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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

with over 63" of precipitation for 2018 NYC is averaging over 50" 1970...before that the average was 42" from 1869-1969...driest ten years were from 1956-1965...wettest ten years was from 2002-2011...

NYC decade precipitation averages since 1870.
10 yr.............Ave. per year. lowest and highest year
1870's..............43.73"........39.25".......51.26"
1880's..............43.54"........35.37".......57.16"
1890's..............41.84"........35.37".......48.26"
1900's..............44.84"........37.44".......58.32"
1910's..............44.24"........33.72".......58.00"
1920's..............44.92"........37.76".......56.06"
1930's..............44.60"........33.85".......53.53"
1940's..............42.16"........36.24".......48.51"
1950's..............39.59"........35.58".......45.20"
1960's..............39.74"........26.09".......48.54"
1970's..............52.31"........35.29".......67.03"
1980's..............49.96"........38.11".......80.56"
1990's..............47.29"........40.42".......60.92"
2000's..............53.18"........35.92".......61.70"

2010's..............50.26"........38.51".......72.81" as of 12/26/18

 

1956-1965........36.87"........26.09".......46.39"

2002-2011........56.27"........45.21".......72.81"

1870-
2009................45.14"
1980-
2009................50.14"
1870-
1969................42.92"
1970-
2009................50.64"
 

 

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Cfa

Cfa

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

did anyone see that for a minute their was this bright light that illuminated the dark skies as i was facing queens.. looked to me like some sort of huge fire but now it is out now....

Yes, lasted a few minutes in Harlem, quite a scary sight. Sky turned a greenish blue with a loud electric buzzing sound.

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dWave

dWave

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

 10:10 wins panic in queens...massive transformer explosion in queens the explosion cause the sky to turn a  bright blue it was visible up to westchester country...

Oh sh*t that explains it. I was about to post if anyone saw the sky light up in blinding blue/orange lights. Looking toward LGA from Soundview. 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

electricity blinked in and out in LIC for a minute or so

From NYC’s alert system:

Expect a heavy presence of emergency personnel in the area of 20th Avenue and 31st Street in Queens. Consider alternate routes and allow for additional travel time. If you experience a power outage, please call 9-1-1.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, bluewave said:

Probably a combination of the MJO, El Niño, +SOI, and warmer temperatures. Notice how the snowfall has quickly fallen off this decade when the average December got close to 40 degrees in NYC like this month. There hasn’t been much difference in snowfall between the years near 40 degrees and the historic 50 in 2015.

NYC

2018....39.4....T so far

2017....35.0....7.7

2016....38.3....3.2

2015....50.8....T

2014....40.5....1.0

2013.....38.5....8.6

2012.....41.5....0.4

2011....43.3.....0.0

2010....32.8....20.1

2009....35.9.....12.4

 

Chris, is this the first time we've ever had a 4"+ snowfall in November followed by 0 or T in December?

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

February 14 IMO should be at least a week later - Presidents Day  1 and 2 happened after the 14th

I think sun angle doesn't become an issue until early March.  Through the end of February we are okay (using the late February 2010 storm as an example where we got 20" of snow).  The sun angle problem isn't even a big deal in March for the suburbs but for areas with a lot of urban development, it's real- beginning in early March.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

If you look at snowfall records we have gone through plenty of snowy Decembers since record keeping began and plenty of shutouts as well. The 1950's were not particularly snowy during the month of December at Central Park with an average snowfall of only ~4.725" and only one double digit snowfall, (15.8" in 1959). 

On the other hand, the late 40's were particularly snowy in December at Central Park with an average snowfall of 14.58" from 1945-1949. Three of those years featured greater than 12" totals with the other two years under 1.5". 

Perhaps the most striking aspect of all the data is that a heavy December snowfall at Central Park one year seemed to have little or no correlation in terms of overall snowfall during that time period. Snowy decades or periods are more about perception than reality. 

Interesting thing about the 50s was that the snowiest month for the entire decade was March.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, Gravity Wave said:

Last year proved you can get accumulating snow down to the coast in March as long as you have sufficient snowfall rates and decent temps. The issue for NYC with last March's storms is that it was either a degree or two too warm, or the heaviest rates set up just east of the city. Still got a decent storm out of the last one.

My favorite was actually the April snowstorm..... something about April snows lol

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through December 26, New York City (Central Park) has a monthly mean temperature of 39.4° (1.2° above normal). Based on the latest guidance, the probability that December will finish with a mean temperature of 40° or above has increased. If so, December 2018 would be the 5th year in the 2010-2018 period to have a monthly mean temperature of 40° or above. That would match the number of such cases during the 1990-1999 period.

During the 1869-1989 period, there were 12 such cases. From 1990-2017 there have been 11 such cases.

