December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

59.65" of rainfall for the year at my station in Smithtown as of December 3.  Coincidentally the same as New York City, but we did not get there the same way.

Alas, I haven't been recording rainfall that long, but this is our wettest year.  Second wettest was 2014 at 53.40".  Driest was 2013 at 37.11"

Islip is currently in 4th place for the wettest year on record. The station is on track for its 3rd year with 60.00" of precipitation. 1989 seems to be the big wet year for Suffolk. BNL also had its wettest year in 1989 at 68.66".

#1...65.32...1989

#2...63.49...1990

#3...59.20...1996

#4...58.85...2018

#5...57.65...1998

 

 

[MJO812]

Nice bump north from the gefs and para for this wekeend.

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

Gotta say, despite being a ways out, Im happy with today’s trends, a slower more amplified overall solution allowing that northern stream SW to influence the trough, coupled with more progressive confluence, leads to some nice northward adjustments, the vertically stacked nature means we need more favorable Upper level wind otherwise we sheer our precip shield...a lot of time for this to creep up

[NEG NAO]

7 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice bump north from the gefs and para for this wekeend.

not the weekend anymore - models are slowing it down so if it does not make it here till Monday

[mranger48]

He seems to have one liners that often pan out.


.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, mranger48 said:

He seems to have one liners that often pan out.


.

It's Forky =)

[Brasiluvsnow]

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's Forky =)

I thought the same thing lol

[mranger48]

It's Forky =)

Yup. Over the years He will throw a tidbit like that and 3-4 days later: bam!


.

[IrishRob17]

35 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

It's Forky =)

How’d ya figure that out so fast, Copernicus... 

[hudsonvalley21]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

not the weekend anymore - models are slowing it down so if it does not make it here till Monday

And a little more time for the HP that was forecasted to be overhead for the early part of the weekend here to be in a more favorable position to allow a possible northern trend. Time will tell.

[donsutherland1]

One run, there was no snow at all. The next run there was 14". The former was a bleak nightmare. The latter was a wonderful dream.

The city in question was Richmond. The model in question was the GFS. The runs were the 12/3/2018 12z and 18z runs.

Run-to-run continuity was lacking.

At this stage, it continues to appear that a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. Cities such as Richmond and Raleigh will likely see accumulations.

Whether the storm comes far enough north to bring at least light accumulations north of the Mason-Dixon line remains to be seen. However, even if it does not, winter 2018-19 still appears to be in line for above to much above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic, southern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes region. There still remains a window of opportunity for additional snow in the above region during the last week of December as the pattern becomes more volatile in the latter stages of a milder regime.

Winter 2002-03 continues to provide insight. Much as happened then, the EPO is forecast to go positive. The latest EPS weekly forecast takes the EPO back to negative levels (ensemble mean) by around December 21. Afterward, it stays negative through mid-January (the end of the forecast period). In addition, during much of the time, the same guidance favors a negative AO. The EPO-/AO- combination was an important assumption in my expectation that winter 2018-19 will be very snowy in the Northeast. That such a combination is showing up on the EPS weekly guidance is an encouraging development.

[SnoSki14]

Getting snow with the upcoming system would be quite a rarity. I can't imagine there were many big December snow events with a +AO/NAO. 

If we did somehow thread the needle and get a decent event out of this, 4"+, then I think a 60-70"+ winter would be a lock given the expected pattern for Jan/Feb. 

[qg_omega]

19 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

One run, there was no snow at all. The next run there was 14". The former was a bleak nightmare. The latter was a wonderful dream.

The city in question was Richmond. The model in question was the GFS. The runs were the 12/3/2018 12z and 18z runs.

Run-to-run continuity was lacking.

At this stage, it continues to appear that a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. Cities such as Richmond and Raleigh will likely see accumulations.

Whether the storm comes far enough north to bring at least light accumulations north of the Mason-Dixon line remains to be seen. However, even if it does not, winter 2018-19 still appears to be in line for above to much above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic, southern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes region. There still remains a window of opportunity for additional snow in the above region during the last week of December as the pattern becomes more volatile in the latter stages of a milder regime.

Winter 2002-03 continues to provide insight. Much as happened then, the EPO is forecast to go positive. The latest EPS weekly forecast takes the EPO back to negative levels (ensemble mean) by around December 21. Afterward, it stays negative through mid-January (the end of the forecast period). In addition, during much of the time, the same guidance favors a negative AO. The EPO-/AO- combination was an important assumption in my expectation that winter 2018-19 will be very snowy in the Northeast. That such a combination is showing up on the EPS weekly guidance is an encouraging development.

I disagree Don, much too early to say snow is likely for Carolinas or Virginia.

[donsutherland1]

14 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Getting snow with the upcoming system would be quite a rarity. I can't imagine there were many big December snow events with a +AO/NAO. 

If we did somehow thread the needle and get a decent event out of this, 4"+, then I think a 60-70"+ winter would be a lock given the expected pattern for Jan/Feb. 

The two 6" or greater AO+/NAO+ December snowfalls for New Brunswick, NJ were:

December 28-29, 1990: 8.0" (NYC: 7.2")
December 21-22, 1959: 7.0" (NYC: 13.7")

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I disagree Don, much too early to say snow is likely for Carolinas or Virginia.

