December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[TwcMan]

5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Imagine if this happens?

Winter forecasts will all fail

Yep. At least the January calls would.

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Imagine if this happens?

Winter forecasts will all fail

If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least  

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

If that actually happens, we’re in big trouble, for January at least  

That almost never occurs so I would toss it for now.  It’s more likely to just die than go backwards 

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Did the SOI spike cause the following stall in the MJO? THIS would be very concerning.

Easton or anyone else = Is there anywhere for me to view these myself or are they only on pay sites ?

[TwcMan]

1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Easton or anyone else = Is there anywhere for me to view these myself or are they only on pay sites ?

NOAA

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 minute ago, TwcMan said:

NOAA

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml

Thanks TWC

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Last 4 days of Dec. averaging 46degs., or 11degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.4[39.5].    Dec. should end at +2.6[40.3].

Hottest ever NYD coming?  64 predicted.

EURO is a Trace over next 10 days.    GEFS is about 50/50 on at least 3" by Jan. 13.

No sub-freezing temps. till Jan.07, then maybe 2 weeks of winter.    Really just 3BN days in the next 16 day period, showing up now.   Next 45 look +5.

JB thrown to the canvas and held for the count of 3.   1,2,3---Your're Out!

You`re an idiot , he predicted a warm 20 day period starting on Dec 13- Jan 2 over a month ago. 

He has been spot on. 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting  10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

[495weatherguy]

3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting around 10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 as far as departures go. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

Thank you for the explanation

[TriPol]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

This morning, the SOI rocketed higher to +18.23. It has now been positive 36 out of the last 39 days. Despite the ongoing El Niño event, the December SOI average will very likely be positive. Since 1950, there were only 3 positive December cases during an El Niño event: 1965, 1968, and 1969. All three cases were followed by -10.0 or below January averages. All three prior SOI cases also featured severe Atlantic blocking (monthly AO average of -2.000 or below).

A look at the daily SOI and AO data for January during El Niño events shows a pronounced tendency for Atlantic blocking when the SOI is negative. The below contingency table shows the percentage of days with negative and positive AO values for each state of the SOI.

The guidance, historic sample from above, and ENSO climatology all suggest that the SOI will likely become predominantly negative during January. If the above contingency table is representative, frequent blocking should take place. Moreover, the blocking could become severe.

Often strong blocking has resulted in colder than normal temperatures and a heightened probability of snowfall. For example, during the January 1981-2018 period, cases when the AO was -1.000 or below had a mean temperature of 30.7°. 15.2% of the days saw measurable snowfall and 3.4% of the days saw 4" or more snow. When the AO was -2.000 or below, the mean temperature was 29.6°, 16.3% days (almost 1 in every 6 days) had measurable snowfall, and 3.7° saw 4" or more snow. In contrast, when the AO was positive, the mean temperature was 34.9°, 12.3% days saw measurable snowfall, and 2.1% had 4" or more snow. Days when the AO was -3.000 or below had the highest frequency of receiving 4" or more snow (5.2% of days).

All of New York City's 12" or greater January snowstorms commenced with a negative AO:

January 1964: 12.5" (AO: -1.435)
January 1978: 13.6" (AO: -0.188)
January 1996: 20.2" (AO: -2.091)
January 2005: 13.8" (AO: -1.424)
January 2011: 19.0" (AO: -0.142)
January 2016: 27.5" (AO: -0.236)

All of the above snowstorms also commenced when the PNA was positive. A predominantly positive PNA remains likely given the ongoing positive PDO.

The MJO remained in Phase 5, but its amplitude rose further 3.097. The MJO will likely move into Phase 6 sometime in the December 27-30 timeframe though the potential for a slight delay has increased.

The ongoing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has now seen stratospheric winds reverse at 1 mb. A reversal at 10 mb is likely to occur. It's still too soon to tell regarding 30 mb.

 

Thanks for this, Don. Your contributions to this forum cannot be understated. Question: What are the chances the SOI stays positive into January?

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

If you want to see how bad the CFS is , how does 7 / 8 and this 500 = plus 5 over the next 45 days , maybe the next 10 are plus 15 ( not modeled anywhere )  and we don`t recover  ? 

So it`s not likely given this.

Are the next 10 AN , yes , but once past the 10th , you have to see where even CFS is going....

 

 

 

 

 

This ^ doesn`t give you this ....

 

The Model is garbage. 

 

 

 

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

You`re an idiot , he predicted a warm 20 day period starting on Dec 13- Jan 2 over a month ago. 

He has been spot on. 

I wouldn’t even bother replying. The guys MO is CFS regurgitate, corny joke and repeat. 

Things are delayed, but they will not be denied. This place was a funeral at the exact time of year in 2014.

[forkyfork]

people still read joe bastardi? 

[TriPol]

Also, if there is severe blocking as Don is saying there has been in the past during +SOI Decembers which follow -SOI Januarys, could the blocking be severe enough that we just get cold, dry air and the storms are suppressed to the south of us?

[bluewave]

You can see how all the guidance is struggling with this MJO. Every model has a different forecast over the next week to 10 days. So we go into MJO nowcast mode until we get some model convergence.

Michael Ventrice has some great tweets on what is going on.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1078661726906789888

This is also likely the culprit to the "stalling" of the representation of the MJO per EOF-derived MJO indices in "Phase 5". The MJO is not stalling, but merely the index is seeing the westward propagation in the wind field, causing the RMM PCs to stick in phase 5.

