December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[NEG NAO]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of Dec. averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.2[39.4].    Should end Dec. about +2.3[39.9].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN.

EURO lost its 8" snowstorm [of 1/03], and is back at No Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 55% chance of 3" by the 12th.

I am looking forward to the day that they start using atmospheric models to predict the economy and stock market.    Really, all this force fitting of analogs and antilogs, changing analogs each week etc., is getting us nowhere.  I speak of JB of course.

Ridge over Bahamas and Carr. stays put till the 8th., when it gets shoved over the GOM.

 

good analysis - January should be colder on average then December BUT the "epic" January and February some are expecting is not guaranteed......

[Superstorm]

Great data
I had no idea that December was so snowy during the ‘50’s

And I believe that is why people always think winters were snowier back then. Everyone remembers snow especially around the holidays.


.

[NJwx85]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Better question is why are we getting shut out for December even though it hasn't been all that warm.  We've had a stormy pattern all month, just no snow lol.

Largely unfavorable teleconnections which have resulted in storm tracks that have been to our West or way to the South. Rain vs snow this time of year really boils down to whether or not you're in the warm sector or the cold sector of a system. Even storms that bury the East coast have warm sectors sitting just offshore. 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, jfklganyc said:

At the moment, Stop looking at Decemeber through the prism of past years. If you wanted to use the prism of past years, our winter was screwed the minute we had 6 inches of early Nov snow.

It cant work both ways...you believe past is indicative of the future, you have to embrace it all...not just the convenient parts.

 

Back to this December, the pattern just isnt there. If the models posted by various users on here are to be used to facilitate discussion and predictions...the pattern change is 10 days away. And has been 10 days away for the past 2 weeks. Even the NYE snow is now a cutter

 

At what point is winter considered “saved?” Late January, Big February, Giant March snowstorm? All subjective.

 

At this point December thru Jan 7 looks gone. We will know shortly if that gets extended til Jan 14

 

At this point, Jan 14 - Feb 14 is the only time we'll really have for any significant snowstorms. After Feb 14, sun angle becomes a problem for any 12"+ storms. Hard to see this as a 40"+ winter.

[allgame830]

Just now, TriPol said:

At this point, Jan 14 - Feb 14 is the only time we'll really have for any significant snowstorms. After Feb 14, sun angle becomes a problem for any 12"+ storms. Hard to see this as a 40"+ winter.

You guys are funny.... so you only need 12”+ snowstorms to add to your total... HAHA.... what happened last March... that sun angle argument is brought up every single winter it’s an makes me crazy... what should be said is that pecip rates need to be greater as you get later in the season!

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, TriPol said:

At this point, Jan 14 - Feb 14 is the only time we'll really have for any significant snowstorms. After Feb 14, sun angle becomes a problem for any 12"+ storms. Hard to see this as a 40"+ winter.

February 14 IMO should be at least a week later - Presidents Day  1 and 2 happened after the 14th

[NJwx85]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

And I believe that is why people always think winters were snowier back then. Everyone remembers snow especially around the holidays.


.

If you look at snowfall records we have gone through plenty of snowy Decembers since record keeping began and plenty of shutouts as well. The 1950's were not particularly snowy during the month of December at Central Park with an average snowfall of only ~4.725" and only one double digit snowfall, (15.8" in 1959). 

On the other hand, the late 40's were particularly snowy in December at Central Park with an average snowfall of 14.58" from 1945-1949. Three of those years featured greater than 12" totals with the other two years under 1.5". 

Perhaps the most striking aspect of all the data is that a heavy December snowfall at Central Park one year seemed to have little or no correlation in terms of overall snowfall during that time period. Snowy decades or periods are more about perception than reality. 

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

February 14 IMO should be at least a week later - Presidents Day  1 and 2 happened after the 14th

The problem doesn’t really start til March 1.  As we’ve seen the last few years climo argues against any big storms for the coast that late.  Despite the fact models on several occasions showed something huge 1-2 days out we’ve had 2-3 massive busts in that span 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

4 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Remainder of Dec. averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.2[39.4].    Should end Dec. about +2.3[39.9].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN.

