psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So worst case....that trough could last for how long? Dagger for the short term, or like a season-long thing? What's going to happen if this year ends up like 2002 where everyone predicted a ton a snow and it ended up one of the least snowy winters ever? I'm worried about you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So worst case....that trough could last for how long? Dagger for the short term, or like a season-long thing? You never know with this stuff. Could be transient or it could set up shop for a long time. Doesn't fit enso climo so my guess is transient and that's assuming it shows up at all (skeptical). Overall the run really sucked though. Not much cold around anywhere in north america by the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's going to happen if this year ends up like 2002 where everyone predicted a ton a snow and it ended up one of the least snowy winters ever? I'm worried about you. I'm okay now (I think, lol I gotta like...not let weather steal my joy. Gonna work on that...close misses still hurt, but it will be better when I can see the big picture--EVENTUALLY, we will shovel again--be it this year or the next) That time, that question wasn't out of frantic anxiety, but more logical curiosity (I mean, I always wonder what else can sink a nino...just keeping my expectations in check) You guys don't seem to have a favorable view of the LR (but I take it it's just for the 2 weeks and not beyond that since ensembles don't go that far into January yet?) Now uh...were you referring to 2002 as in the 2001-02 winter or the 2002-03 winter (if it's the ladder, then lol at the sarcasm!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 51 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, wdavis5784 said: Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.) That was the early call for Thanksgiving...warm...but it was not. I guess we will see soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That was the early call for Thanksgiving...warm...but it was not. I guess we will see soon enough. Yeah I don't buy it either (they made that prediction even a two week range, didn't they? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Xmas looks chilly but after might warm up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Xmas looks chilly but after might warm up again. Good enough. I mean it’s either white or it’s not. Temps below 50 are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. Was just looking at the latest MJO plots...Euro and GFS wants to stall in phase 4 at the end of their runs.... Hoping we get into 5 and just keep moving along or just head into the COD and reemerge into favorable phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina? Interesting: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Quote ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0C (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly (Fig. 3), but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. ...... The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, MountainGeek said: Interesting: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Huh...wonder if that may be driving the eps ugliness?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 It's a happy hour Christmas miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, Cobalt said: It's a happy hour Christmas miracle That would be fun. If only... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, BristowWx said: That would be fun. If only... Here is the invisible “Its Happening” gif. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: That would be fun. If only... Yeah, i'd pay in cold hard cash for even just some mood flakes during Christmas afternoon. To my novice eyes the GFS OP run doesn't look too god awful near hr 240, so hopefully the GEFS run doesn't look too horrible before the Euro Weeklies take us back to the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 hour ago, MountainGeek said: Interesting: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf Hmm.. subtropical jet has been El NIno for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea...gfs starts building higher heights over Greenland around day 6 and never looks back the remainder of the run...nice blocking Saw that. Nice stable closed h5 ridge. That's the one thing that could turn any hostile pac pattern around to serviceable. Maybe the strat will save us for the first time since I joined easternwx in 06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Big storm setup right here... hope it holds for 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Weeklies update: Week 3 = close the blinds Week 4 = flawed but not a shutout Weeks 5-6? Get your shovels tuned up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 26 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It's a happy hour Christmas miracle Fringed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Fringed Northwest trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Weeklies update: Week 3 = close the blinds Week 4 = flawed but not a shutout Weeks 5-6? Get your shovels tuned up. I don't like seeing things getting pushed back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Big storm setup right here... hope it holds for 16 days. Are there any puppies left? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I don't like seeing things getting pushed back. I’m hoping for a Christmas miracle. But nino climo suggests mid January through March would be our window! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...wonder if that may be driving the eps ugliness?... The EPS has been following the mjo around like a puppy for months. If you plot the mjo phase charts next to the EPS like poolz did they are a close match. The mjo is taking a tour of some ugly phases. 3/4 are warm. 5 is actually chilly in a nino and that is about when the Xmas period cold look hits. Then phase 6/7 are warm and right on schedule we look to warm after. The good news is I highly doubt the mjo continues in warm phases all winter so if that is what's driving this period we should come out of it in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Northwest trend? lol I'm just doing my thing. I'm not analyzing a day 11 wave on a gfs op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: I don't like seeing things getting pushed back. No reason to worry. Weeklies have done terrible beyond week 3. The second half of Dec looked great during most of the Nov weekly runs. I don't doubt the pattern it's showing but it could happen in 2 weeks or not at all. I think what we need to see over the next 2-3 weeks is a legit -ao to start showing up. Part of me is starting to expect it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: lol I'm just doing my thing. I'm not analyzing a day 11 wave on a gfs op run. You do a great job. I always look forward to reading your insights and projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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