December 2018 General Discussion

[weatherbo]

After 13 days with no measurable snow, should see some wet 10:1'ish lake snow tonight along with strong northerly winds...not a complete return to winter for the UP but I am hopeful in the coming weeks with at least the chance to see some decent snow before the polar vortex attack.

Still measuring 12 and 13" on my two snow sticks, but was down in Marquette yesterday and there was just a few inches otg and even a bare spot opening up here and there. 

While not an ideal December by any means, the snowbelts of the UP will still see a white Christmas.

 

 

[Jim Martin]

[Jonger]

My area is actually running near normal on the month.

Lansing is at +0.3 right now..... I'm guessing we finish up no worse than +1 to +1.5.

This has just not been a pattern for snow.

[Hoosier]

There was this weird stuff falling from the sky this morning.  After doing some research, I have come to the conclusion that it was, indeed, snow.

[TugHillMatt]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There was this weird stuff falling from the sky this morning.  After doing some research, I have come to the conclusion that it was, indeed, snow.

Was school cancelled?

[Stebo]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

There was this weird stuff falling from the sky this morning.  After doing some research, I have come to the conclusion that it was, indeed, snow.

The other day this big bright yellow thing was in the sky, I was terrified to death.

[Spartman]

Temps hovered around freezing the the day with wall-to-wall cloudy skies. Though a little warmer the next day, tomorrow won't be any better. Should have rained or even had mood flakes if that way for the entire weekend. Looking forward to an overdue, long, crappy weekend. 

[weatherbo]

Love this pic... yesterday morning on Superior, Thunder Bay. not mine

 

[cyclone77]

1 hour ago, weatherbo said:

Love this pic... yesterday morning on Superior, Thunder Bay. not mine

 

Looks like a ghost ship with all that fog lol.

[Chicago Storm]

Zzzzz


.

[DAFF]

                  n

(Zzzzzzzzz )

[bowtie`]

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Is it too early to start a storm thread for the potential major snowstorm impacting the upper midwest Wed Night-Fri ?

[weatherbo]

14 minutes ago, (((Will))) said:

I am excited.

 

It's also snowing this morning. Big fluffy flakes with no wind. Like in a snow globe.

Same here this morning.  Never been so excited for an inch of snow before

Could be measuring snow in feet, however!

[ILwxchr]

38 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Same here this morning.  Never been so excited for an inch of snow before

Could be measuring snow in feet, however!

I would narrow that window from 240 hours down to about 152 hours to get a better scope on this single system. Looks like that is showing several systems on these maps.

[Geoboy645]

3 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Same here this morning.  Never been so excited for an inch of snow before

Could be measuring snow in feet, however!

That GFS run hurts me on a spiritual level.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

We don't really focus on single storms up here. You get a synoptic storm followed immediately by les followed by a storm - we focus on long term perpetual snow, lol.

LOL, was just thinking the same. In a good stretch, it's pretty much seamless

[hlcater]

NAM got rid of the snow tomorrow night here. The theme of suckage at my location continues. It just never works out it seems like. At this rate that 1-2" would've felt like a significant winter storm.

[cyclone77]

47 minutes ago, hlcater said:

NAM got rid of the snow tomorrow night here. The theme of suckage at my location continues. It just never works out it seems like. At this rate that 1-2" would've felt like a significant winter storm.

January gonna be rockin'.

[hlcater]

Just now, cyclone77 said:

January gonna be rockin'.

I hope so and I remain fairly optimistic about it. MJO looks to head towards phase 7/8 toward or just after new years. Then there's the SSW, but that probably won't have any effects until mid month. We've had pretty atrocious luck with Decembers recently.

[Malacka11]

Just now, hlcater said:

I hope so and I remain fairly optimistic about it. MJO looks to head towards phase 7/8 toward or just after new years. Then there's the SSW, but that probably won't have any effects until mid month. We've had pretty atrocious luck with Decembers recently.

As someone who just recently joined this forum and has only lived here for ten years, this is all pretty eye-opening to me. Up until this year, I've never even really considered December as real winter material. Personally, my little eye spies January 1st, though who knows what'll happen with that system. Looks like it could go too far north or south.

[hlcater]

11 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

As someone who just recently joined this forum and has only lived here for ten years, this is all pretty eye-opening to me. Up until this year, I've never even really considered December as real winter material. Personally, my little eye spies January 1st, though who knows what'll happen with that system. Looks like it could go too far north or south.