EURO lost its 8" snowstorm [of 1/03], and is back at No Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 55% chance of 3" by the 12th.

I am looking forward to the day that they start using atmospheric models to predict the economy and stock market.    Really, all this force fitting of analogs and antilogs, changing analogs each week etc., is getting us nowhere.  I speak of JB of course.

Ridge over Bahamas and Carr. stays put till the 8th., when it gets shoved over the GOM.

 

 

He forecasted a well AN period from Dec 10 - Jan 10. Has been preaching this warm up everyday for 3 weeks. 

He`s been using 02/ 03 ad nauseam.  Doesn`t work everywhere , but the length of the break does. 

Not sure he`s a culprit here. 

Some of rushed the cold back , he was right , we were wrong.

 

This break looks spot on. 

 

 

[NJwx85]

I remember how warm last January and February were and a lot of people including myself thought that Winter was over and that it was going to be a very early Spring and then March happened and even though the immediate coast didn't see as much snow as I did, it had more to do with storm track rather than sun angle or climo. 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I remember how warm last January and February were and a lot of people including myself thought that Winter was over and that it was going to be a very early Spring and then March happened and even though the immediate coast didn't see as much snow as I did, it had more to do with storm track rather than sun angle or climo. 

March was pretty much the result of a SSW event otherwise it likely torches as well.  The remarkable thing about last February is it was literally the second February in a row with a massive torch.  Many cities in the east rebroke their all time February monthly record only one year after they broke it 

[bluewave]

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Better question is why are we getting shut out for December even though it hasn't been all that warm.  We've had a stormy pattern all month, just no snow lol.

Probably a combination of the MJO, El Niño, +SOI, and warmer temperatures. Notice how the snowfall has quickly fallen off this decade when the average December got close to 40 degrees in NYC like this month. There hasn’t been much difference in snowfall between the years near 40 degrees and the historic 50 in 2015.

NYC

2018....39.4....T so far

2017....35.0....7.7

2016....38.3....3.2

2015....50.8....T

2014....40.5....1.0

2013.....38.5....8.6

2012.....41.5....0.4

2011....43.3.....0.0

2010....32.8....20.1

2009....35.9.....12.4

 

[psv88]

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I remember how warm last January and February were and a lot of people including myself thought that Winter was over and that it was going to be a very early Spring and then March happened and even though the immediate coast didn't see as much snow as I did, it had more to do with storm track rather than sun angle or climo. 

Pretty sure the coast, at least out this way, had a 12+" event last March...

[NorthShoreWx]

9 hours ago, sferic said:

Are you sure that wasn't 2.2.77?

Positive.  Here is a handwritten log with a few observations from central park for that event on 2/2/1976.

 

 

[TriPol]

32 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pretty sure the coast, at least out this way, had a 12+" event last March...

Last March was a tight gradient. Central Park didn't even have 4".

[psv88]

32 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Positive.  Here is a handwritten log with a few observations from central park for that event on 2/2/1976.

 

 

Is that your log?

[sferic]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Positive.  Here is a handwritten log with a few observations from central park for that event on 2/2/1976.

 

 

WOW, I take your word for it.

 

I do remember a flash freeze in Brooklyn during the first week of February in 1977. I remember because "ROOTS" was on ABC, and a powerful squall line came in with a huge drop in temps, 60MPH winds and 2 inches of snow. Wish I knew the exact date though. Again, great notes, I did the same in my youth before auto recording PWSs

[NorthShoreWx]

45 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pretty sure the coast, at least out this way, had a 12+" event last March...

35" of snow after March 1 here.  36" at ISP, I think.

Ran some averages for the past 10 winters.  Quite a snowy period (2008-9 through 2017-18)

10 winter averages:

Upton (BNL) - 47.8"

ISP - 47.1"

Central Park - 38.6"

Smithtown - 49.0"

 

Upton's good run continues, but it's tempered compared to a little further west over the past few years.  Even ISP is almost caught up for the 10 year period.

 

 

[NorthShoreWx]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Is that your log?

