psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro is close enough for me at 144. I'm happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:31 PM, Scud said: Expand cool. can you tell me what it means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:32 PM, psuhoffman said: Euro is close enough for me at 144. I'm happy Expand yea, better than last nights run and an eternity to go basically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 150 has the Surface low in S Georgia compared to off the coast at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 168 is sooooo close...its not like the storm is starting tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:31 PM, WxUSAF said: Whoa...euro phases some northern energy at 144. Closed 500 low near western TN/northern AL. Nice CAD signature. Expand that upper level support hits KY pretty good with heavy precip (rain). That wasn't there at all with the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 HR168, 997 off Hatteras. EDIT: 850 temps are pretty bleh though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 168 996mb SLP right by HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:35 PM, Bob Chill said: that upper level support hits KY pretty good with heavy precip (rain). That wasn't there at all with the 0z run. Expand 168 hour has a 997 parked over Hatteras. Pretty classic look... Thermals suck though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:34 PM, Scud said: Means it going to snow.... Expand you sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:36 PM, WxUSAF said: 168 hour has a 997 parked over Hatteras. Pretty classic look... Thermals suck though. Expand yep, the delay doesn't help up without a fresh cold feed. IF it does snow here with that setup it's going to be marginal and dynamically driven. Not my favorite in early Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 too precip shield overall is very narrow though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:36 PM, WxUSAF said: 168 hour has a 997 parked over Hatteras. Pretty classic look... Thermals suck though. Expand Colder in the panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:36 PM, mappy said: you sure about that? Expand Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:37 PM, Bob Chill said: yep, the delay doesn't help up without a fresh cold feed. IF it does snow here with that setup it's going to be marginal and dynamically driven. Not my favorite in early Dec. Expand SO we have the GFS with too much of a good thing...and now the Euro with bleh temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Meh, really not a good run with the outcome. It looked better leading in but a lot of problems are showing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:39 PM, stormtracker said: SO we have the GFS with too much of a good thing...and now the Euro with bleh temps. Expand there is going to be probably one more dramatic storm altering change in the models in the next 1-2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 UKMET precipitation at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 SW VA still gets hit but the shift to a warmer solution made the run worse than last night in general. Can't have this crawling along like that as the mid levels get tortured without a cold feed. Not a fan of this run at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Meh, really not a good run with the outcome. It looked better leading in but a lot of problems are showing up... Expand Up next March 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 UKMET and Euro pretty similar in their precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:39 PM, Bob Chill said: Meh, really not a good run with the outcome. It looked better leading in but a lot of problems are showing up... Expand looks like the low stalls lol but we dont get precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Models having a tough time with all the moving pieces. If you compare each model with how they are handling the N stream each has their own idea. So many details to iron out. The only people who I think should feel comfortable are the mountains and high elevations of NC, S VA etc because they will certainly get overrunning precip...from there their are so many possibilities we probably wont have a better handle until wed 00z runs, then the rest of the runs to iron out the details, even then could be too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:42 PM, Ji said: looks like the low stalls lol but we dont get precip Expand That's ok. I don't need anymore rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 So the retreating high is the problem after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:39 PM, Scud said: Yes Expand for VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:44 PM, H2O said: So the retreating high is the problem after all. Expand I didn't like that part a few days ago. As the storm starts turning north there isn't a cold feed so it's all antecedent stale air with strong easterly fetch in the mids. CMC still has cold it but well... yea... it's the cmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 At 168hrs, euro low position is very similar to the FV3, but with a much better airmass on the FV3. I like the 500 evolution, so I'll take that for now. But still issues to work on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:44 PM, H2O said: So the retreating high is the problem after all. Expand I've learned that's always true for Mid Atlantic winter storm threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Retreating high and first third of December seems like a concerning combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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