Applying sensitivity analysis to the guidance, the most likely range for the December 2018 mean temperature is 39.7° - 40.5°. The implied probability of an above normal month is approximately 99.9%. The implied probability of December's averaging 40° or above has increased to 53%.

Earlier, I mentioned that Winter 1965-66 is among the three El Niño cases since 1950 that featured a positive SOI average, as is very likely this December. For the following January, the SOI averaged -12.0.
Here's a quick comparison of December 1965 and December 2018:

SOI: 1965: +1.6; 2018: +9.0 (through 12/27)
AO: 1965: +0.163; 2018: +0.095 (preliminary figures through 12/27)
Mean Temperature: 1965: 40.5°; 2018: 40.1° (latest estimate)
Snowfall: 1965: Trace; 2018: Trace (through 12/27)

December 2018 has been much wetter than December 1965 with 4.34” to date vs. 1.72” for December 1965. The 1964-66 drought finally broke in September 1966. 1965 recorded just 26.09” precipitation.

January 1, 1966 saw the temperature reach 62°. The latest GFS MOS guidance suggests that the temperature could make a run at 60° on January 1.

Nevertheless, January saw a big pattern change unfold. The AO went negative on 1/2 and then reached -1.000 on 1/8. Afterward, the month featured sustained deep blocking. The monthly AO average was -3.232.

As a result, the monthly mean temperature was 32.2°. Total snowfall was 11.6" as a blizzard affected parts of the East with its heaviest snows just missing New York City. February also featured strong blocking with a monthly AO average of -1.438 with monthly snowfall of 9.8". Again, it bears noting that 1965-66 took place within the context of a historic regional drought.

As noted in an earlier discussion, some big developments that will impact the pattern evolution are ongoing. The SOI is heading lower in discontinuous fashion. Based on ENSO climatology and historic experience with cases featuring a positive December SOI during El Niño events, a negative SOI is very likely in January. The MJO is in Phase 5 with an extreme amplitude in excess of 3.000. A sudden stratospheric warming event is underway and the stratospheric winds have already reversed at 1 mb and are forecast to do so at 10 mb in the next day or two.

 

The following winter (1966-67) was far more memorable than 1965-66 was, Don.  1965-66 was mostly a midAtlantic winter (DC and south), 1966-67 gave us the goods and was one of the two historic winters in the 60s (the other was 1960-61 of course.)  Maybe next winter will be the big one for us :P  It's also worth noting that the 1966 summer was one of our hottest!  I'd love to get a hot/dry summer followed by cold/snowy next winter!

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

Not directed at you at all.

 

Just a general post...we keep talking about historical records with hope for January and saving the winter.

 

Look at all of history then. Early Nov snow, El Nino...history says we will see one or two moderate to big snowstorms (possibly very late) and have a lot of waiting around in between.

 

Generalizing El Nino in NYC ... warm, wet, stormy. Exactly what we are seeing.

Yes, when you look at our biggest seasonal snowfall winters, very few of them were el ninos (1995-96, 1947-48, 1960-61, 1966-67, 2010-11- none of them were el ninos and were among our most memorable winters).  Sure there were others that made the list that were el ninos like 1977-78 or 2002-03 or 2009-10 but they mostly made the list because of one or two big snowstorms in February.

 

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CIK62

CIK62

Posted
Posted

Last 4 days of Dec. averaging 46degs., or 11degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.4[39.5].    Dec. should end at +2.6[40.3].

Hottest ever NYD coming?  64 predicted.

EURO is a Trace over next 10 days.    GEFS is about 50/50 on at least 3" by Jan. 13.

No sub-freezing temps. till Jan.07, then maybe 2 weeks of winter.    Really just 3BN days in the next 16 day period, showing up now.   Next 45 look +5.

JB thrown to the canvas and held for the count of 3.   1,2,3---Your're Out!

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted

This morning, the SOI rocketed higher to +18.23. It has now been positive 36 out of the last 39 days. Despite the ongoing El Niño event, the December SOI average will very likely be positive. Since 1950, there were only 3 positive December cases during an El Niño event: 1965, 1968, and 1969. All three cases were followed by -10.0 or below January averages. All three prior SOI cases also featured severe Atlantic blocking (monthly AO average of -2.000 or below).

A look at the daily SOI and AO data for January during El Niño events shows a pronounced tendency for Atlantic blocking when the SOI is negative. The below contingency table shows the percentage of days with negative and positive AO values for each state of the SOI.

Jan-SOI-AO.jpg

The guidance, historic sample from above, and ENSO climatology all suggest that the SOI will likely become predominantly negative during January. If the above contingency table is representative, frequent blocking should take place. Moreover, the blocking could become severe.

