Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:34 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Asssuming @high risk is right (which he almost certainly is) here is the FV3. Expand At least it gives me a dusting. Still the best for my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Looks like it was about to come up and some random sw diving down suppressed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:35 AM, GATECH said: I figure we have another 84 hours until we need to start talking about January 25 2000. Expand Oh the radar hallucinations on Sunday will be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:42 AM, JakkelWx said: Was the random SW an error and isn't there on the 12z FV3? Curious. It could be suspect but i'm hearing talks about a "wrinkle" in the equation and a northern piece that started showing up on the models very recently? Expand A wrinkle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:43 AM, BristowWx said: A wrinkle? Expand I think I'm responsible for using that term...lol When I said wrinkle, I was referring to the possible capture and phase solution that the EURO and 18z GFS seemed to try to do (but on those particular runs, it happened too late) That was something that wasn't there before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 out on TTT, FWIW. I'm assuming the thing over Iowa is the new piece of the puzzle that's kicking the storm out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:30 AM, high risk said: The mageval.ncep.noaa.gov is the site for parallel versions of models. If you click on GFS, you get the parallel GFS, which is the FV3GFS. If you don't believe me, check out the 12z 'GFS' on mageval and compare it to the TT FV3GFS plots. Expand Appreciate the response. I didn’t realize I needed to open the parallel version. Learn something new everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:01 AM, NorthArlington101 said: FV3 out on TTT, FWIW. I'm assuming the thing over Iowa is the new piece of the puzzle that's kicking the storm out? Expand Just don’t click the Prev Run arrow. Don’t do it. It will show you what this could be and what currently is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
digital snow Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm holding out hope but the trees have been in the direction of bbq and slaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Sure does look like Rowanoche is ground zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:05 AM, ers-wxman1 said: Expand Oops...time to start work on the FV4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:19 AM, MDstorm said: Oops...time to start work on the FV4? Expand its still a good model if you live cville points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 1:35 AM, GATECH said: I figure we have another 84 hours until we need to start talking about January 25 2000. Expand Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:22 AM, Snowchaser said: its still a good model if you live cville points south Expand Admit it...you can't spell where you live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:24 AM, leesburg 04 said: Admit it...you can spell where you live Expand what? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I keep reminding myself that energy isn’t even on the west coast yet. Anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:23 AM, snowmagnet said: Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? Expand No, you are thinking Boxing Day 2010. January 25 2000 was kinda like the situation we have now, was supposed to stay south, but decided to head north. Forecast went from partly cloudy to winter storm warnings and 12 inches of snow in about 6 hours. Ultimate weenie Hail Mary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:23 AM, snowmagnet said: Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? Expand No. The storm went negative tilt in SC and was forecast to go out to sea. The 500mb low phased and caught it and had it ride up the coast. Forecasts went from sunny to winter storm warnings slowly northward from SC to MD. 10 to 20 inches fell.. All a surprise because models kept missing the phase and capture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:23 AM, snowmagnet said: Is that the storm that we were supposed to get until it changed coarse at the last minute and went straight to NY? Expand No. https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:25 AM, snowmagnet said: I keep reminding myself that energy isn’t even on the west coast yet. Anything can happen. Expand That’s chapter 2 in the weenie handbook right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 around 11 tonight DT will be giving an update on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:25 AM, snowmagnet said: I keep reminding myself that energy isn’t even on the west coast yet. Anything can happen. Expand Right. Although the models seem to be focusing on central VA/NW NC, the energy won't arrive on the west coast until late thursday/early friday. Once that happens with observations can get fed into the model and there will (hopefully) be much more agreement/consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 There are so many players in this game right now any one of them could be modeled just slightly wrong and it would have a huge effect on the whole game. Definitely worth extrapolating the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:31 AM, jackb979 said: Right. Although the models seem to be focusing on central VA/NW NC, the energy won't arrive on the west coast until late thursday/early friday. Once that happens with observations can get fed into the model and there will (hopefully) be much more agreement/consistency Expand well said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:30 AM, Snowchaser said: around 11 tonight DT will be giving an update on this storm Expand I've already seen the Euro, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:30 AM, Snowchaser said: around 11 tonight DT will be giving an update on this storm Expand This is one of those times where I am not confused about this situation. The storm is a tennis ball and the confluence is a brick wall. The storm needs to be a bowling ball and the brick wall needs to be a cardboard wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Look at how fast this changes to favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 2:35 AM, BristowWx said: This is one of those times where I am not confused about this situation. The storm is a tennis ball and the confluence is a brick wall. The storm needs to be a bowling ball and the brick wall needs to be a cardboard wall. Expand Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Here were the 18z EPS fwiw: Credit to Tony/Metfan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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