December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You do a great job. I always look forward to reading your insights and projections.

Thank you. I really enjoy the mental exercise this hobby is. Plus this is a fun group!   That wave had been showing up but anywhere from cutting to Erie to an out to sea track. At this range there is no way any model can nail a discreet wave in a progressive pattern. Especially given all the volatility going on in the high latitudes. So analyzing details at range right now is useless. 

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

But this run didn't push back. It actually sped up the transition by a week. 

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No reason to worry. Weeklies have done terrible beyond week 3. The second half of Dec looked great during most of the Nov weekly runs. I don't doubt the pattern it's showing but it could happen in 2 weeks or not at all. 

I think what we need to see over the next 2-3 weeks is a legit -ao to start showing up. Part of me is starting to expect it.

I was very happy with the run. It sped up the transition some. By Jan 7th the nao starts to tank. By the 14th we are in a very workable look. Epo nao blocking. Avg heights in the east but in mid January that's ok. Then by the 18th on its bombs away...and only looks better to start February. 

My thoughts on all this...I think it's obvious the mjo is the driver right now. We likely see a cold period around Xmas with phase 5. Seems to fit the progression. Then we probably suffer through a warmer period after if we go through 6/7. But then we get into the better phases. Thomas Downs has suggested that the mjo typically fades in mid winter in a nino. So perhaps that is when the nino climo takes over. This also fits with analogs.

As I said in the banter we might have lost our chance at a top 10 type winter like 1964, 2003, 2010...when the November storm was just a bit too early and threat this week missed.  We came out of a pretty awesome pattern period with little to show for it. 

But this progression is following years like 1966, 1978, 1987 very very closely. All 3 started to establish a blocking cold pattern mid January. They all featured some close misses or interior storms in mid January. Then they all featured an epic run after January 20th into February. 

I know waiting sucks but if we are going to get things to line up right having that happen January 20 into February is PERFECT!  As long as we don't see the progression getting pushed back or degraded I am fine with this timing. Maybe we luck into something around Xmas to hold us over. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

GFS ensembles keep blowing up a High pressure in the PNA region Days 4-5. I wonder if this is the start of forecasted Stratospheric warming, and if in reality the High pressure isn't going to verify like that (El Nino-subsurface warming)

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Look at the long range. I wonder what's happening here. 

 

[Chris78]

GEFS white Christmas??

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

It did that last run, and kicked the can further down the road this run. Not a fan. Still hoping the strat voodoo happens and saves us.

eta- Actually its pretty negligible. Timing of the 'really good' period is about the same as last run. Of course, who knows if it even has the right idea beyond week 3. Based on the EPS waffling recently, not much confidence here.

[jaydreb]

3 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

GEFS white Christmas??

Mostly rainers but that could change.  GFS has consistently had a storm of some sort in this time frame.  

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, jaydreb said:

Mostly rainers but that could change.  GFS has consistently had a storm of some sort in this time frame.  

I think the chances are better to hit Powerball than have snow falling on Christmas Day in the MA.  

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

Well, the clipper in 6-7 days has high bust potential for a colder pattern. Maybe there is a storm around Christmas. 

[frd]

Great info from Dr Amy Butler 

To do justice, you have to go and read the entire post, very educational indeed

See about the QBO phase, and duration of heat fluxes all play a role  

 

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It did that last run, and kicked the can further down the road this run. Not a fan. Still hoping the strat voodoo happens and saves us.

eta- Actually its pretty negligible. Timing of the 'really good' period is about the same as last run. Of course, who knows if it even has the right idea beyond week 3. Based on the EPS waffling recently, not much confidence here.

Why does everyone think this run pushed things back?   Are you comparing it to last week or Monday?  This run progressed remarkably similar (good since the end result is what we want) to the last run only about 4 days faster by my count.

look at the old run on January 18th. This is the first week where heights are responding over the east to the epo and nao blocking and back down to near average. 

now on the new run it's the exact same progression but by January 14th.  

exact same pattern. 4 days faster. 

Now look at January 21...old run 

new run we are further along in the progression. 

and this is where the old run ended 

new run same time...further along

and the new run improves from there the following 4 days. 