It won't go north, at least further north than the system on the 27th. That much can already be reasonably assumed. What needs to be watched is how strong the high in the northern plains is. Too strong and the system will end up suppressed and no one around here would see too much. Subsequently, models that have a low and not much of a high over MB/SK/ND/SD have a stronger system out of the SW. A wound up system is certainly in the cards, but we need to see how the initial storm on the 27th behaves before even seriously mentioning how the second one will.

EDIT: I don't really like/believe in the way the ECMWF handles the energy in the SW, preferring to back it away over Baja California and cut it off. Screams bias.

[ILwxchr]

If it weren't for the temperatures being in the 50s here on Thursday, it would be a downright miserable day. Probably still will be with 1-2" of rain in December. Anything less than frozen precip in December is gross. Unless its severe weather lol.

[Chambana]

It has been downright boring for 3 weeks now. I knew this fast start to winter back in November was alarming. Give me a storm please. 

[cyclone77]

The forecast models definitely get a big fat F in how they handled late tonight/tomorrow's wave.  These subtle waves are usually pretty tricky for the models to handle, but they did an outright horrific job IMO.

DVN mentioning maybe a low-end severe threat later in the day Thu for part of the cwa.  Gotta love to be tracking the possibility of strong convection on xmas eve lol.

Towards 00z Friday, a compact negatively tilted trof is expected to
impact the area.  This will bring the clear slot across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening.  Even though current thermodynamics
show meager CAPE, the strong shear will lead to at least embedded
thunder.  What is not known today is the potential for clear slot
convection later in the day.  Current timing has our CWA primed for
potential clear slot convection.  We will need to see if we can get
a surface based parcel to form in the clear slot.  If we do, then a
threat for strong and even severe storms may be possible.  Again,
too early to say with any certainty that this will occur as the
CAMs may be our best prognostic tool for that as we get closer.

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, cyclone77 said:

The forecast models definitely get a big fat F in how they handled late tonight/tomorrow's wave.  These subtle waves are usually pretty tricky for the models to handle, but they did an outright horrific job IMO.

DVN mentioning maybe a low-end severe threat later in the day Thu for part of the cwa.  Gotta love to be tracking the possibility of strong convection on xmas eve lol.

Towards 00z Friday, a compact negatively tilted trof is expected to
impact the area.  This will bring the clear slot across the area
Thursday afternoon and evening.  Even though current thermodynamics
show meager CAPE, the strong shear will lead to at least embedded
thunder.  What is not known today is the potential for clear slot
convection later in the day.  Current timing has our CWA primed for
potential clear slot convection.  We will need to see if we can get
a surface based parcel to form in the clear slot.  If we do, then a
threat for strong and even severe storms may be possible.  Again,
too early to say with any certainty that this will occur as the
CAMs may be our best prognostic tool for that as we get closer.

 

Also from a non-severe aspect, this system has some impressive wind fields off the deck.  Mixing depth in the warm sector looks pretty poor for the most part, as is often the case, but it improves a bit around the time when a dryslot passes.  Even with crappy mixing, the wind fields look strong enough to produce some gusts over 40 mph.  If mixing to around 850 mb occurs, then couldn't rule out a period of winds into/near high wind warning criteria.

[Hoosier]

On 12/16/2018 at 1:42 PM, Hoosier said:

Something of note for Chicago.  Prior to this year, there were 13 Novembers that produced 6"+ snow.  All 13 had at least 3" of snow in the following December.  As of now, ORD sits at 0.3" for December.  If history is any guide, then at least a few more inches should occur by the end of the month, but we shall see.  

Would note a narrow miss of the 6" criteria occurred in 1955, which had 5.9" in November.  December 1955 had 2.1"

The perfect 13/13 record seems to be in jeopardy, as this looks like it has a real shot to be the first time that November has had 6" or more and December has less than 3".  Still sitting at 0.3" for the month and time is running out.  Might have a shot at a little something next weekend, and any system around the New Year looks like it may hold off until January.  

[BuffaloWeather]

A surprise event here in Hamburg, 4.6" of wet snow. White thanksgiving and Christmas here. 

[cyclone77]

45 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The perfect 13/13 record seems to be in jeopardy, as this looks like it has a real shot to be the first time that November has had 6" or more and December has less than 3".  Still sitting at 0.3" for the month and time is running out.  Might have a shot at a little something next weekend, and any system around the New Year looks like it may hold off until January.  

Yep, a stark contrast to November.  Look to finish Dec with 0.2" here.  Normally I'd be lighting up the complaint thread by this point, but the November storm made the whole winter for me.  FWIW the new Euro still shows the system around the early part of the new year.  

[michsnowfreak]

Some flurries today, but a bare Christmas. Last year at this time the absolute picture-perfect Christmas Eve snowstorm was taking place. Either way, hope everyone has a very Merry Christmas!