kurtstack Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Im going to go with the models fringing hoffman day 6 rule of thumb. We are in a good spot with todays models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:43 PM, Scraff said: No matter what happens this weekend, that look leads me to believe some seriously fun times are right around the corner. Expand Any snow next weekend would be bonus considering the late start to this Nino especially. But seems January and beyond could be quite busy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:43 PM, Scraff said: No matter what happens this weekend, that look leads me to believe some seriously fun times are right around the corner. Expand I am so happy I could cry. Plus I am suffering form data overload , too much great weather info to digest! The progression of the weeklies fits @Isotherm seasonal forecast. So far, so good. Excellent times ahead !! I hope the board doesn't crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:46 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Ninos deliver late usually, and this one was also a late starter. Mid Jan to early March might legit rock. Expand Lol, I swear I didn’t copy your post. Such similar thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:24 PM, Bob Chill said: Fv3 was pretty similar at h5 as the old defunct crusty brother gfs. Much better mids though. We're going to be rooting for the north trend to stop soon. Expand Yep. I definitely like the temps on the FV3 better than anything else at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:28 PM, Scud said: More better Expand That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 apologies if this has already been posted earlier in the thread (I couldn't find any references), but for those who follow Wes Junker in the Capital Weather Gang section of the Washington Post, here is his take on the potential weekend storm, written earlier this afternoon: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/03/washington-region-may-sit-edge-winter-storm-this-weekend/?utm_term=.1fd9a5cdf404 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Love where we are sitting after the 18z run. I definitely don't want this any farther north right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:51 PM, clskinsfan said: That cant be right. Stephens City gets more than Winchester on that map. Everyone knows that is impossible. Expand I mean could you ask for a better snow map 6 days out? It would take a serious fail for most of this sub forum to not get snow next weekend. How often are we in this position. CMC is chuckling right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 14-20 inched 60 miles sw while DC gets one is a preposterous offering Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 @Eskimo Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:42 PM, losetoa6 said: This gefs vort panel looks nice . This is good enough for me for almost 6 days out . Expand Still need higher heights over NY imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:46 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Ninos deliver late usually, and this one was also a late starter. Mid Jan to early March might legit rock. Expand I'm surprised people keep saying that. Early February 2010 is the heart of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:56 PM, poolz1 said: @Eskimo Joe Expand First sign of a high heights near NY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Sorry for sounding amateur but what does a high near NY mean for MA snowstorms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:28 PM, Scud said: More better Expand Hmm when have I seen that look before... oh like 5 days before almost every stj driven hecs we've had. I don't have a crystal ball and it could easily get squashed if the northern stream invents another vort to dive down at the wrong time...but this is exactly where I want an stj system at day 5 with only marginal blocking. I've heard there is none but that's not true, the combo of a displaced PV with some ridging in Greenland and that 50/50 acts as a weak bootleg block in this case. It won't show up on an nao index but it works to impact the longwave pattern the way we want. But it's relaxing in front as we want. We may well end up rooting for the north trend to stop before it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:03 AM, JakkelWx said: Sorry for sounding amateur but what does a high near NY mean for MA snowstorms? Expand Favorable location to maintain CAD and deeper thickness of the cold..usually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is the elusive mini pattern. Mini +pna, mini aleutian trough, mini -nao, mini 50/50, and mini southern wave in the deep southwest. Result? Mini HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The fv3 gfs has a lot of energy undercutting the western ridge. The gfs doesn't have this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:07 AM, BristowWx said: Favorable location to maintain CAD and deeper thickness of the cold..usually Expand Also helps to expand the precip shield on the western edge (I think). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:08 AM, Bob Chill said: This is the elusive mini pattern. Mini +pna, mini aleutian trough, mini -nao, mini 50/50, and mini southern wave in the deep southwest. Result? Mini HECS Expand This looks great but we potentially have a HECS staring us right in the face six days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Checked 18z CMC: no changes yet for precip shield the same at 90 hrs 12z. Reconciliation will occur next 48-72hrs. Exspect volatility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:46 PM, Bob Chill said: Weeklies are the perfect retro/rollover pattern that we discussed when the AK trough first showed up. Huge changes from just a few days ago though so caution signs but man...this run is as epic as it gets. We can spare half that pattern and still snow. Expand I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. I don't know what more to wait for. The mjo keeps cycling cold then dying without any grand tours of the warm phases. The enso looks pretty close to the composite of all our big years. The PV is a weak pathetic pos this year that's getting beat around like a piñata. Everytime we get a trough in the east its storms galore. We're running cold and every attempt to flip quickly reverts. The nao looks ok and tends to only trend better later in nino years. Im all in. If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time but I've seen enough. I expect this to be a big year and will be disappointed (and very wrong) if it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:10 AM, nj2va said: Also helps to expand the precip shield on the western edge (I think). Expand Did not know that. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:13 AM, BristowWx said: Did not know that. Thanks Expand same! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Onset is late Christmas day into boxing day. 3+ weeks should be enough lead time to adjust timing to Christmas eve and also move the jackpot overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 11:53 PM, batmanbrad said: apologies if this has already been posted earlier in the thread (I couldn't find any references), but for those who follow Wes Junker in the Capital Weather Gang section of the Washington Post, here is his take on the potential weekend storm, written earlier this afternoon: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/03/washington-region-may-sit-edge-winter-storm-this-weekend/?utm_term=.1fd9a5cdf404Cgw are worthless now probably are at 2/10 for the storm on their scale. Up from 1.5/10Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:20 AM, luckyamaha said: Cgw are worthless now probably are at 2/10 for the storm on their scale. Up from 1.5/10 Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Expand Would you go higher than 2/10 6 days out? 6 hours ago we were on the train to Supressionville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:13 AM, psuhoffman said: I don't believe them because the weeklies show what they show. I believe them because they show what we logically expected the pattern to evolve into given nino climo and all the signs so far this season. I definitely don't regret keeping my bullish snowfall forecast unedited. Expand I agree with everything you wrote. Weeklies get a serious -ao going within 4 weeks and it only gets stronger. Our fate is predicated there. Right now the ao is flipping positive which is fine. But if we're going to move into deep winter by the holiday week then my eyes are focused right there. I want to see the ao flipping negative asap on ens guidance. If it happens before Christmas then only bad luck will be to blame if we don't do well. Heck, DC could be halfway to climo next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 12/4/2018 at 12:24 AM, BristowWx said: Would you go higher than 2/10 6 days out? 6 hours ago we were on the train to SupressionvilleI would back it down to 1/10Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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