December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[WarrenCtyWx]

1 hour ago, jfklganyc said:

No, I found last February’s 75 degrees at 8pm equally as Unsettling.

 

I do see what you mean about periods like December 2015 being unsettling. As for that date last February, I found the fact that Allentown, Pa (generally a colder climate than NYC) hit 81 degrees to be downright disturbing. We've had many cooler July days with full sunshine.

[SnoSki14]

Feb and Dec 2015 were very unsettling because they were extreme outlier months in less than a year's time.

[Brasiluvsnow]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

MJO has been stuck in phase 5 and now is going to 6.

The favorable phases ( 7-8-1) promotes a ridge in the west which helps promote colder and stormier weather in the east.

Thanks 88 , appreciated 

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[jm1220]

Looks like the progression of the MJO may finally be happening, which can finally put a trough back in the East and access to cold air when it gets to our favorable states. The 1-3/4 system can perhaps be interesting if there's a wave that can amplify enough and some cold air is left around. If the cold air is cut off by the roaring Pacific jet dominated airmass we've been having, it'll be hard for anything to happen regardless. We've had plenty of southern moisture but a totally uncooperative northern stream thus far-crushing/suppressing the major SE early Dec winter storm, and then retreating into Canada. We need the northern stream to help deliver the cold for any storm to deliver while the STJ provides the moisture. As for blocking-if there's a major -NAO episode, it may be to the benefit of the lower Mid Atlantic again and we get shafted like early Feb 2010 if we can't get some help getting a storm to turn the corner. So I wouldn't root on too strong of a blocking period. But it does look like a change is coming to the overall pattern in 7-10 days or so which at least puts us back in the game. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The vort at the SW US ejected too late on this one. 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, weatherpruf said:

We got into a big rowe last year about March really not being a good time of year for most in the NYC/Middlesex Co NJ for big snows. The record speaks for itself, and while there are many notable events, very few surpassed 10 inches. There are people who got absolutely offended at this, but it's true for a large area. There are some areas in the Bronx that have done better, but not Central Park IIRC. We want the conditions from Dec to about the last week of Feb for the best snow results; I 'll bet on a big snow in Dec over March any day. In general though, this year reminds of early 90's winters ( 94 excepted, which was a shock to the system for those of us who grew up in the 70's-80's ).

Yes the last 10 inch snowstorm here in March was the March 1993 superstorm and that didn't even stay all snow because of the track.  There's a huge drop off in such events between the last week of February and the first week of March.

February 2010 had a 20 inch event near the end of the month- when was the last time NYC had that in March? 1888?

 

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, WarrenCtyWx said:

I do see what you mean about periods like December 2015 being unsettling. As for that date last February, I found the fact that Allentown, Pa (generally a colder climate than NYC) hit 81 degrees to be downright disturbing. We've had many cooler July days with full sunshine.

All the bugs (especially ticks) being seen in February made me wonder if we truly were entering a subtropical climate lol

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Super Ninos, of which 97/98 was the only true rat. 82/83 had a blizzard and so did 16/17.

Good thing this is not a super nino. 

Not just blizzards but two of the greatest snowstorms our area (especially the south shore) has ever experienced.  All the snowstorms that were better on the south shore than NYC (like JFK vs NYC) came during moderate or stronger el ninos.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The super Niño forced a ++EPO pattern. It completely overwhelmed the arctic and Atlantic signals 

Winters like 1982-83 and 2015-16 make me believe if we get another El Nino that strong, the chances will be unusually high for a historic snowstorm in February, regardless of how warm December is.

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting  10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

Paul, likely the amount of snow during that period will be more than what we had last year during our snowy period simply because it's a more favorable time of the year for snow.

[MJO812]

Anthony Masiello

BTW, next week's setup for the eastern US has a shot. Post-jet extension EPO cold to work with means snow chances. The 1/3-1/5 period seems to be another recent climo spike in activity too with these EPO shots

[CIK62]

Last 3 days of Dec. averaging 43degs., or about 8degs. AN.

Month to date is +2.0[39.9].     Should end Dec. at +2.5[40.2].

All 8 days averaging 42degs., or 8degs. AN.

EURO is No Snow for next 10 days(looked warmer to boot too).     GEFS is 55% chance of at least 4" by Jan. 14th.

And Godot arrives ....______________.[Fill In Your Date].    Hint>>>He is having trouble at Customs/Security)

What are we suppose to be waiting for anyway?       The GFS has two 'possible' BN days in the next 16 days!

[bluewave]

These 40 degree and warmer Decembers continue to become more common in NYC. 