Once the WWB event (causing interference on the RMM PCs) is finished (likely first week of January per EPS), the RMM PCs will relatch back onto the true location of the MJO - which will result in the MJO signal per RMM to orbit into Phase 6-7.

[Yanksfan]

It's unfortunate we had to lose December thanks to the MJO being in a warm phase for the most part. People need to stop freaking out though. WE are currently going through a SSW warming event as we speak. Once that rubber band snaps back post Jan. 10th and we get a full pattern reversal, this board will be rocking.  

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

It's unfortunate we had to lose December thanks to the MJO being in a warm phase for the most part. People need to stop freaking out though. WE are currently going through a SSW warming event as we speak. Once that rubber band snaps back post Jan. 10th and we get a full pattern reversal, this board will be rocking.  

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

people still read joe bastardi? 

Many were in the late 90’s, a couple of Boards and Forums ago.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

12 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

Yeah. That's true. The GFS was demonstrating a coupling failure yesterday. 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

Thanks for this, Don. Your contributions to this forum cannot be understated. Question: What are the chances the SOI stays positive into January?

Low probability of a predominantly positive SOI.

During MJO Phases 6-8 (seemingly likely in January), the SOI has been negative on 67% of days. During El Niño events, that figure rises to 83% of days. Historic experience following a positive December SOI average during an El Niño also favors a negative SOI.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said:

This—I don’t think I read any LR forecast that described a less than snowy winter

Really? Interesting 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

21 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

A SSW doesn’t guarantee a cold east. It could split or displace in a bad spot. It can fail to downwell to the troposphere and couple

 

You can see the where the core of the warming is working it`s way down at 30mb by day 10 and where that is leaving the 3 pieces. 

You are going to block right over the pole as the vortex is splitting into 3 pieces Eastern US / Europe / Eurasia seen on the EPS.  

 

It`s splitting in a great spot for cold. 

 

I believe this will get reflected from the 10th onward. 

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's what I hope doesn't happen-we get the -NAO in March and then have to wait til June for good weather (last year)

CFS monthlies had this exact scenario FWIW but many discarded them because they were cold and rather dry in Jan and Feb once this supposed pattern change takes place. Cautiously optimistic for the time being but admittedly my optimism is beginning to slowly wane. 

[NEG NAO]

Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Yeah. That's true. The GFS was demonstrating a coupling failure yesterday. 

think its accurate ?

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The SOI was more positive this month than any winter month during the La Niña in 16-17 and 17-18. The Pacific has been doing stuff since 2013 we have never seen before.

Average SOI for last 30 days9.33Average SOI for last 90 days3.79Daily contribution to SOI calculation18.27

ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/ncc/www/sco/soi/soiplaintext.html

That's really something, it makes it really hard to rely on past analogs when the pattern is not behaving the way it should. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

Patience , this warm up was seen by the EPS which did a great job drilling the trough in the west and correctly taking the MJO in a warm p5.

Some of us had the warm up only lasting  10 days when in fact it`s going to end up being a warm 20 day period.

So those of us who rushed it were way too fast. 

A 10 day hold in p5 does not make the entire winter and the MJO is on the move with the current SSW will produce this winter. 

This is the 2nd year in a row in which a SSW event happened as the MJO was stuck in a warm phase.

Last year that SSW event began around Feb 20 with the MJO in p7 ( In FEB that`s warm ) . So the effects of blocking really took hold between March 10 - April 20 which lead to our NEG departures. 

You saw a 6 to 8 week period of BN temps as a result. 

This year while stuck in p5 ( Dec 5 is warm )  , the SSW event began around Dec 20 so it`s lead time could place the core of the cold between Jan 10 to Feb 20 which is very much in line with Tom and our thinking.

Jan 10 - Feb 20 represent the core of the negative departures as far as dailies go so having the coldest anomalies during that time could be a perfect storm so to speak.

 

Patience , we go through this every year. 

 

Nothing has changed. 

I would rather have near normal temps during prime climo and peak cold rather than strong negative departures as that generally spells an overwhelmed arctic pattern and dry/suppressed pattern but that's just me. Cold is never a bad thing until there is too much.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's really something, it makes it really hard to rely on past analogs when the pattern is not behaving the way it should. 

that's why anyone trying to figure out what is going to actually verify has only a 50 -50 chance of being correct

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

think its accurate ?

From what I heard, the GFS is terrible in comparison to the GEOS in terms of coupling events. 

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The 1950s were particularly notable- March was the snowiest month for that decade, surpassing both January and February!  The 60s werent shoddy either with March 1960 being one of the coldest of all time along with an HECS and March 1967 being just as good if not better!

 

We got into a big rowe last year about March really not being a good time of year for most in the NYC/Middlesex Co NJ for big snows. The record speaks for itself, and while there are many notable events, very few surpassed 10 inches. There are people who got absolutely offended at this, but it's true for a large area. There are some areas in the Bronx that have done better, but not Central Park IIRC. We want the conditions from Dec to about the last week of Feb for the best snow results; I 'll bet on a big snow in Dec over March any day. In general though, this year reminds of early 90's winters ( 94 excepted, which was a shock to the system for those of us who grew up in the 70's-80's ).

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I would rather have near normal temps during prime climo and peak cold rather than strong negative departures as that generally spells an overwhelmed arctic pattern and dry/suppressed pattern but that's just me. Cold is never a bad thing until there is too much.

A winter storm would likely happen as the blocking starts to weaken.