clskinsfan Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still squashed. But a stronger vort this time and a much better precip field as well. It is a miss. But just barely. And SW VA gets blasted on this run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Despite a better 500, the low is over Jacksonville. I don’t see how that bodes that well for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 the whole storm looks slightly further west compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I don’t mean harm when I say this, but some of y’all need to brush up on model interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 For those that care... 12z CMC is a crush job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:01 PM, stormtracker said: It does. Expand You're right. Not sure it will matter that much. But yes, I was incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:02 PM, clskinsfan said: Still squashed. But a stronger vort this time and a much better precip field as well. It is a miss. But just barely. And SW VA gets blasted on this run as well. Expand yeah, i like this run. Reasonable improvement so far. Little better ridging out in front before it hits "the wall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Shunted barely south of D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Switching over to the CMC, it appears to be a nice hit at 108! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not a hit but a step forward from 6z with the northern extent of the precip shield. Half a step forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:04 PM, yoda said: For those that care... 12z CMC is a crush job Expand Yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 in other news...the CMS is a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just keep it close baby. I don't want to be in the bullseye until the final 72 hours. Just keep it right on our doorstep for now and I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yeah, CMC is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 3:54 PM, winterymix said: True, that. Still, the menu is very easy to use at http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gmanikin/fv3gfs/fv3images.html Expand LOL thanks On 12/5/2018 at 4:04 PM, stormtracker said: I don’t mean harm when I say this, but some of y’all need to brush up on model interpretation. Expand stooooorrrrrmmmmmmm moooooodddddeeeeeeeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, Ji said: in other news...the CMS is a HECS Expand Hopefully thats a better model then the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, stormtracker said: Yeah, CMC is crazy Expand Came back north a good amount after its dip south at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Call me crazy but I just have a hard time believing northern SC will see 2' of snow. I still think this shifts north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Just keep it close baby. I don't want to be in the bullseye until the final 72 hours. Just keep it right on our doorstep for now and I'm happy. Expand Absolutely. i know I'm likely fringed, but as we live so close, i root for the same evolution as you guys and what happens, happens. Congrats to your backyard. Mine may still get white. All good and a win nontheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, Ji said: in other news...the CMS is a HECS Expand I didn't know that Medicare had a weather computer model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The difference in the Canadian is mind boggling. Until the GFS initially has our low gaining latitude over the states instead of off the east coast it’ll be a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Precip did shift north ever so slightly overall... maybe 25-30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Just keep it close baby. I don't want to be in the bullseye until the final 72 hours. Just keep it right on our doorstep for now and I'm happy. Expand i know this is a weenie handbook thing but historically, the GFS has always been the last to catch on to big coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, mappy said: LOL thanks stooooorrrrrmmmmmmm moooooodddddeeeeeeeeeee Expand lol at storm mode this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:08 PM, psuhoffman said: Just keep it close baby. I don't want to be in the bullseye until the final 72 hours. Just keep it right on our doorstep for now and I'm happy. Expand Yes. GFS is still not in range for this kind of storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 CMC is pretty much what I discussed this morning in my long a** post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:12 PM, BaltimoreWxGuy said: The difference in the Canadian is mind boggling. Until the GFS initially has our low gaining latitude over the states instead of off the east coast it’ll be a miss Expand the GGEm is close to how @showmethesnowdescribed what he thought would happen...a transfer from TN or something off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:14 PM, showmethesnow said: CMC is pretty much what I discussed this morning in my long a** post. Expand CMC looks like a similar track to a lot of those left-leaning EPS tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 4:13 PM, PivotPoint said: lol at storm mode this far out Expand Why... it would stop the posting of "it is getting squashed"... to only have the same person 3 post later saying... "well maybe not"... or someone saying "this is going to be bad" but if they actually know what they are looking at, would know better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Solution is far from locked in at this range. There is certainly room for this to come north and even still to SNE. Narrowing of track and better consensus by Thursday when all the players are on the field and in better range for NWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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