 

1	2015	50.8	0
2	2001	44.1	0
3	1984	43.7	0
4	2006	43.6	0
5	2011	43.3	0
6	1998	43.1	0
7	1982	42.7	0
8	1990	42.6	0
9	1891	42.5	0
10	1994	42.2	0
11	1923	42.0	0
12	2012	41.5	0
13	1996	41.3	0
-	1953	41.3	0
15	1979	41.1	0
16	1956	40.9	0
-	1931	40.9	0
18	1971	40.8	0
19	2014	40.5	0
-	1965	40.5	0
21	1957	40.2	0
22	2018	39.9	3
-	1999	39.9

 

[donsutherland1]

On December 31, 1831, The New York Advertiser published a few sentences describing New York City's winters from 1789-90 through 1830-31. Its entry for winter 1810-11 read as follows:

Much snow in February, though not much severe cold this winter. This season was remarkable for a severe snowstorm on the 2nd November...

A snowstorm brought accumulating snow as far south as Alexandria, VA and 6"-8" to the New York City area on November 1-2. Does that sound somewhat familiar to this winter?

On November 15, an early-season snowstorm brought 0.5" snow to the Alexandria area, 1.4" to Washington, DC, 3.6" to Philadelphia, and 6.4" to New York City. Parts of Connecticut, New York State, and Pennsylvania received a foot or more of snow.

Back to that past winter, through much of December and January, the winter was not noteworthy. There were no major Arctic outbreaks. There were no big snowstorms. Winter was sleeping. It awakened in late January, as an Arctic blast brought severe cold to the East during the January 23-26 period. The arrival of the cold laid a foundation for two significant snowfalls that occurred in the January 31-February 5 period.

The second storm brought very heavy snow with 1-2 feet in the Northeast. Interior sections of southern New England were buried under 2-3 feet of snow.

Today, we are slogging through what seems to be an endless snow drought. Storms come. The rain falls. But there is no snow. It has been a remarkably wet year. New York City has already received 64.53" of precipitation ranking 2018 as the 5th wettest year on record. Other locations including Atlantic City, Elmira, Hamburg (PA), and Upton have experienced their wettest year on record. And in fitting fashion, more rain could arrive just as the ball is about to descend on the throngs gathered in an area stretching from Times Square to Central Park. Balmy breezes could then define the start of 2019. The thermometer could even flirt with 60°.

Still, for those who want snow, there's no need to become overly discouraged, much less lose hope altogether. A look at the data reveals:

1. An extraordinary high-amplitude MJO is currently nearing the end of Phase 5. It will likely move into Phase 6 before this month ends. After the first week of January, it could then be moving into Phase 7 and later Phase 8. Those are colder phases.

2. The SOI has remained persistently positive (37 of the last 40 days, including today with a 15.98 value bringing the monthly average to 9.56) despite an ongoing El Niño event. If past history with positive December SOI cases during El Niño winters is representative, the proverbial rubber band will very likely snap. January would then feature a predominantly negative and sometimes strongly negative SOI.

3. A negative SOI in January during El Niño winters has typically featured frequent and often strong Atlantic blocking. Also, January MJO Phases 6-8 during El Niño winters promote a negative SOI. In turn, a negative SOI overwhelmingly (>80% cases) during an El Niño January coincides with a negative AO. So, a scenario where the MJO moves into Phase 6, a negative SOI develops afterward and then becomes sustained, and Atlantic blocking follows is the base case for January. The alternative cases that the MJO remains locked in Phase 5 through a large part of January, collapses to low amplitudes, or shifts back toward Phase 4 are very unlikely.

4. As December nears an end, the PDO remains positive. A positive PDO favors PNA ridging in the west (PNA+).

5. The most favorable pattern for big January snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas is the AO-/PNA+ combination. All of New York City's 10" or greater January snowstorms (1950-2018) commenced during that combination. In addition, 10 of the 12 January snowstorms since 1950 that brought 6" or more snow to at least 3 of the following cities--Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC--took place with an AO-/PNA+ combination.

All said, the pieces of the puzzle to winter 2018-19 are slowly coming together. The wait is painful. As the models grapple with the changes that are in their early stages, sometimes taking steps backward, that pain will only increase. However, the time for waiting is diminishing. The EPS weeklies have now had reasonable consistency in the extended range. Some of that extended range is no longer in the fantasy period beyond 3 weeks.

Will winter 2018-19 awaken from its slumber as winter 1810-11 did?

Will the unfolding sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, that is now peaking, lay the foundation for prolonged blocking that lasts deep into meteorological winter and perhaps even into the start of meteorological spring, even if it initially favors Eurasia?

Will winter 2018-19 assume the character of such El Niño winters as 1977-78 where once the snows started falling, they kept falling well into March?

For now, we must wait. Things could be much worse. For example, the following was written of winter 1824-25, "Mild winter with but little snow."

Winter 2018-19 has already featured a significant November snowstorm, severe November cold shot, and a major-to-historic Southeast/Lower Middle Atlantic snowstorm.

