NW Chester County PA Q4 to Date Climate Recap and Fearless Winter Forecast

[ChescoWx]

I am sharing my latest article for the Sweetwater Reported here in East Nantmeal Township - I will grade myself at the end of the season!

Hello again from Paul at the East Nantmeal PA Weather Station (www.chescowx.com). Be sure to follow me on twitter at Twitter as I am tweeting multiple daily climate reports, forecast updates and weather and drone photos of our beautiful Township.

When I wrote my last article, we were nearing the end of what had been a very wet summer season, unfortunately September continued this trend with over 1” of rain falling on 4 days of the month. Overall, we ended September with 8.71” this was the 6^th wettest September dating back to 1894 and the wettest since the 10.97” that fell in 2003. The all-time wettest September was the 14.48” that fell back in 1999 much of that due to the rain from Hurricane Floyd. Temperature wise it was also the 15^th warmest September in our history with an average temperature of 68.2 or 3.3 above normal.

October was a much calmer and finally a drier month ending a streak of 5 consecutive above normal rain months dating back to May. During October only 3.08” fell which is 1.32” below normal. Temperature wise it was a little (+1.8) degrees above normal. While there was a couple morning that we approached freezing with the lowest reading the 34.3 on the 25^th we did not experience anything other than some scattered frost.

November began very warm with the 1^st eight days of the month averaging almost 5 degrees above normal. However, a strong cold front moving through on the 9^th resulted in 17 of the next 20 days averaging below normal. This included our first freeze of the fall season on November 10^th. This ended the East Nantmeal growing season after 203 days (last freeze was April 21^st). Our normal growing season is 188 days. The longest growing season was the 233 days back in 2005, while the shortest was only 119 days back in 1956. Overall through the 28^th we are averaging around 3 degrees below normal for temperatures. In addition to the cold we also experience our first snowfall of the season and a significant early season event at that. The 7.3” that fell on the 15^th and 16^th was the 3^rd largest November snowstorm in Chester County history surpassed only by the 9.5” that fell on November 11, 1906 and the 8.6” that fell on November 6, 1953. We will also finish November as the 6^th snowiest in our history.

So, what does this early winter weather portend for our upcoming winter? To level set folks here in NW Chester County we average 36.7 inches of snow in a typical winter season. My 2017/18 winter forecast from last year was fairly close regarding temperatures but missed badly on how warm (+7.2 degrees) February 2018 actually was. My snow forecast of 50” was a little low, as we ended up with 58.5” of snow with much more (30.6”) falling in March than I had forecasted (7”). One added note this decade is now on pace to potentially be the snowiest decade in Chester County history with an average seasonal snowfall since 2010 of 44.1" this trails only the 1900-1909 decade which averaged 44.9"

Below is my Winter Forecast for East Nantmeal Township with average temperature and snowfall estimates by month. To summarize regarding temperatures.  I see a slightly below normal December due to a cold and relatively snowy first 15 days of the month (watch for snow in the 12/5-10 timeframe).  I then see a warm up before Christmas but turning colder again by New Year’s Eve – so no White Christmas this year. We generally have a 25% chance of a White Christmas with our last being in 2012. I expect a below normal and snowy January followed by a near normal but snowy February, an above normal March and a normal April. Regarding snowfall I am forecasting around 63” of snowfall this winter season or about 26” above our seasonal average. 

·       December 2018 – Avg. Temperature 34.0 degrees (0.5) below normal with Snowfall of 9” which is 4” above normal

·       January 2019 – Avg. Temperature 28.0 degrees (1.9) below normal with Snowfall of 20” or +9” above normal

·       February 2019 – Avg. Temperature 33.0 degrees +0.7 above normal with Snowfall of 18” or +6” above normal

·       March 2019 – Avg. Temperature 42.5 +2.2 above normal with Snowfall of 6” or near normal

·       April 2019 – Avg. Temperature 51.0 (0.2) below normal with Snowfall of 1” or near normal

I hope all of you have a great Christmas, Hanukkah and Holiday Season!  If you have any questions, please visit my website, follow me on twitter and send me an email. Until next time –All the best!  Paul

“Some are weather-wise, some are otherwise” Ben Franklin

[ChescoWx]

Another chilly stat to add to this November as it appears we will finish November with an average daily max of just 47.1 - this will be tied for 2nd coldest daily average max temperature in my 125 year data set tied with November 1996 (interesting) and behind only the 44.4 average max experienced back in 1936 - overall this November will finish 27th coldest out of the last 125 Novembers.