December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[pasnownut]

  On 12/1/2018 at 11:45 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah pretty interesting look on the GFS with that NS energy rotating down. Have to watch and see how this evolves on future runs. 

 

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would seemingly be a quick hitter as verbatim its just a piece left behind from main show, and while possible, would have to pop rather quickly to make much happen.  I'm sure the SE crew would be glad to see it all the same.

[Wonderdog]

  On 12/1/2018 at 5:45 AM, psuhoffman said:

Still too far out to be confident but things look about as good as they can at this range for this early. It would be nice to score a warning event right off the bat to put everyone in a good mood and hold off the doom and gloom that will set in if we roll into January still without a significant event. 

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Great post!

[packfan98]

The hits just keep on coming.  Here's the 6z FV3 GFS:

[showmethesnow]

  On 12/1/2018 at 11:59 AM, pasnownut said:

would seemingly be a quick hitter as verbatim its just a piece left behind from main show, and while possible, would have to pop rather quickly to make much happen.  I'm sure the SE crew would be glad to see it all the same.

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Not necessarily. With the 500's rotating down with a closed low you have the possibility of that surface low stalling, if not retrograding, waiting for the upper levels to catch up to it. Really wouldn't take too much tweaking at this point to have that become another major hit for portions of our region.

[stormtracker]

snowlover101 wants you all to know that the models show snow for Virginia.  

[showmethesnow]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:05 PM, packfan98 said:

The hits just keep on coming.  Here's the 6z FV3 GFS:

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That is more inline with the 06Z GEFS which was south of the op.

[Wonderdog]

  On 12/1/2018 at 11:45 AM, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah pretty interesting look on the GFS with that NS energy rotating down. Have to watch and see how this evolves on future runs. 

 

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Would having that NS energy a little faster help to bring the primary further north?

[CAPE]

  On 12/1/2018 at 11:54 AM, pasnownut said:

and looking at Ens guidance at 500 says the warmup is a rather muted/mundane one.

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Yeah I looked at the 0z EPS this morning. Looks like a few mild days than back to seasonable. Still some work to be done to get that AK vortex to calm down and retro into better position. Seems to be trending that way.

Just don't look at the CFS.

[CAPE]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:06 PM, showmethesnow said:

Not necessarily. With the 500's rotating down with a closed low you have the possibility of that surface low stalling, if not retrograding, waiting for the upper levels to catch up to it. Really wouldn't take too much tweaking at this point to have that become another major hit for portions of our region.

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Yup. This potential event is still a week away, and with the inherent timing errors at this range, there are still a plethora of possibilities.

[WxUSAF]

  On 12/1/2018 at 5:15 AM, mappy said:

 

Can we, uh, tighten up on some of the off topic, wrong, and/or extreme weenie posts?

 

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Absolutely

[NoVaWx]

Need this one to happen was in Colorado for 2016 and they only got 6” around that time so I haven’t seen a real snowstorm since feb 2010. 8 years is too long. 

[osfan24]

Obviously nothing written in stone this far out, but at least there is a good degree of confidence in tracking a serious threat given that all the models have it in some form. 

[Ji]

I think @psu once said that models do much better in nino/blocking years. Do you guys see a scenario where there is no storm at all? Not seeing this att

[snowmagnet]

  On 12/1/2018 at 10:39 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Dead puppies

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I have no words. This is incredible. I know it won’t happen like this, but the potential for early December is amazing. This is going to be a very long week! A lot of screen time for most of us! 

Also, you all have talked about this potential since before Thanksgiving if I remember correctly.  Jan ‘16 comes to mind when all the guidance had a snow storm this far out and for a week we were tracking who would get 3’ and who would just get 2’. 

[osfan24]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:39 PM, Ji said:

I think @psu once said that models do much better in nino/blocking years. Do you guys see a scenario where there is no storm at all? Not seeing this att

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Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:07 PM, showmethesnow said:

That is more inline with the 06Z GEFS which was south of the op.

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  On 12/1/2018 at 12:39 PM, Ji said:

I think @psu once said that models do much better in nino/blocking years. Do you guys see a scenario where there is no storm at all? Not seeing this att

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The suppressed mean is because of timing differences and one or two that don’t have the Storm per se.  The ones with the storm actually don’t have any that look suppressed to me.

This has a classic look to it. 