While it is true that there are no crystal balls where everything is snowy and the outlook is always certain, I remain encouraged. Taking into consideration the above factors, the large-scale changes now in their early evolution, ENSO climatology, and the repeated recent prophesies of the EPS weeklies, I'm still looking forward to what lies ahead.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

On December 31, 1831, The New York Advertiser published a few sentences describing New York City's winters from 1789-90 through 1830-31. Its entry for winter 1810-11 read as follows:

Much snow in February, though not much severe cold this winter. This season was remarkable for a severe snowstorm on the 2nd November...

A snowstorm brought accumulating snow as far south as Alexandria, VA and 6"-8" to the New York City area on November 1-2. Does that sound somewhat familiar to this winter?

On November 15, an early-season snowstorm brought 0.5" snow to the Alexandria area, 1.4" to Washington, DC, 3.6" to Philadelphia, and 6.4" to New York City. Parts of Connecticut, New York State, and Pennsylvania received a foot or more of snow.

Back to that past winter, through much of December and January, the winter was not noteworthy. There were no major Arctic outbreaks. There were no big snowstorms. Winter was sleeping. It awakened in late January, as an Arctic blast brought severe cold to the East during the January 23-26 period. The arrival of the cold laid a foundation for two significant snowfalls that occurred in the January 31-February 5 period.

The second storm brought very heavy snow with 1-2 feet in the Northeast. Interior sections of southern New England were buried under 2-3 feet of snow.

Today, we are slogging through what seems to be an endless snow drought. Storms come. The rain falls. But there is no snow. It has been a remarkably wet year. New York City has already received 64.53" of precipitation ranking 2018 as the 5th wettest year on record. Other locations including Atlantic City, Elmira, Hamburg (PA), and Upton have experienced their wettest year on record. And in fitting fashion, more rain could arrive just as the ball is about to descend on the throngs gathered in an area stretching from Times Square to Central Park. Balmy breezes could then define the start of 2019. The thermometer could even flirt with 60°.

Still, for those who want snow, there's no need to become overly discouraged, much less lose hope altogether. A look at the data reveals:

1. An extraordinary high-amplitude MJO is currently nearing the end of Phase 5. It will likely move into Phase 6 before this month ends. After the first week of January, it could then be moving into Phase 7 and later Phase 8. Those are colder phases.

2. The SOI has remained persistently positive (37 of the last 40 days, including today with a 15.98 value bringing the monthly average to 9.56) despite an ongoing El Niño event. If past history with positive December SOI cases during El Niño winters is representative, the proverbial rubber band will very likely snap. January would then feature a predominantly negative and sometimes strongly negative SOI.

3. A negative SOI in January during El Niño winters has typically featured frequent and often strong Atlantic blocking. Also, January MJO Phases 6-8 during El Niño winters promote a negative SOI. In turn, a negative SOI overwhelmingly (>80% cases) during an El Niño January coincides with a negative AO. So, a scenario where the MJO moves into Phase 6, a negative SOI develops afterward and then becomes sustained, and Atlantic blocking follows is the base case for January. The alternative cases that the MJO remains locked in Phase 5 through a large part of January, collapses to low amplitudes, or shifts back toward Phase 4 are very unlikely.

4. As December nears an end, the PDO remains positive. A positive PDO favors PNA ridging in the west (PNA+).

5. The most favorable pattern for big January snowstorms in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas is the AO-/PNA+ combination. All of New York City's 10" or greater January snowstorms (1950-2018) commenced during that combination. In addition, 10 of the 12 January snowstorms since 1950 that brought 6" or more snow to at least 3 of the following cities--Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, and Washington, DC--took place with an AO-/PNA+ combination.

All said, the pieces of the puzzle to winter 2018-19 are slowly coming together. The wait is painful. As the models grapple with the changes that are in their early stages, sometimes taking steps backward, that pain will only increase. However, the time for waiting is diminishing. The EPS weeklies have now had reasonable consistency in the extended range. Some of that extended range is no longer in the fantasy period beyond 3 weeks.

Will winter 2018-19 awaken from its slumber as winter 1810-11 did?

Will the unfolding sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, that is now peaking, lay the foundation for prolonged blocking that lasts deep into meteorological winter and perhaps even into the start of meteorological spring, even if it initially favors Eurasia?

Will winter 2018-19 assume the character of such El Niño winters as 1977-78 where once the snows started falling, they kept falling well into March?

For now, we must wait. Things could be much worse. For example, the following was written of winter 1824-25, "Mild winter with but little snow."

Winter 2018-19 has already featured a significant November snowstorm, severe November cold shot, and a major-to-historic Southeast/Lower Middle Atlantic snowstorm.