I was an organized little bugger.  Maybe explains why I am a project manager now. 

 

There was no internet so you had to write things down if you wanted to refer back to them.

 

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, sferic said:

WOW, I take your word for it.

 

I do remember a flash freeze in Brooklyn during the first week of February in 1977. I remember because "ROOTS" was on ABC, and a powerful squall line came in with a huge drop in temps, 60MPH winds and 2 inches of snow. Wish I knew the exact date though. Again, great notes, I did the same in my youth before auto recording PWSs

That was 1-28-77. 

1977-01-28	44	13	28.5	-4.3	36	0	0.02	0.2	2
1977-01-29	13	1	7.0	-25.9	58	0	0.00	0.0	2

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That was 1-28-77. 

1977-01-28	44	13	28.5	-4.3	36	0	0.02	0.2	2
1977-01-29	13	1	7.0	-25.9	58	0	0.00	0.0	2

Thanks. What are your thoughts on the remainder of the winter season? Do you anticipate the projected pattern flip and resulting above average snowfall winter?

[bluewave]

45 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks. What are your thoughts on the remainder of the winter season? Do you anticipate the projected pattern flip and resulting above average snowfall winter?

El Niño along with 2010’s climatology favors a more back-loaded winter. But we’ll probably have to wait and see just how back-loaded it turns out to be.

[HVSnowLover]

That wave that looks to form along the front on the 2nd looks mildly interesting, that must have been what the Euro was hinting at yesterday with the 12Z run. The way this winter is going and given the pattern/airmass in place it probably won't amount to much if anything but at this point I am tracking anything.  

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

That wave that looks to form along the front on the 2nd looks mildly interesting, that must have been what the Euro was hinting at yesterday with the 12Z run. The way this winter is going and given the pattern/airmass in place it probably won't amount to much if anything but at this point I am tracking anything.  

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that threat pans out.  The GFS and Euro have wanted to suppress it somewhat on recent runs but given tendency recently and last year years of that WAR to overperform I have a feeling this is going to happen.  It may end up mostly an inland threat though 

[donsutherland1]

The SOI has now been positive for 35 of the last 38 days. During December, the SOI has averaged +9.0. That is on track to be the highest positive December figure on record during an El Niño. During the 1969-70 El Niño, December had a +3.7 SOI average. Since 1950, there were only 3 positive December cases during an El Niño event: 1965, 1968, and 1969. All three cases were followed by -10.0 or below January averages. Despite the return to positive SOI values, the guidance still suggests the development of a sustained period of negative SOI values in coming days. Interestingly enough, all three prior SOI cases also featured severe Atlantic blocking (monthly AO average of -2.000 or below).

There's a big difference between an AO+ and a strongly negative AO in January in New York City. For example, using the January 1981-2018 data, the mean temperature for AO+ January cases is 34.9°; for cases when the AO is -2.000 or below, the mean temperature is 29.6°. In addition, the frequency of days with 4" or more snow is about 50% greater for AO -2.000 or below cases than it is for AO+ cases.

The latest guidance shows the potential for the development of deep Atlantic blocking. If it develops, and much may depend on the continuing evolution of the ongoing sudden stratospheric warming event, cold and opportunities for snowfall (possibly significant) will return.

 

[dmillz25]

57 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Last March was a tight gradient. Central Park didn't even have 4".

Huh? They finished with 20” for the month I believe 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Anyone think that the SSW could push the PV to the other side of the globe?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, dmillz25 said:

Huh? They finished with 20” for the month I believe 

 

Finished with 11.6" of snowfall.

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Anyone think that the SSW could push the PV to the other side of the globe?

It could but it shouldn’t matter much if the true El Niño climo sets in with the Aleutian low and BC ridge.  If that PAC refuses to cooperate it won’t matter much even if the PV came to this side 

[Gravity Wave]

Last year proved you can get accumulating snow down to the coast in March as long as you have sufficient snowfall rates and decent temps. The issue for NYC with last March's storms is that it was either a degree or two too warm, or the heaviest rates set up just east of the city. Still got a decent storm out of the last one.