A lot of people have been talking about this period for a while. I myself wrote a post on this on Tuesday. This has legs IMO

[Ji]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:44 PM, osfan24 said:

Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

I remember that...it was so heartbreaking..we had multiple runs of 20 plus inches. I guess the difference is...this years southern jet is actually real hahah

[WinterWxLuvr]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:44 PM, osfan24 said:

Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

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When the ens members almost all have the storm, I think that worry can be put aside.

[pasnownut]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:06 PM, showmethesnow said:

Not necessarily. With the 500's rotating down with a closed low you have the possibility of that surface low stalling, if not retrograding, waiting for the upper levels to catch up to it. Really wouldn't take too much tweaking at this point to have that become another major hit for portions of our region.

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Looking back over it again, I can see your point and how a retrograde solution would be possible and panels could support that option.  If that happened it would be a rare occurrence, but would be pretty cool to see a follow up wave lay down the goods.  Snow cover from SC all the way to Maine.  Not bad for week 1 of true winter.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:44 PM, osfan24 said:

Of course there is a scenario with no storm at all. Remember last year that one storm that was just going to roll out of the southwest and throw a ton of moisture at us and it just vanished? I think we need to get inside of a week before it becomes a serious threat. I do like how it has the look of a classic blockbuster for our region. It's just really, really early for that kind of storm for our region. I thought 12/19/09 was super early for us.

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I think you’re talking about the HECS that was modeled last year to hit around the last week of Dec? I think that vanished once inside day 6-7 if I remember correctly.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Another thing ... even suppressed storms usually end up further north than modeled 

[osfan24]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:53 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said:

I think you’re talking about the HECS that was modeled last year to hit around the last week of Dec? I think that vanished once inside day 6-7 if I remember correctly.

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Yeah, I think that's it. If I remember correctly, it ended up squashed into Miami or Cuba.

[CAPE]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:47 PM, WinterWxLuvr said:

 

The suppressed mean is because of timing differences and one or two that don’t have the Storm per se.  The ones with the storm actually don’t have any that look suppressed to me.

This has a classic look to it. 

A lot of people have been talking about this period for a while. I myself wrote a post on this on Tuesday. This has legs IMO

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It seems like we have been discussing the potential for this period for a month lol. It has been a persistently good h5 look since it entered the LR radar screen. Then it got lost for a while in the noise of op runs with rainer after rainer, and of course the gloom and doom talk of the advertised relaxation period for mid month. But in the end, here we are looking at what appears to be a legit threat, and in the exact window that looked to be ripe for a winter storm.

[PivotPoint]

A typically good setup for DC/Balt region is when we have WAA start the show. Depicted in the 6z GFS there is a moderate amount of cold air damming when the overruning moisture hits from the southwest. 

Living around here for a number of years I like that type of setup for two reasons:

1. WAA events can give you a really nice thump on the front end. They can come in fast and hard which is great for getting saturation quickly and the show started.

2. If the low tracks inside the coast or it doesn’t deepen quickly enough we will will get rain/mix. However, we would already of had a nice 4-5 hour thump during the WAA so there would most likely be a nice swath of snow already laid down.

So it’s a win and a hedge against risk. That’s why I like these events that start out with WAA snows.

[CAPE]

  On 12/1/2018 at 12:56 PM, osfan24 said:

Yeah, I think that's it. If I remember correctly, it ended up squashed into Miami or Cuba.

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In a Nina, snow and the MA is like magnetic repulsion.

[Ji]

id love to see snow with christmas lights on.....please let this happen....i would be happy with 6-8

[pasnownut]

  On 12/1/2018 at 1:11 PM, Ji said:

id love to see snow with christmas lights on.....please let this happen....i would be happy with 6-8

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if the continued muted look of the warmup continues, i'd think whatever your normal %'s are, that they might rise a bit.  Will be interesting to see what the next week or so shows regarding the evolution of this warmup.

[pasnownut]

  On 12/1/2018 at 1:07 PM, C.A.P.E. said:

In a Nina, snow and the MA is like magnetic repulsion.

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or fatal attraction..........

[GATECH]

How sweet would it be to shatter the wettest year on record with 2 inches of snow equivalent!

[poolz1]

Just the orientation of the snowfall maps look so similar to 09.  Completely agree that with that setup, nobody in the are is getting fringed.  I recall right up to game time in Dec 09 it appeared mby would be "fringed" with 10-14" with jackpot amounts further south...ended up with 22". 

Such a long ways to go with this one but it's tough not to think big with the setup being depicted....