While it is true that there are no crystal balls where everything is snowy and the outlook is always certain, I remain encouraged. Taking into consideration the above factors, the large-scale changes now in their early evolution, ENSO climatology, and the repeated recent prophesies of the EPS weeklies, I'm still looking forward to what lies ahead.

Great post

The end is near for this bad pattern. Soon we will be swimming in snow =)

[Ralph Wiggum]

EPS took steps back irt the mid month pattern change. PAC firehose continues to hold firm. Trying to keep hope alive but we are slowly losing the guidance that was strongly in favor of the Jan 15+ change to a positive wintertime regime. Need the SOI, MJO, and SSWE to start having positive effects sooner than later on the upcoming pattern else many of those 'epic winter' calls will be in trouble.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

EPS took steps back irt the mid month pattern change. PAC firehose continues to hold firm. Trying to keep hope alive but we are slowly losing the guidance that was strongly in favor of the Jan 15+ change to a positive wintertime regime. Need the SOI, MJO, and SSWE to start having positive effects sooner than later on the upcoming pattern else many of those 'epic winter' calls will be in trouble.

Mjo is about to get out of 5 and heading into 6. All we need it patience.

Things are looking up after next week.

[MJO812]

This looks way better than it did yesterday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

[weatherpruf]

6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the last 10 inch snowstorm here in March was the March 1993 superstorm and that didn't even stay all snow because of the track.  There's a huge drop off in such events between the last week of February and the first week of March.

February 2010 had a 20 inch event near the end of the month- when was the last time NYC had that in March? 1888?

 

And that Feb 2010 event managed to skirt my area too, with an official recording of 8 inches. In fact, not one storm that entire winter delivered much more than that. But to tell the truth, those kinds of events are my favorite. I don't need two feet of snow to enjoy it.

[weatherpruf]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Looks like the progression of the MJO may finally be happening, which can finally put a trough back in the East and access to cold air when it gets to our favorable states. The 1-3/4 system can perhaps be interesting if there's a wave that can amplify enough and some cold air is left around. If the cold air is cut off by the roaring Pacific jet dominated airmass we've been having, it'll be hard for anything to happen regardless. We've had plenty of southern moisture but a totally uncooperative northern stream thus far-crushing/suppressing the major SE early Dec winter storm, and then retreating into Canada. We need the northern stream to help deliver the cold for any storm to deliver while the STJ provides the moisture. As for blocking-if there's a major -NAO episode, it may be to the benefit of the lower Mid Atlantic again and we get shafted like early Feb 2010 if we can't get some help getting a storm to turn the corner. So I wouldn't root on too strong of a blocking period. But it does look like a change is coming to the overall pattern in 7-10 days or so which at least puts us back in the game. 

You are one of the posters here who I pay close attention to. Thanks for that explanation. A 2010 track of storms still gives us possibilities, just not bullseye ones. Better than what we have now.

[bluewave]

The only thing that the Euro and GFS agree on is there will be no rush on a strong MJO Push into phase 8. So this is shaping up to be a slow process.

 

[CIK62]

We have to accept the fact that we are trying to predict the unpredictable.    All we can do is bracket the uncertainties with a +/- and a probability it will fall within those limits.

Same thing happens with economic/stock market predictions.     Somebody is always right, but it never is the same person consistently.

 

Now imagine it is NYE and you and your friend are hiding in the bushes with a clear view of the rear exit of the local pub.     All evening you make bets with each other on which way the next drunk out this door will fall.    Is it forwards, backwards, to the left, or to the right?    Or does he fall at all?     Maybe there is a scientific way to determine the most likely outcome here, but you do not know it, or have the means to employ it if you did.       Results would be close to random.   Same with the atmosphere.    There are probably as many warm/cold outcomes as there are predictions, ie. it is just as likely to happen, even when it is not predicted as when a certain outcome is predicted.

 

[TriPol]

20 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This looks way better than it did yesterday.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.shtml

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.shtml

 

A -AO and a +NAO?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

A -AO and a +NAO?

Yes the AO was  forecasted to govery positive along with the NAO.

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only thing that the Euro and GFS agree on is there will be no rush on a strong MJO Push into phase 8. So this is shaping up to be a slow process.

 

Very slow transition

At least it will be happening during the heart of the winter.

[doncat]

Just have no confidence currently in changing this pattern...things keep looking more promising in the extended but keep getting pushed back. These cutters with their warmups has got to stop...Hate starting off the new year in the 50's. Last new years eve. 8°.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, doncat said:

Just have no confidence currently in changing this pattern...things keep looking more promising in the extended but keep getting pushed back. These cutters with their warmups has got to stop...Hate starting off the new year in the 50's. Last new years eve. 8°.

Last new years eve was really cold

I was lucky that I didn't have to work.

[NEG NAO]