I know it's really only a 4 day change but it's pushed the favorable progression closer not further away. Most importantly it follows a nearly identical pattern progression. And since it is the progression we want that's good. 

I know it's a long time to wait. I want snow now too. Maybe we get a fluke in the transient period coming up in 10 days. But the timing fits nino climo. And if we are going to get a good look peak climo Jan 20-feb 20 is the best time to do it.  Obviously the next 3 weeks are kind of a bummer but since we knew what day 15 looked like from the EPS we already knew weeks 1-3 were a toss. And week 4-6 progresses quickly into an epic looking pattern. So why so many are down on this this run?  It's as good as I hoped for given i knew where it started day 15. Not like it could magically morph from that garbage to a good look in 2 days or something. But it only took another week to get right. Maybe I'm missing something. 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So why so many are down on this this run?  It's as good as I hoped for given i knew where it started day 15. Not like it could magically morph from that garbage to a good look in 2 days or something. But it only took another week to get right. Maybe I'm missing something. 

Good eyes. Nice post !

We will get ours.   

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why does everyone think this run pushed things back?   Are you comparing it to last week or Monday?  This run progressed remarkably similar (good since the end result is what we want) to the last run only about 4 days faster by my count.

look at the old run on January 18th. This is the first week where heights are responding over the east to the epo and nao blocking and back down to near average. 

now on the new run it's the exact same progression but by January 14th.  

 

exact same pattern. 4 days faster. 

Now look at January 21...old run 

 

new run we are further along in the progression. 

 

and this is where the old run ended 

 

new run same time...further along

 

and the new run improves from there the following 4 days. 

I know it's really only a 4 day change but it's pushed the favorable progression closer not further away. Most importantly it follows a nearly identical pattern progression. And since it is the progression we want that's good. 

I know it's a long time to wait. I want snow now too. Maybe we get a fluke in the transient period coming up in 10 days. But the timing fits nino climo. And if we are going to get a good look peak climo Jan 20-feb 20 is the best time to do it.  Obviously the next 3 weeks are kind of a bummer but since we knew what day 15 looked like from the EPS we already knew weeks 1-3 were a toss. And week 4-6 progresses quickly into an epic looking pattern. So why so many are down on this this run?  It's as good as I hoped for given i knew where it started day 15. Not like it could magically morph from that garbage to a good look in 2 days or something. But it only took another week to get right. Maybe I'm missing something. 

Yeah I went back and looked at all those panels. Like I said, on second glance, the differences are negligible. This run is essentially the same as the last run. Micro-analyzing the weeklies is fruitless. A day or 2 or 3 sooner or later with the advertised pattern progression is noise. The skill of the weeklies more than a week beyond the end of the 0z run it initialized on is pretty low. Factoring in that the EPS has been a wishy-washy mess with the pattern evolution lately, the uncertainty going forward is even higher.

[clskinsfan]

The 12Z FV3 had that little follow up wave on Christmas day as well. Something to keep an eye on at least. I really love the look of that map Bob posted above. Would like to see the block set up a little bit further north. But that is a nice look way out there in lala land.

[luckyamaha]

Can we just fast forward beyond Christmas? We all know nothing will happen and we need to stop wish casting. Teleconnections are off across the board.

 

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[BristowWx]

5 minutes ago, luckyamaha said:

Can we just fast forward beyond Christmas? We all know nothing will happen and we need to stop wish casting. Teleconnections are off across the board.

 

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We don’t know anything

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

We don’t know anything

Yep...don't sleep on that period just yet...Seems there could be enough there for the weather dice to roll...(feels like the dice have both snowflakes and raindrops on them, lol So, ya just never know!)

[aldie 22]

I'm beginning to think the Winchester crew might get a white Christmas.  

[Wonderdog]

A couple of days past Christmas looks very interesting also!

[nj2va]

12 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It did that last run, and kicked the can further down the road this run. Not a fan. Still hoping the strat voodoo happens and saves us.

eta- Actually its pretty negligible. Timing of the 'really good' period is about the same as last run. Of course, who knows if it even has the right idea beyond week 3. Based on the EPS waffling recently, not much confidence here.

