December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Feb should be rockin

I agree, but I think the end of January is probably pretty good also.  

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

Feb should be rockin

by the time everything we need comes together, it will be time for the Masters

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

by the time everything we need comes together, it will be time for the Masters

You never answered my question the other day.  For years you were waiting and wanting a modoki nino.  But climo says with a few exceptions most of  those are back loaded winters where most of the snow comes January 20th through February 20th.  So why were you rooting for a modoki nino if you are going to complain that we have to wait for the second half of winter for snow when you know these climo facts as well as me?

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You never answered my question the other day.  For years you were waiting and wanting a modoki nino.  But climo says with a few exceptions most of  those are back loaded winters where most of the snow comes January 20th through February 20th.  So why were you rooting for a modoki nino if you are going to complain that we have to wait for the second half of winter for snow when you know these climo facts as well as me?

Dude, have you not been here for the last 15 years? Ji would complain if we got 2 feet last week.

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

by the time everything we need comes together, it will be time for the Masters

 

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You never answered my question the other day.  For years you were waiting and wanting a modoki nino.  But climo says with a few exceptions most of  those are back loaded winters where most of the snow comes January 20th through February 20th.  So why were you rooting for a modoki nino if you are going to complain that we have to wait for the second half of winter for snow when you know these climo facts as well as me?

Something tells me he won't answer that...lol But what I don't believe, @Ji...is that you complained even in 2009-10?? Seriously? 19+ inches to start that year wasn't enough of a start for ya?

[Yeoman]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I agree, but I think the end of January is probably pretty good also.  

Usually is

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Dude, have you not been here for the last 15 years? Ji would complain if we got 2 feet last week.

I know I am just making a point.  Maybe I am trying to stop some of the ridiculousness before it gets going full force.  There is some kind of disconnect with reality each winter around here.  I live in about the snowiest climo spot in our whole region and I don't expect snow as some here do.  Living in a place with a median snowfall of like 15" that we know has high variability year to year and month to month, and then going crazy every time we go a month in winter without getting dumped seems a little...off to me.  

Look at last year....everyone here knows nina climo... we all knew going in that the odds were stacked against us and greatly favored a bottom 1/3 snowfall winter...but then all winter long there was a litany of "OMG WHERE IS OUR SNOW"  and "WHY ARE WE SO UNLUCKY" posts.  And worse...even though we also know that in a nina our best chance at pulling of one decent storm is in March...as we headed towards the end there was an army of "just give up and stop tracking" posts and then even as we were getting our one good snowfall of the year they then started with the "but its only 5" or "it will all melt tomorrow" crap.  Do they seriously like being miserable?

As for this year...its very disappointing that we missed the storm this week.  We had a shot at an epic start a  la 2002 and 2009 and we just missed.  Oh well...but there is absolutely nothing that indicates things have gone off track for a good winter in the vain of most of the nino analog years where our snow mostly came after January 20th.  Things are going pretty much as was expected, nino years almost always feature a warm period around the holidays... but it feels like people think things are going horribly wrong.  I always expected the majority of our snow to come the second half.  

The irony with the people that want a front loaded winter...is they really don't want that.  Our "front loaded winters" are actually usually awful.  That's because we are in a bad climo spot for early snowfall.  We almost never go on a heater before mid January.  We can luck our way into one big fluke storm early...but almost all of our epic periods where we get multiple snowfalls in a string come in January or February.  And typically years where we get a big snowstorm early we also get another snowy period later.  The years where we say it was "front loaded" are typically crap and we got a little snow in December then the rest of the winter was garbage.  Is that really what they want?

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Something tells me he won't answer that...lol But what I don't believe, @Ji...is that you complained even in 2009-10?? Seriously? 19+ inches to start that year wasn't enough of a start for ya?

yep he was throwing a fit in mid January because "we only had that one storm" and it was a one hit wonder and not the epic winter we expected.  Then again in March he was upset when the late February storm missed and then the early March threat got suppressed.  

[Ji]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You never answered my question the other day.  For years you were waiting and wanting a modoki nino.  But climo says with a few exceptions most of  those are back loaded winters where most of the snow comes January 20th through February 20th.  So why were you rooting for a modoki nino if you are going to complain that we have to wait for the second half of winter for snow when you know these climo facts as well as me?

because all those winters had at least one really good storm in Dec. As did this one...which we missed. Climo says we should have snow on the ground right now

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

because all those winters had at least one really good storm in Dec. As did this one...which we missed. Climo says we should have snow on the ground right now

You are selectively cherry picking the modoki nino years we got an early storm like 2009 and 2002... but what about 2014, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1968, 1965...  the majority actually had very little snow until January.  We got lucky twice with 2002 and 2009.  Facts suggest that was a fluke anomaly even for a modoki nino.  

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

because all those winters had at least one really good storm in Dec. As did this one...which we missed. Climo says we should have snow on the ground right now

With the exception of the white and frozen part, we're going to get a ton of accumulating snow this weekend. 

[WxUSAF]

Been seeing people talk about how similar the sensible weather the last 30 days and looking forward to the next 15, has been similar to 2002. 2002 had a cold November and some snow I believe, then the early December snow, and then a light event on Xmas. We just missed the big storm obviously, but looks like we have a shot around Xmas again like 2002. Let’s hope Jan and feb go like their 2003 versions.