Often strong blocking has resulted in colder than normal temperatures and a heightened probability of snowfall. For example, during the January 1981-2018 period, cases when the AO was -1.000 or below had a mean temperature of 30.7°. 15.2% of the days saw measurable snowfall and 3.4% of the days saw 4" or more snow. When the AO was -2.000 or below, the mean temperature was 29.6°, 16.3% days (almost 1 in every 6 days) had measurable snowfall, and 3.7° saw 4" or more snow. In contrast, when the AO was positive, the mean temperature was 34.9°, 12.3% days saw measurable snowfall, and 2.1% had 4" or more snow. Days when the AO was -3.000 or below had the highest frequency of receiving 4" or more snow (5.2% of days).

All of New York City's 12" or greater January snowstorms commenced with a negative AO:

January 1964: 12.5" (AO: -1.435)
January 1978: 13.6" (AO: -0.188)
January 1996: 20.2" (AO: -2.091)
January 2005: 13.8" (AO: -1.424)
January 2011: 19.0" (AO: -0.142)
January 2016: 27.5" (AO: -0.236)

All of the above snowstorms also commenced when the PNA was positive. A predominantly positive PNA remains likely given the ongoing positive PDO.

The MJO remained in Phase 5, but its amplitude rose further 3.097. The MJO will likely move into Phase 6 sometime in the December 27-30 timeframe though the potential for a slight delay has increased.

The ongoing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event has now seen stratospheric winds reverse at 1 mb. A reversal at 10 mb is likely to occur. It's still too soon to tell regarding 30 mb.

 

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

The following winter (1966-67) was far more memorable than 1965-66 was, Don.  1965-66 was mostly a midAtlantic winter (DC and south), 1966-67 gave us the goods and was one of the two historic winters in the 60s (the other was 1960-61 of course.)  Maybe next winter will be the big one for us :P  It's also worth noting that the 1966 summer was one of our hottest!  I'd love to get a hot/dry summer followed by cold/snowy next winter!

 

Yes, 1966-67 was a lot snowier. I was focusing on atypical December SOI cases during El Niño winters and what followed in January (big pattern change with abundant Atlantic blocking).

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Chris, is this the first time we've ever had a 4"+ snowfall in November followed by 0 or T in December?

 

It happend before. In fact, a November with 4” or more has been a reliable indicator of very little snowfall in December. Just to difficult to sustain a snowy November pattern into December. 

NYC Nov snowfall of 4” or more and Dec with snowfall after Jan 1

......Nov......Dec....Year.....snowfall after Jan 1

#1...19.0.....1.5....1898.....35.4

#2...14.0.......T.....1882......30.1

#3...12.8......1.7...1938......22.8

#4....6.4........T......2018

#5....6.3........3.0....1892.....40.1

#6....5.0.......13.0...1896

#7....4.7........0.4.....2012....21.0

#8....4.7........1.4.....1989....7.3

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The problem doesn’t really start til March 1.  As we’ve seen the last few years climo argues against any big storms for the coast that late.  Despite the fact models on several occasions showed something huge 1-2 days out we’ve had 2-3 massive busts in that span 

We had 8" here on March 21st last year and 6" on April 2nd. Not sure what you mean.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nzucker said:

We had 8" here on March 21st last year and 6" on April 2nd. Not sure what you mean.

I think he just means the sharp drop off after the end of February of historic (20") events for urban areas.  The late Feb 2010 snowicane is the latest one that happened since the area has been urbanized

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
Just now, LibertyBell said:

I think he just means the sharp drop off after the end of February of historic (20") events for urban areas.  T

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It happend before. In fact, a November with 4” or more has been a reliable indicator of very little snowfall in December. Just to difficult to sustain a snowy November pattern into December. 

NYC Nov snowfall of 4” or more and Dec with snowfall after Jan 1

......Nov......Dec....Year.....snowfall after Jan 1

#1...19.0.....1.5....1898.....35.4

#2...14.0.......T.....1882......30.1

#3...12.8......1.7...1938......22.8

#4....6.4........T......2018

#5....6.3........3.0....1892.....40.1

#6....5.0.......13.0...1896

#7....4.7........0.4.....2012....21.0

#8....4.7........1.4.....1989....7.3

he late Feb 2010 snowicane is the latest one that happened since the area has been urbanized

Thanks Chris, it sounds like the reason for this might be that early season great patterns dont last very long, not like they do if a great pattern started in, lets say the last week of December (a la 2010-11).

So getting a great pattern in the middle of November, gives us an area of subsidence (figuratively speaking lol) in December.

But the above list of years also did confirm what my intuition said that 40" of snow should be the most we should expect for the season- although in our current wet climate, who knows, we might set  a new precedent.

 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Long range model depictions are a train wreck and getting worse. Mild and wet through mid-January. Incoming ratter? 

If we have a ratter it will rank up there as one of the biggest busts in LR forecasting in a long time-most had this as a decent/snowy winter.  Still time to save it, but we are wasting precious weeks now approaching the heart of winter.   

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