December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only thing that the Euro and GFS agree on is there will be no rush on a strong MJO Push into phase 8. So this is shaping up to be a slow process.

 

I bet in a few days, the progression of these plots will start to speed up and falter. A mixture of these two would be sufficient. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

I bet in a few days, the progression of these plots will start to speed up and falter. A mixture of these two would be sufficient. 

The good news is that we don’t expect much early during El Niño winters. So the meteorological winter thus far is following the El Niño script. Better to get these unfavorable MJO phases and jet extensions in during the first half of El Niño winters. I know people loved December 2009 and 2002, but those were big December outliers. Most El Niño winters were like this one so far for our sensible weather. But we got the first Niña-like +SOI paired up with a December El Niño. So it has been a dueling split flow pattern between the NPAC Jet and STJ. 

[doncat]

I enjoy storms of all sorts not just snow, but even I'm sick of the rain. 12z euro, still don't see any meaningful changes... maybe by day ten as colder air starts to push south.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

I enjoy storms of all sorts not just snow, but even I'm sick of the rain. 12z euro, still don't see any meaningful changes... maybe by day ten as colder air starts to push south.

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

[SnoSki14]

5 hours ago, Snow88 said:

This looks way better than it did yesterday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

Really shows how chaotic things are with the MJO/SOI/SSW. Something is bound to happen eventually, mid to late month remains the target. 

Until then I'd be lying if I said I didn't enjoy days like today. The relatively mild weather, when it doesn't rain, has been nice, it's so much better than the brutal cold from last year. 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

I agree

Jan 10-15

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Really shows how chaotic things are with the MJO/SOI/SSW. Something is bound to happen eventually, mid to late month remains the target. 

Until then I'd be lying if I said I didn't enjoy days like today. The relatively mild weather, when it doesn't rain, has been nice, it's so much better than the brutal cold from last year. 

NYE was brutal last year

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I think it’s getting clearer by the day that we will wait until 1/15 or shortly thereafter before we see a meaningful, lasting change to a colder, snowier pattern

I’ll have to say you and I are in agreement.

my big worry is if we finally get the cold and end up smoking cirrus while DC gets burried

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

I’ll have to say you and I are in agreement.

my big worry is if we finally get the cold and end up smoking cirrus while DC gets burried

Or the pv splits and ends up on the other side of the world. See eps.

[MJO812]

 

Euro ensembles split the vortex but the cold air ends up on the wrong side.

I remember several years ago I was eating outside at spumoni gardens in Brooklyn in short sleeves on NYE.

I wonder if the stratospheric warming is playing tricks with the models.

 

This would have been a slam dunk winter for our area if the mjo cooperated.

 

This would be a huge busts for majority of forecasters if this winter turns out to be a dud.

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Or the pv splits and ends up on the other side of the world. See eps.

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

[Yanksfan]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

You’re 100% right. If that happens we are in real big trouble and my call for mid January busts and busts badly

If that happens there would be some big time weenie cliff diving going on including yours truly.

[snowman19]

51 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

If that happens there would be some big time weenie cliff diving going on including yours truly.

Worst case scenario for January at least. Then you will be depending on February and March for a big flip and by then you start to fight against the clock

[forkyfork]

yeah it never snows in march

[qg_omega]

March snow is the worst snow

[nycwinter]

you can feel the sun angle already becoming a issue

[donsutherland1]

With today's 57° high temperature in New York City, along with today's guidance, the probability of December's having an average temperature of 40.0° or above has increased further. The implied probability based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance is now 75%. The most likely range is 40.0°-40.6°.

Meanwhile, the 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.112.

The MJO will very likely move into Phase 6 in coming days at a high to very high amplitude. During the second week of January, it will likely progress into Phase 7. Initially, both the SOI and Arctic Oscillation (AO) will likely remain predominantly positive. However, as the MJO approaches and then moves into Phase 7, the SOI will likely go persistently negative and the AO will also become increasingly negative. The second half of January could see a predominant PNA+/AO- combination. Such a combination has coincided with some of the region's biggest January snowstorms.

The exceptionally wet year of 2018 will finish in fitting fashion with more rain moving into the region on December 31. It could still be raining as the ball descends on New York City's Times Square. 2019 will very likely begin with temperatures approaching or even reaching their daily record high figures in parts of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Both 1966 and 2005 began in similar fashion across the region. Both winters featured a blizzard during the second half of January (January 29-31, 1966 and January 21-24, 2005). Both winters featured the development of strong Atlantic blocking.

Further, in both cases, the January mean temperature was noticeably lower than the December figure. In the case of January 1966, the mean temperature was 32.2° (8.3° below the preceding December mean). In the case of January 2005, the mean temperature was 31.3° (7.2° below the December mean).

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both 1966 and 2005 began in similar fashion across the region. Both winters featured a blizzard during the second half of January (January 29-31, 1966 and January 21-24, 2005). Both winters featured the development of strong Atlantic blocking.

Further, in both cases, the January mean temperature was noticeably lower than the December figure. In the case of January 1966, the mean temperature was 32.2° (8.3° below the preceding December mean). In the case of January 2005, the mean temperature was 31.3° (7.2° below the December mean).

Any records of what the MJO did those years?

[rclab]

1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

If that happens there would be some big time weenie cliff diving going on including yours truly.

With The way the weather has been lately, the only possible fatalities would be, non swimmers.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any records of what the MJO did those years?

The 2005 blizzard occurred as the MJO moved from Phase 7 into Phase 8. The amplitude was > 1.000.

Daily MJO data is not available for the 1960s. Such data only became available in 1974, though with some gaps in the early part of the records.

