnt make it right and until it gets support it isn't likely but it's odd. 

That's when the Stratosphere is suppose to begin warming. It will be interesting to see what happens. 

[WesternFringe]

58 minutes ago, H2O said:

When has the GEM been right about anything?

A week ago when it was the first global to shift back to showing accumulating snow in most of Virginia rather than just southern Virginia for the 12/9/18 storm?

[poolz1]

5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Do you have the link to where you got those?  I have the generic temperature correlations but I find the h5 ones more useful.  Thanks

Here you go....

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

[EastCoast NPZ]

36 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

A week ago when it was the first global to show accumulating snow in most of Virginia rather than just southern Virginia for the 12/9/18 storm?

I remember it showing a MECS for us after all the other models settled on NC SWVA hit and cirrus for us.  At least, that is memory....

[Ji]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I was pointing out that is supports the GFS.  One thing that could quickly change our fortunes going into the holiday week is if that NAO Rex block the GFS op has been suggesting is real.  Seeing another piece of guidance, even the GGEM, support that is a good thing.  

when is the last time we had a snowstorm during winter. Not counting fall months like November or March.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

when is the last time we had a snowstorm during winter. Not counting fall months like November or March.  

Dude...Jan 2016. We've been struggling for a couple years, but it hasn't been THAT long!

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude...Jan 2016. We've been struggling for a couple years, but it hasn't been THAT long!

3 years isnt that long?

[MillvilleWx]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 years isnt that long?

We usually wait 4 man. 2019-2020 gonna be rockin! 

[Ji]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

We usually wait 4 man. 2019-2020 gonna be rockin! 

for a snowstorm lol?

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Do you realize how much the planet has degraded in 3 years? I'm surprised it's not like the 1960s now already lol

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Ji said:

for a snowstorm lol?

We've had snow storms since then, but none of which you care for. I enjoy all snow no matter how it comes. Welcome to the Mid Atlantic. Big game hunting each year leads to too much disappointment. You could move to where I am. We average 4.2" of snow a year and a 8+" every decade lol

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

We usually wait 4 man. 2019-2020 gonna be rockin! 

Not true...2-3 years is how long things layoff around here. (only time it was longer was the 70s and maybe late 80s to early 90s) We're due

[poolz1]

Maybe it's weenie logic but it seems to me we have received 3 major EC storms in 30 days.  All 3 have been moisture laden and had strong ULL support passing south of us.  1st one was our early season snow/ice event, 2nd was a major snow/ice maker that went just south and the 3rd is occurring now but does not have an airmass to work with.  It's just a matter of time as the pattern progresses....

Regardless of the pattern it seems the stj is for real and will continue to provide chances with big upside.... 

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 years isnt that long?

Not longer than our average snow drought...and again, odds are, we break it this winter. Just look at our history...I think we're due.

[CAPE]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

when is the last time we had a snowstorm during winter. Not counting fall months like November or March.  

This sub-forum is big. The immediate coast got crushed in early Jan each of the past 2 winters. Both were low end warning events, 5-6" in my yard. There have been advisory events mixed in too during actual winter the last 2 years in many places. It has been pretty lean overall, but nothing unusual.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Not true...2-3 years is how long things layoff around here. (only time it was longer was the 70s and maybe late 80s to early 90s) We're due

That may be true in the last decade, but that was not the case historically when it comes to larger snowfalls. The 80's had larger gaps and the 90's were 3-4 years every monster. By average, it's a little more than 3. We're coming up on the average soon, and historically, El Nino's can be back loaded, so patience was going to have to be had if the Nino took a traditional path with regards to when pattern becomes more favorable. We could see a few shots prior to mid January of course, but I'm still banking on meat and potatoes afterwards. Snow in the Mid Atlantic can become such a boon at times, but we have to remember we can really cash in when things are going well. Just look at the heater we were on for 2-3 years recently. Law of averages is a kick in the "you know what". 

[Bob Chill]

EPS keeps getting worse. Now showing a +EPO and BN heights in AK to go along with the trough west/ridge east. It's a pretty warm type of pattern in the east. Even SNE/NE is probably shut out if that's what happens. These are the types of patterns that take a while to get out of because north america gets flooded with pacific air. 