Yeah, I went back and looked closer and I stand corrected.  Maybe it was a perception thing for me perhaps based on the mood around here.   

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yeah, I went back and looked closer and I stand corrected.  Maybe it was a perception thing for me perhaps based on the mood around here.   

I think some people blocked out the last run that pushed things back a week...this actually sped it back up some. Plus I think seeing the first 3 weeks look so awful is rough..but we kind of knew that before the run because we know days1-15 from the EPS.  Given what it was going to look like at day 15 it was a given that it would be crap through at least week 3. But by the end of week 3 the chances are already under way up top and by week 4 things get good. So it was probably the best possible outcome we could have hoped for. But I understand that seeing 3 weeks of garbage to start the run is difficult to get past. 

[CAPE]

So on the 'model war', it sure looks like the GEFS has moved to the EPS idea of major retrograding of the NPAC features. That big a$$ blocking ridge and downstream EPAC trough doesn't look very Nino-ish. Hopefully that look is transient. Some blocking in the NA sure wouldn't hurt.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

So on the 'model war', it sure looks like the GEFS has moved to the EPS idea of major retrograding of the NPAC features. That big a$$ blocking ridge and downstream EPAC trough doesn't look very Nino-ish. Hopefully that look is transient. Some blocking in the NA sure wouldn't hurt.

Very Nina-ish.  I'm somewhat skeptical, but we'll see.  AO looks to go negative either way, so that helps.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nina-ish.  I'm somewhat skeptical, but we'll see.  AO looks to go negative either way, so that helps.  

Yeah we appear to have that moving in our favor for now. Hopefully the SSW talk is not just all hype, and the SPV continues taking a beating going forward.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nina-ish.  I'm somewhat skeptical, but we'll see.  AO looks to go negative either way, so that helps.  

So again, how common is it to see nina-ish features in an el niño?

[WxUSAF]

13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So again, how common is it to see nina-ish features in an el niño?

On short time scales it’s possible, but would be surprising for things to stay like that. And it’s more likely in December that later in the winter.

[psuhoffman]

16 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Was just looking at the latest MJO plots...Euro and GFS wants to stall in phase 4 at the end of their runs....  Hoping we get into 5 and just keep moving along or just head into the COD and reemerge into favorable phases.

Do you have the link to where you got those?  I have the generic temperature correlations but I find the h5 ones more useful.  Thanks

[psuhoffman]

48 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

So on the 'model war', it sure looks like the GEFS has moved to the EPS idea of major retrograding of the NPAC features. That big a$$ blocking ridge and downstream EPAC trough doesn't look very Nino-ish. Hopefully that look is transient. Some blocking in the NA sure wouldn't hurt.

They compromised in a way.  The EPS was dumping the initial trough before xmas into the west.  That is not happening.  They still disagree on how quickly the pattern degrades around xmas with the GEFS holding on to the general idea of a trough in the east and some cold for a while then retrograding towards Dec 28th and the EPS suggesting it starts to break down around the 25th.  But the GEFS hasn't really "moved" as much as it just goes further out in time and now can see past the decent look around xmas to the crap that comes after it.  If you look at the GEFS it still looks good with a trough in the east and -EPO/AO through the 26th.  Then it starts to retrograde after that.  But a few days ago that was as far out as we could see.   I think we thought that it was just the start of a prolonged favorable pattern but unfortunately it was actually just a transient trough in the east.  

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Very Nina-ish.  I'm somewhat skeptical, but we'll see.  AO looks to go negative either way, so that helps.  

The MJO seems to be the driver right now.  We get colder around xmas as we go into phase 5.  Then as we get into 6/7 the pattern goes to crap again and looks almost exactly like a phase 6/7 composite.  Hopefully that means as the mjo moves out of those phases in January we can resume a more normal nino progression.  

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman agree about the MJO apparently driving the bus. I think that models overdo it on MJO influences sometimes, but it’s been a pretty good pattern indicator the last 30-45 days.  If we have to wait a few weeks for the wave to cycle back around, and time it with strat shenanigans, could get very interesting in January. Hopefully we can fluke our way into something around Xmas 

[Yeoman]

Feb should be rockin