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, forkyfork said:

yeah it never snows in march

It sure did in 2001... that was a hell of a historic blizzard! Oh wait..

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Would be interesting to know whether there were any connections to SSWE, like this year. 

Don, something I did not hear about until a couple hours ago was a great post over at 33andrain in the strat thread from Webberweather. He mentions there are ongoing strat warmings at both poles. I was not aware of that.

Thats pretty unusual I would take it ?

Would love your opinion on the topic.

Wonder as well what @Isotherm has to say about it.

Webber states the SH event is the one responsible for the recent MJO issues that started to amp the MJO a few weeks ago and caused the invigoration of the BDC and the subsequent decerleration of the MJO over the Maritime Continent. 

I do feel that the next 60 days will be the most challenging in many years for forecasters.  Of course that rides on my belief of a late Jan flip to very cold and stormy.

Here is part of the post. Thanks  

Posted 1 hour ago

We're getting a 1-2 punch of polar stratospheric warming events in both the northern and southern hemispheres, with the southern hemisphere undergoing final warming. This will continue to favor an accelerated, hyperactive Brewer Dobson Circulation with anomalous upwelling in the tropical stratosphere that favors enhanced tropical convection dominated by westward propagating convectively coupled waves in the warm pool. The southern hemisphere final warming event appears to be one of the catalysts for the observed change in equatorial wave spectra I'll discuss below with the northern hemisphere warming acting to further invigorate the MJO and contribute to its deceleration over the Maritime Continent.

 

 

Thanks for sharing this. I believe the Southern Hemisphere's SSW is largely done. It's certainly plausible that it played some role in amplifying the MJO. The one that is about to peak in the Northern Hemisphere is a wild card that will present some significant extended range forecasting challenges.

[frd]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Thanks for sharing this. I believe the Southern Hemisphere's SSW is largely done. It's certainly plausible that it played some role in amplifying the MJO. The one that is about to peak in the Northern Hemisphere is a wild card that will present some significant extended range forecasting challenges.

Thanks Don. There are some folks in my sub forum that speculate the NH SSW has hampered the positive prospects for the upcoming heart of winter. 

I believe all the options are on the table right now. If things turn out poorly it will be a huge loss for so many of the seasonal models like the JMA, Ukmet, Euro, etc had predicted great winter patterns, plus pro mets as well. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Thanks Don. There are some folks in my sub forum that speculate the NH SSW has hampered the positive prospects for the upcoming heart of winter. 

I believe all the options are on the table right now. If things turn out poorly it will be a huge loss for so many of the seasonal models like the JMA, Ukmet, Euro, etc had predicted great winter patterns, plus pro mets as well. 

It’s far too soon to be confident of the SSW’s impact. It has just peaked. The zonal winds at 10 mb and 30 mb have not yet reversed. The latter may or may not reverse.

[CIK62]

Last 2 days of Dec. averaging 42degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.4[40.2].    Should end Dec. at +2.7[40.3].

All 8 days also averaging 42degs., or about 8degs. AN.

EURO is a Trace of Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 30% on at least 4" by Jan. 15.    

This is a 'Wrong Way Corrigan' outlook.   Soon, we will be told Feb. is the charm.   I will talking about the 'The Ten Day Winter' ala 1982-83 by then.

 

[LibertyBell]

21 hours ago, bluewave said:

These 40 degree and warmer Decembers continue to become more common in NYC. 

 

1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2011	43.3	0
6	1998	43.1	0
7	1982	42.7	0
8	1990	42.6	0
9	1891	42.5	0
10	1994	42.2	0
11	1923	42.0	0
12	2012	41.5	0
13	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
18	1971	40.8	0
19	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
21	1957	40.2	0
22	2018	39.9	3
-	1999	39.9

 

Is Dec 2018 going to be mild enough in the last couple of days to hit 40.0 and not remain stuck at 39.9, Chris?

 

Also, I think that record from Dec 2015 is going to be at the top for awhile lol.

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The good news is that we don’t expect much early during El Niño winters. So the meteorological winter thus far is following the El Niño script. Better to get these unfavorable MJO phases and jet extensions in during the first half of El Niño winters. I know people loved December 2009 and 2002, but those were big December outliers. Most El Niño winters were like this one so far for our sensible weather. But we got the first Niña-like +SOI paired up with a December El Niño. So it has been a dueling split flow pattern between the NPAC Jet and STJ. 

Chris, I thought that if we get snowy cold Decembers in el ninos it usually means it will be a great snow season but if December ends up mild and nonsnowy it means the snow season will be subpar (1977-78 was the exception)?  El Ninos seem to get this rep for being great snow seasons, but they're more about big individual snowstorms, not wall to wall snow.  Our best snow seasons haven't been el ninos.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Is Dec 2018 going to be mild enough in the last couple of days to hit 40.0 and not remain stuck at 39.9, Chris?

 

Also, I think that record from Dec 2015 is going to be at the top for awhile lol.

The warmth yesterday bumped NYC up to 40.2.

 

1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2011	43.3	0
6	1998	43.1	0
7	1982	42.7	0
8	1990	42.6	0
9	1891	42.5	0
10	1994	42.2	0
11	1923	42.0	0
12	2012	41.5	0
13	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
18	1971	40.8	0
19	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
21	2018	40.2	2
-	1957	40.2

[sussexcountyobs]

Snow is falling here currently.  Even the street is white. 

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ 4 sw 740'MSL.  0.1 snowfall since SB 645AM. White it wont last long... EC has been hinting this for about 3 dYS, AND UKMET 00Z/30 6hrly pcpn might be best this morning. HRRR totally missing (HRRRX n/a due to FED shutdown. Will repost in my 12/26 post minor update...no sig changes there first 11 days Jan w my reasoning.