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December 2018 General Discussion


snowlover2

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After 13 days with no measurable snow, should see some wet 10:1'ish lake snow tonight along with strong northerly winds...not a complete return to winter for the UP but I am hopeful in the coming weeks with at least the chance to see some decent snow before the polar vortex attack.

Still measuring 12 and 13" on my two snow sticks, but was down in Marquette yesterday and there was just a few inches otg and even a bare spot opening up here and there. 

While not an ideal December by any means, the snowbelts of the UP will still see a white Christmas.

MQT_snow_00-24hr.thumb.png.c14d0a0c8374ec66f0919835017b49c2.png

 

 

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38 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Same here this morning.  Never been so excited for an inch of snow before :P

Could be measuring snow in feet, however!

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I would narrow that window from 240 hours down to about 152 hours to get a better scope on this single system. Looks like that is showing several systems on these maps.

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

January gonna be rockin'.

I hope so and I remain fairly optimistic about it. MJO looks to head towards phase 7/8 toward or just after new years. Then there's the SSW, but that probably won't have any effects until mid month. We've had pretty atrocious luck with Decembers recently.

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Just now, hlcater said:

I hope so and I remain fairly optimistic about it. MJO looks to head towards phase 7/8 toward or just after new years. Then there's the SSW, but that probably won't have any effects until mid month. We've had pretty atrocious luck with Decembers recently.

As someone who just recently joined this forum and has only lived here for ten years, this is all pretty eye-opening to me. Up until this year, I've never even really considered December as real winter material. Personally, my little eye spies January 1st, though who knows what'll happen with that system. Looks like it could go too far north or south.

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11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

As someone who just recently joined this forum and has only lived here for ten years, this is all pretty eye-opening to me. Up until this year, I've never even really considered December as real winter material. Personally, my little eye spies January 1st, though who knows what'll happen with that system. Looks like it could go too far north or south.

It won't go north, at least further north than the system on the 27th. That much can already be reasonably assumed. What needs to be watched is how strong the high in the northern plains is. Too strong and the system will end up suppressed and no one around here would see too much. Subsequently, models that have a low and not much of a high over MB/SK/ND/SD have a stronger system out of the SW. A wound up system is certainly in the cards, but we need to see how the initial storm on the 27th behaves before even seriously mentioning how the second one will.

EDIT: I don't really like/believe in the way the ECMWF handles the energy in the SW, preferring to back it away over Baja California and cut it off. Screams bias.

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The forecast models definitely get a big fat F in how they handled late tonight/tomorrow's wave.  These subtle waves are usually pretty tricky for the models to handle, but they did an outright horrific job IMO.

DVN mentioning maybe a low-end severe threat later in the day Thu for part of the cwa.  Gotta love to be tracking the possibility of strong convection on xmas eve lol.

Towards 00z Friday, a compact negatively tilted trof is expected to
impact the area.  This will bring the clear slot across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening.  Even though current thermodynamics
show meager CAPE, the strong shear will lead to at least embedded
thunder.  What is not known today is the potential for clear slot
convection later in the day.  Current timing has our CWA primed for
potential clear slot convection.  We will need to see if we can get
a surface based parcel to form in the clear slot.  If we do, then a
threat for strong and even severe storms may be possible.  Again,
too early to say with any certainty that this will occur as the
CAMs may be our best prognostic tool for that as we get closer.

 

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1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The forecast models definitely get a big fat F in how they handled late tonight/tomorrow's wave.  These subtle waves are usually pretty tricky for the models to handle, but they did an outright horrific job IMO.

DVN mentioning maybe a low-end severe threat later in the day Thu for part of the cwa.  Gotta love to be tracking the possibility of strong convection on xmas eve lol.


Towards 00z Friday, a compact negatively tilted trof is expected to
impact the area.  This will bring the clear slot across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening.  Even though current thermodynamics
show meager CAPE, the strong shear will lead to at least embedded
thunder.  What is not known today is the potential for clear slot
convection later in the day.  Current timing has our CWA primed for
potential clear slot convection.  We will need to see if we can get
a surface based parcel to form in the clear slot.  If we do, then a
threat for strong and even severe storms may be possible.  Again,
too early to say with any certainty that this will occur as the
CAMs may be our best prognostic tool for that as we get closer.

 

Also from a non-severe aspect, this system has some impressive wind fields off the deck.  Mixing depth in the warm sector looks pretty poor for the most part, as is often the case, but it improves a bit around the time when a dryslot passes.  Even with crappy mixing, the wind fields look strong enough to produce some gusts over 40 mph.  If mixing to around 850 mb occurs, then couldn't rule out a period of winds into/near high wind warning criteria.

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On 12/16/2018 at 1:42 PM, Hoosier said:

Something of note for Chicago.  Prior to this year, there were 13 Novembers that produced 6"+ snow.  All 13 had at least 3" of snow in the following December.  As of now, ORD sits at 0.3" for December.  If history is any guide, then at least a few more inches should occur by the end of the month, but we shall see.  

Would note a narrow miss of the 6" criteria occurred in 1955, which had 5.9" in November.  December 1955 had 2.1"

The perfect 13/13 record seems to be in jeopardy, as this looks like it has a real shot to be the first time that November has had 6" or more and December has less than 3".  Still sitting at 0.3" for the month and time is running out.  Might have a shot at a little something next weekend, and any system around the New Year looks like it may hold off until January.  

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45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The perfect 13/13 record seems to be in jeopardy, as this looks like it has a real shot to be the first time that November has had 6" or more and December has less than 3".  Still sitting at 0.3" for the month and time is running out.  Might have a shot at a little something next weekend, and any system around the New Year looks like it may hold off until January.  

Yep, a stark contrast to November.  Look to finish Dec with 0.2" here.  Normally I'd be lighting up the complaint thread by this point, but the November storm made the whole winter for me.  FWIW the new Euro still shows the system around the early part of the new year.  

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