We really need to hope the gfs is onto something with the neg nao looks it's been showing. Other than that possibility, my optimism is absent. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS keeps getting worse. Now showing a +EPO and BN heights in AK to go along with the trough west/ridge east. It's a pretty warm type of pattern in the east. Even SNE/NE is probably shut out if that's what happens. These are the types of patterns that take a while to get out of because north america gets flooded with pacific air. 

We really need to hope the gfs is onto something with the neg nao looks it's been showing. Other than that possibility, my optimism is absent. 

Dang...so according to the eps...we would have to toss January? (or just a portion of it?)

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang...so according to the eps...we would have to toss January? (or just a portion of it?)

No way to know. I personally don't look that far down the road. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No way to know. I personally don't look that far down the road. 

We aren't going to see any improvement until the mjo fades or gets out of phases 4-7. They are taking a strong run through the warm phases and the pattern is matching the mjo analogs perfectly. I didn't expect the mjo to spend such a long time and so strong a wave into the warm phases. That bothers me. But as long as it gets out by January 10 we should be ok. 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We aren't going to see any improvement until the mjo fades or gets out of phases 4-7. They are taking a strong run through the warm phases and the pattern is matching the mjo analogs perfectly. I didn't expect the mjo to spend such a long time and so strong a wave into the warm phases. That bothers me. But as long as it gets out by January 10 we should be ok. 

I'm not sounding alarms that the winter is in trouble (I know you know this). Just pointing out that guidance is moving towards a shutout pattern to end the month. Not something any of us like seeing but it is what it is. 

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sounding alarms that the winter is in trouble (I know you know this). Just pointing out that guidance is moving towards a shutout pattern to end the month. Not something any of us like seeing but it is what it is. 

I couldn't quite tell whether you were speaking short-term or longer term (longer as in the season)...So it sounds like...a Christmas miracle may be our last shot for awhile...(and as long as the second half of January still doesn't look terrible, I'd be good with that).

But, @psuhoffman when ya talk about this mjo (still don't really understand what that is), and getting "stuck"...what are you saying? Could it stay "stuck" in such a phase the entire winter,, or? (forgive my ignorance onthe subject...I just don't understand how it works)

[HighStakes]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We aren't going to see any improvement until the mjo fades or gets out of phases 4-7. They are taking a strong run through the warm phases and the pattern is matching the mjo analogs perfectly. I didn't expect the mjo to spend such a long time and so strong a wave into the warm phases. That bothers me. But as long as it gets out by January 10 we should be ok. 

 

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm not sounding alarms that the winter is in trouble (I know you know this). Just pointing out that guidance is moving towards a shutout pattern to end the month. Not something any of us like seeing but it is what it is. 

If we we're more fortunate last week and got in on the storm then a 3-4 week wait would be easier to take. I think we're still fine and I fully expected to wait for the second half of winter to get in on the best, however, the one thing I really hoped for was the earlier hit in December. December's in 57, 60, 63, 02 and 09 all had the early hit. Some huge as we know. Those all turned out to be monster winters. Now that's its looking more apparent that we may miss something in december we may be headed more towards a 77/78, 86/87, 06/07, 14/15 type nino winter. 

Everything got going very early so it seems like we've been at this forever when in actuality it's still extremely early in the game. Very little cause for concern yet. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look, it's the white buffalo or something. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS keeps getting worse. Now showing a +EPO and BN heights in AK to go along with the trough west/ridge east. It's a pretty warm type of pattern in the east. Even SNE/NE is probably shut out if that's what happens. These are the types of patterns that take a while to get out of because north america gets flooded with pacific air. 

We really need to hope the gfs is onto something with the neg nao looks it's been showing. Other than that possibility, my optimism is absent. 

This is why I have never been a fan of establishing a pattern and snowpack before Thanksgiving and find it somewhat overrated. In my experience 9 out of 10 times we have a positive look in Oct and Nov it turns out December flips over on itself, erodes any gains that were made with snowpack, then we as a whole are fighting to re-establish things which as Chill noted sometimes takes us several weeks. I'm with many tho and think mid Jan forward will provide our best chances.