Mountains will. I should have said that Richmond and Raleigh may see accumulating snow. Both, of course, have a higher probability of seeing it than the NYC area as things currently stand.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The two 6" or greater AO+/NAO+ December snowfalls for New Brunswick, NJ were:

December 28-29, 1990: 8.0" (NYC: 7.2")
December 21-22, 1959: 7.0" (NYC: 13.7")

That 1990 storm was supposed to be 1-3" and they upped it to 4-6 at the last minute. Ended up with 8" with a glaze on top. It was all gone in 2 days but it was a nice surprise and our biggest snow in nearly 4 years

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Getting snow with the upcoming system would be quite a rarity. I can't imagine there were many big December snow events with a +AO/NAO. 

If we did somehow thread the needle and get a decent event out of this, 4"+, then I think a 60-70"+ winter would be a lock given the expected pattern for Jan/Feb. 

Pna is rising

[Ericjcrash]

16 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I disagree Don, much too early to say snow is likely for Carolinas or Virginia.

If I was in SW VA I'd be on cloud 9. They are as close to a lock as there could be this far out. Wiggle room either way.

[Toekneeweather]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

If I was in SW VA I'd be on cloud 9. They are as close to a lock as there could be this far out. Wiggle room either way.

Lock? We’re 7 days out... 6 for them come on when is day 6 a lock!

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Mountains will. I should have said that Richmond and Raleigh may see accumulating snow. Both, of course, have a higher probability of seeing it than the NYC area as things currently stand.

Sure mountains are much different this time of year

[Ericjcrash]

25 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said:

Lock? We’re 7 days out... 6 for them come on when is day 6 a lock!

I literally said as close as it could be given how far out we are. Nothings ever locked in but they're sitting pretty for now.

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I literally said as close as it could be given how far out we are. Nothings ever locked in but they're sitting pretty for now.

Yes right now but you know we have been through this many times. 

It's never good to call something early. Look what happened to the last storm =)

[Ericjcrash]

6 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Yes right now but you know we have been through this many times. 

It's never good to call something early. Look what happened to the last storm =)

Yeah underestimated CAD. Even more reason to be optimistic there.

[Ericjcrash]

That little inverted trough feature @~48hr getting a little more interesting on guidance tonignt. RGEM showing up to 4" in SNJ

 

[Hailstorm]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

One run, there was no snow at all. The next run there was 14". The former was a bleak nightmare. The latter was a wonderful dream.

The city in question was Richmond. The model in question was the GFS. The runs were the 12/3/2018 12z and 18z runs.

Run-to-run continuity was lacking.

At this stage, it continues to appear that a storm will likely bring accumulating snow to portions of the Carolinas and Virginia. Cities such as Richmond and Raleigh will likely see accumulations.

Whether the storm comes far enough north to bring at least light accumulations north of the Mason-Dixon line remains to be seen. However, even if it does not, winter 2018-19 still appears to be in line for above to much above normal snowfall across the Middle Atlantic, southern New England, and parts of the Great Lakes region. There still remains a window of opportunity for additional snow in the above region during the last week of December as the pattern becomes more volatile in the latter stages of a milder regime.

Winter 2002-03 continues to provide insight. Much as happened then, the EPO is forecast to go positive. The latest EPS weekly forecast takes the EPO back to negative levels (ensemble mean) by around December 21. Afterward, it stays negative through mid-January (the end of the forecast period). In addition, during much of the time, the same guidance favors a negative AO. The EPO-/AO- combination was an important assumption in my expectation that winter 2018-19 will be very snowy in the Northeast. That such a combination is showing up on the EPS weekly guidance is an encouraging development. 

Very detailed and thought-provoking analysis! The latest Euro weeklies that were released tonight depicted a pervasive cross-polar flow from Siberia developing during mid-January. If that scenario verifies, would it be reasonable to ponder that January 2019 can finish with <5 temp departure for NYC, considering the record snow cover, low solar and all the other factors mentioned in your winter outlook? I would love that to play out because NYC desperately needs to set new record low maximums and minimums during winter, lol.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Very detailed and thought-provoking analysis! The latest Euro weeklies that were released tonight depicted a pervasive cross-polar flow from Siberia developing during mid-January. If that scenario verifies, would it be reasonable to ponder that January 2019 can finish with <5 temp departure for NYC, considering the record snow cover, low solar and all the other factors mentioned in your winter outlook? I would love that to play out because NYC desperately needs to set new record low maximums and minimums during winter, lol.

Sustained cross-polar flow would be key.

[Rjay]

The 0z Canadian is lolz.

[Ericjcrash]

Lol Canadian a coastal hugging bomb. Would be horrible. Worry about suppression and then torch instead.

[Rjay]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Lol Canadian a coastal hugging bomb. Would be horrible. Worry about suppression and then torch instead.

Poconos and Catskills crushed 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, Rjay said:

Poconos and Catskills crushed 

Yeah, doesn't do it for me. 

Lol at the Northern stream digging for Cuba last min.