yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:29 PM, DCTeacherman said: CMC is a shellacking, we straddle the freezing line but 850s are good to go. I expect to see some gaudy numbers again on the clown map when its out. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:29 PM, Ji said: the FV3 is probably a pig with lipstick on it. The Americans should of bought the old Euro model Expand Well, we thought we'd have a year with no valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:29 PM, mappy said: if we are going to troll people, and be off-topic, at least make sure the English is correct. Expand Its hard to type when you are laughing, my apologies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:29 PM, leesburg 04 said: Canada should be able to handle northern streams better...it is closer to where they are afterall Expand thats the best point ever. If the CMC cant handle northern stream from where this crap comes from...whats the use of it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:34 PM, Scud said: Its hard to type when you are laughing, my apologies.... Expand its okay. just type less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:30 PM, psuhoffman said: Where do you live again? Just wondering Expand I'm not biased lol Cville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:31 PM, yoda said: Expand We take... Eta: After seeing the CMC verification scores...it’s more like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 No need to over analyze the CMC precip and surface. This panel says all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We might be in a bad place. We are discussing the CMC. Hold me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:36 PM, stormtracker said: We might be in a bad place. We are discussing the CMC. Hold me. Expand yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:36 PM, stormtracker said: We might be in a bad place. We are discussing the CMC. Hold me. Expand too early for the teardrop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, mappy said: yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Expand Did you have to post that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:38 PM, yoda said: Did you have to post that? Expand yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, mappy said: yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Expand it will bounce back. Even the redskins slump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Consistency is a good thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 the WW3 is supressed. Need wave action to be much higher near OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, mappy said: yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Expand It's due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:33 PM, stormtracker said: Well, we thought we'd have a year with no valley Expand yep. When you start off on the top of Mount Everest..you only have way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:38 PM, Interstate said: too early for the teardrop? Expand It is. If we get to Feb with nothing, then it comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:43 PM, North Balti Zen said: It's due! Expand has the CMC ever lead the models with an event and ended up correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:45 PM, mappy said: has the CMC ever lead the models with an event and ended up correct? Expand No, but it is the lead model of hopes and dreams. Perfect verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:46 PM, stormtracker said: No, but it is the lead model of hopes and dreams. Perfect verification scores. Expand as long as everyone is on the same page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:45 PM, mappy said: has the CMC ever lead the models with an event and ended up correct? Expand JB2 would tell you yes. LOLz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:45 PM, mappy said: has the CMC ever lead the models with an event and ended up correct? Expand That's the "it's due" part! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:45 PM, mappy said: has the CMC ever lead the models with an event and ended up correct? Expand it nailed PD2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:49 PM, North Balti Zen said: That's the "it's due" part! Expand LOL touche. On 12/3/2018 at 4:50 PM, Ji said: it nailed PD2003 Expand i didn't get to experience that storm, so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 This, from HM, is on point with what we have been discussing: Really easy to see the issue with the northern stream feature on his side-by-side... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:27 PM, Interstate said: But we have no verification scores on the FV3 either... so it is a crap shoot. Expand We do have sccores (purple, below). More here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/. It has been consistently doing better than the GFS, but that's no reason to ignore the GFS; I'd just give it less weight. On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, mappy said: yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Expand Thanks for posting those. There are also "PNA" (North America) scores, which might be better for our area than the NHX (Northern hemisphere) scores. Unfortunately the GGEM has been lagging in those scores as well (at least at H5), but not by as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 is a bit weaker with the NS @96....heights bumped up a little as a result. Confluence a little weaker overall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:37 PM, mappy said: yes. especially since its verification scores are dead last at day 6 (500mb level) Expand That's an interesting graph. Note that the lowest scores in the past month for all of them came from our last winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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