[psuhoffman]

The soi right now is in Nina territory so perhaps it's not shocking we get a Nina pattern look for a while. If the mjo is the culprit expect that to lessen as the wave progresses out of phases 4/5/6. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Been seeing people talk about how similar the sensible weather the last 30 days and looking forward to the next 15, has been similar to 2002. 2002 had a cold November and some snow I believe, then the early December snow, and then a light event on Xmas. We just missed the big storm obviously, but looks like we have a shot around Xmas again like 2002. Let’s hope Jan and feb go like their 2003 versions.

Interestingly that Xmas storm in 02 was rain from range. Even close in it wasn't seen as a real threat. Christmas Eve we had some snow/sleet at the start in Northern VA that cought people off guard and then the flip back to snow Christmas morning was not seen until the last minute. 

This threat this year has a pretty good longwave pattern (even if transient) but a crappy airmass. Perhaps we can back our way into something the same way. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Looks like a storm

 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Interestingly that Xmas storm in 02 was rain from range. Even close in it wasn't seen as a real threat. Christmas Eve we had some snow/sleet at the start in Northern VA that cought people off guard and then the flip back to snow Christmas morning was not seen until the last minute. 

This threat this year has a pretty good longwave pattern (even if transient) but a crappy airmass. Perhaps we can back our way into something the same way. 

If I remember right that was the storm which was a great example of a -NAO hurting us because it ultimately slowed the timing of the phasing shortwaves when without it the system may have been flatter and less phased.  Even up here we lucked out getting a minuscule area of heavy backend snows otherwise we actually finished that month below normal in snow.  I believe that on the 71-90 climo we were using then that 5.5 inches was our now normal snow in December and we got 5 on 12/5/02.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

52 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You are selectively cherry picking the modoki nino years we got an early storm like 2009 and 2002... but what about 2014, 2004, 1994, 1986, 1977, 1968, 1965...  the majority actually had very little snow until January.  We got lucky twice with 2002 and 2009.  Facts suggest that was a fluke anomaly even for a modoki nino.  

2014?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

2014?

2014/15 was a modoki nino. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

2014/15 was a modoki nino. 

Really?  We had 2 consecutive ninos?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Really?  We had 2 consecutive ninos?

Yea it was a weak west based nino. No Atlantic blocking at all. We still did ok with epo based ridging late in winter. 2002 was similar in that regard second half difference was we got Atlantic blocking early and so had a good start. 2014/15 was a wasteland until Feb. 

seems that with the exception of 1995 all modoki ninos had a short period between Jan 20 and March 20th. They are amazingly consistent in that regard. What seems to separate the ok/good ones from the great ones is whether we also get some high latitude blocking help and or a lucky hit early. We missed the early hit chance. But there are signs we will get the blocking help. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Really?  We had 2 consecutive ninos?

14-15 largely resembled the issue we are having this year and with a couple of other years (I believe 12-13 and 13-14) in the last 8 years where we thought we would get an El Niño 8-12 months in advance and either they didn’t develop or they were muddled like 14-15 was.   The PDO had gone negative back in those years and it dipped again for a time last winter and early this year which may or may not be a reason why we have this decoupled mess of an El Niño right now 

[psuhoffman]

Hmmm the GFS has been doing this up top enough times lately to start to wonder if maybe it's on to something.  This would certainly create a legit threat for something to dig the trough under us.  

ETA:  nope all that blocking and it still runs the next system to our north.  All northern stream, as Bob has said that is really hard to get to work in December.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

14-15 largely resembled the issue we are having this year and with a couple of other years (I believe 12-13 and 13-14) in the last 8 years where we thought we would get an El Niño 8-12 months in advance and either they didn’t develop or they were muddled like 14-15 was.   The PDO had gone negative back in those years and it dipped again for a time last winter and early this year which may or may not be a reason why we have this decoupled mess of an El Niño right now 

14-15 was really weak.  The ONI looks to be entering significantly higher territory this year.  Looks to peak around .9-1.2 probably.  And the MEI is finally starting to indicate nino status, finally above .5 so I think once the current MJO tour of crap phases either dies or moves into better phases we should resume a more nino look.  

[EastCoast NPZ]

Thanks PSU and Snowgoose.  I kind of remember that now, though I was remembering 14/15 as a neutral.  Certainly remember that winter being a dumpster fire until Valentines.  That was the year the good period was ushered in with strong cold front and snow squall that dusted my ground and gave Bob Chill a MECS.

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Thanks PSU and Snowgoose.  I kind of remember that now, though I was remembering 14/15 as a neutral.  Certainly remember that winter being a dumpster fire until Valentines.  That was the year the good period was ushered in with strong cold front and snow squall that dusted my ground and gave Bob Chill a MECS.

Was that the year everyone was on suicide watch when the Super Bowl storm ended up going to Boston?

[Ji]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Was that the year everyone was on suicide watch when the Super Bowl storm ended up going to Boston?

yes but it was a suicide warning

[psuhoffman]

If that stj system in the southwest would eject instead of cutting off that is a HECS look right after xmas on the gfs.  

[psuhoffman]

Block on gfs pays off with a snow to ice to snow event the week after Xmas. 

Im curious if the gfs is on to something with the block. It's been popping up and it's a little weird for such an anomalous feature to be there in error so often run to run. Doesnt make it right and until it gets support it isn't likely but it's odd. 

[Sparky]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If that stj system in the southwest would eject instead of cutting off that is a HECS look right after xmas on the gfs.  

Have you forgotten last Christmas?  That had a HECS look on Christmas day scheduled for a few days later but never panned out.

[psuhoffman]

Hmm