yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I think the 00z UKIE is okay at 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:28 AM, griteater said: UKMet at 144 has the low in Baton Rouge with the high on the Mid Atlantic coast. The UKMet is opposite of the GFS - it has the sfc high out ahead of our storm (a bit too far out ahead)...but UKMet looks like it's going to go Miller B if I had to guess....looks like it would be a big phasing Miller B Expand That's what griteater said about it in the SE forum... I guess that would mean big rainstorm for most? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 00z GFS and CMC ditched are much weaker with the Hudsons Bay vortex. That's an improvement over 12z and a better match for a snowstorm pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:36 AM, Bob Chill said: CMC is slower with the ns shortwave. This panel really shows it. The kicker on the gfs is still up in Canada on the cmc That timing difference is only like 12 hours and this is 5+ days out in time. We're close to being in the game. Expand The kicker is slower on the 0z gfs as compared to the 18z so in that regard it improved. If it’s not going to race out of the way, we would want it to hang back more and it trended that way. Am I reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Ukie looks great to me, cmc is a hit, euro fun in an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:56 AM, Negnao said: The kicker is slower on the 0z gfs as compared to the 18z so in that regard it improved. If it’s not going to race out of the way, we would want it to hang back more and it trended that way. Am I reading that right? Expand Yep, hanging back helps. With it pressing down out in front of the southern shortwave it compresses and flattens heights which leads to a suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 0z gefs is pretty bad for our area. Strong support for southern slider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 00z FV3 GFS nice hit for the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 FV3 is a good hit for the area. Night and day from the regular GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Nice hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Lol- and the FV3 is a big hit. The northern shortwave is slow enough to phase. Didn't expect that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Should we even be looking at the old GFS? Are they still tweaking the FV3 or is it good to go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:21 AM, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs is pretty bad for our area. Strong support for southern slider. Expand It also pops a secondary low after the first is gone in the same spot 18hrs later. How believable is that in comparison to last nights 0z run on GEFS? Seems like we need to hold off for another 36hrs or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:27 AM, peribonca said: Should we even be looking at the old GFS? Are they still tweaking the FV3 or is it good to go? Expand We'll know in about 6 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I’m arbitrarily deciding the fv3 gfs is the superior GFS for no good reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Why anybody gives much value to the GFS (at least the old version) is beyond me. It is not very good with east coast winter storms beyond 4 days. Frequently overdoes the northern stream strength/progressiveness which usually screws up the end result. Of course, the outcome of next weekend is still up in the air, but is not likely to be the GFS depicted result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:53 AM, MDstorm said: Why anybody gives much value to the GFS (at least the old version) is beyond me. It is not very good with east coast winter storms beyond 4 days. Frequently overdoes the northern stream strength/progressiveness which usually screws up the end result. Of course, the outcome of next weekend is still up in the air, but is not likely to be the GFS depicted result. Expand Its only good for phone apps. I think the FV3 looks to be a clear winner and has been steady the last few runs to my untrained eye starting back on 11/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS op and GEFS clear outliers ftm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 4:26 AM, luckyamaha said: That they have especially when they come with the low right off the FL coast straight into the Atlantic with no SER/WAR. Gate is wide open for it to run and become fish storm Expand Depends on which model u r looking at. Fv3, cmc, and icon all have just enough of a SER reflection at the right window to help nudge the surface low farther N than say the gfs which is flat. Been watching this feature for a couple days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 5:08 AM, Wentzadelphia said: Ukie looks great to me, cmc is a hit, euro fun in an hour? Expand Now uh...is there actually credence to the idea of a good ukie run preceding a good euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 lol, low in Mexico Sat 0z on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:22 AM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: lol, low in Mexico Sat 0z on euro Expand Don't tell me it's gonna squash it even more...mercy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Euro and Ukie mirroring each other thru 144. HP over PA and slp near NOLA. Looks like classic Miller B setup incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 HP to the N not as strong... Precip shield has more of a NE trajectory instead of due east...should make it further N this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 On 12/3/2018 at 6:34 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Don't tell me it's gonna squash it even more...mercy Expand I'm saying no squash as a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 h5 is flat early, but the flow seems to be leaving as the low approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 168 SLP by ILM... do I see a late phase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 SC/NC coast @168 (idk details) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Warmish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Help us subs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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