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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 8:10 PM, Bob Chill said:

This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. 

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That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 8:29 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So worst case....that trough could last for how long? Dagger for the short term, or like a season-long thing?

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What's going to happen if this year ends up like 2002 where everyone predicted a ton a snow and it ended up one of the least snowy winters ever?  I'm worried about you. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 12/13/2018 at 8:29 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

So worst case....that trough could last for how long? Dagger for the short term, or like a season-long thing?

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You never know with this stuff. Could be transient or it could set up shop for a long time. Doesn't fit enso climo so my guess is transient and that's assuming it shows up at all (skeptical). Overall the run really sucked though. Not much cold around anywhere in north america by the end of the run. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 12/13/2018 at 8:32 PM, psuhoffman said:

That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. 

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No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. 

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 8:33 PM, psuhoffman said:

What's going to happen if this year ends up like 2002 where everyone predicted a ton a snow and it ended up one of the least snowy winters ever?  I'm worried about you. 

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I'm okay now (I think, lol I gotta like...not let weather steal my joy. Gonna work on that...close misses still hurt, but it will be better when I can see the big picture--EVENTUALLY, we will shovel again--be it this year or the next) 

That time, that question wasn't out of frantic anxiety, but more logical curiosity (I mean, I always wonder what else can sink a nino...just keeping my expectations in check) You guys don't seem to have a favorable view of the LR (but I take it it's just for the 2 weeks and not beyond that since ensembles don't go that far into January yet?)

Now uh...were you referring to 2002 as in the 2001-02 winter or the 2002-03 winter (if it's the ladder, then lol at the sarcasm!)

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Wxdavis5784

Wxdavis5784

Posted
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  On 12/13/2018 at 8:39 PM, Bob Chill said:

No way to know anything until we get through the next 10 days or so. Didn't like how warm north america was on the EPS. Trop PV pushed all the way over into Siberia leaving north america mild in general everywhere. 

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Nothing like 70 degrees and shorts on Xmas... Seems to becoming a more common theme the last few years.... (Last year aside.)

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poolz1

poolz1

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 8:32 PM, psuhoffman said:

That was UGLY. Ugh. Hopefully it just injected some bad mojo or something. Definitely not the direction I wanted to see...I wonder if it's not simply following an mjo progression. If we are in phases 6/7 by then that would support an ugly look in a nino. Hopefully we get into phase 8 after that or the wave does allowing typical nino pattern to develop. 

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Was just looking at the latest MJO plots...Euro and GFS wants to stall in phase 4 at the end of their runs....  Hoping we get into 5 and just keep moving along or just head into the COD and reemerge into favorable phases.

StqMXYi.png?1

rjFKEAc.gif?1

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MountainGeek

MountainGeek

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 8:06 PM, Bob Chill said:

Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina?

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Interesting:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

  Quote

 

ENSO-neutral continued during November, despite the continuation of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The latest weekly SST indices for all four Niño regions were near +1.0C (Fig. 2). Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) weakened slightly (Fig. 3), but above-average temperatures persist at depth across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 4). However, the atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures.

......

The official forecast favors the formation of a weak El Niño, with the expectation that the atmospheric circulation will eventually couple to the anomalous equatorial Pacific warmth. In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and spring (~60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

 

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Cobalt

Cobalt

Posted
Posted
  On 12/13/2018 at 10:49 PM, BristowWx said:

That would be fun.  If only...

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Yeah, i'd pay in cold hard cash for even just some mood flakes during Christmas afternoon. To my novice eyes the GFS OP run doesn't look too god awful near hr 240, so hopefully the GEFS run doesn't look too horrible before the Euro Weeklies take us back to the ledge. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 12/13/2018 at 10:57 PM, losetoa6 said:

Yea...gfs starts building higher heights over Greenland around day 6 and never looks back the remainder of the run...nice blocking 

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Saw that. Nice stable closed h5 ridge. That's the one thing that could turn any hostile pac pattern around to serviceable. Maybe the strat will save us for the first time since I joined easternwx in 06.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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  On 12/13/2018 at 10:27 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

Huh...wonder if that may be driving the eps ugliness?...

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The EPS has been following the mjo around like a puppy for months. If you plot the mjo phase charts next to the EPS like poolz did they are a close match.  The mjo is taking a tour of some ugly phases. 3/4 are warm. 5 is actually chilly in a nino and that is about when the Xmas period cold look hits. Then phase 6/7 are warm and right on schedule we look to warm after. The good news is I highly doubt the mjo continues in warm phases all winter so if that is what's driving this period we should come out of it in January.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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  On 12/13/2018 at 11:17 PM, nj2va said:

I don't like seeing things getting pushed back.

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No reason to worry. Weeklies have done terrible beyond week 3. The second half of Dec looked great during most of the Nov weekly runs. I don't doubt the pattern it's showing but it could happen in 2 weeks or not at all. 

I think what we need to see over the next 2-3 weeks is a legit -ao to start showing up. Part of me is starting to expect it.

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