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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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11 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The school district I was in had no snow days between February 1969 and January 1978.  Partly due to the lack of storms, partly due to storms happening on weekends and partly because the school districts were less paranoid about lawsuits then.  I remember watching 9" of snow fall outside the classroom window in February 1975.  We went home on a normal bus schedule as the snow was ending.  I don't recall any undue drama around it.  There would be months of outrage if that happened today.  I'm not nostalgic for those years, but there's BS in 2018 life that sucks.

One correction to my own post. I pretty sure there was a snow day on 2/2/1976.  2" of snow that started at 6am and ended at 9am, but the flash freeze that was involved made it a good call.

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17 hours ago, Snow88 said:

If the 30th wave doesn't happen. It can easily come back on the models as we get closer ( might be the typical vanishing time period )

If this wave does fail , I don't see anything good until the 2nd week of January just like everyone has been saying.

I hate losing opportunities in the winter.

It probably wont happen, but it was never going to be much anyway

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

NYC has only seen 40" or more one time in the January 15-March 1 timeframe. During January 15, 2014-March 1, 2014 total snowfall was 42.3".

What about in 1978 Don?  Two blizzards and perhaps some other events thrown in there.

And in February 2003 I think JFK had over 30" in February alone.

Ditto for the Jan 15-Mar 1 period in 2016.  Well, that was over 30" in just one storm lol.

 

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5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Thank you Don. I didn’t look up the actual data but I knew such a scenario was not only unlikely but an extremely rare feat. Even if extended 3 more weeks to 3/21, an extreme rarity still I’m sure 

SM it's easier if you have one historic (24+) snowstorm plus at least one or two moderate ones- we had that here (using JFK for data) in 2003 and 2016 and perhaps a few other years.  Surprised 1978 isn't on the list.

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27 Dec 2018 1008.54 1004.50 1.66 9.23 3.48
26 Dec 2018 1008.83 1005.75 -3.32 9.37 3.39
25 Dec 2018 1009.69 1005.60 1.92 9.48 3.37
24 Dec 2018 1010.56 1005.75 5.66 9.41 3.34
23 Dec 2018 1011.65 1005.45 12.87 9.35 3.16

The SOI is hitting the third plateau of intensity. The SOI will waver from neutral to negative in the next several days or so, based on the previous progression. 

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3 hours ago, Snowshack said:

We average about 25” in JFM, so add what fell in November to that and I think it’s still reasonable to think we get to 30”.  And given the extremes of the 2000’s, really anything is still on the table.   We could register 30” in March.  

With how extremely wet this whole year it's been it's very possible.  I would be cautious about expecting 50" of snow but 40" is certainly doable.

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11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Honestly, over the last couple of winters, the Euro has lost a lot of its luster. Flip flops and busts a lot more than I can ever remember. The Para GFS has definitely not been the best either, the guys in the NE forum just pointed this out as well

I remember the first storm that really shellshocked us about the Euro was the Jan 2014 "HECS" that was consistently showing us 30"+ on the Euro (and Upton even put that in their forecasts) and the 30"+ occurred about 100 miles east of here on the eastern end of LI.

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2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Better question is why are we getting shut out for December even though it hasn't been all that warm.  We've had a stormy pattern all month, just no snow lol.

MJO in the warmer phases kept influencing an SE Ridge or a improper alignment between two jet streams. Along with a lack of HLB and almost zero Pacific Ridging at the same. 

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13 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

A good amount of school districts on Long Island, particularly Nassau county had no snow days or just one total between 1/22/87 and 2/8/94.  Mine was one of them.  It’s fairly remarkable given 6-8 inches tends to be about the threshold that closes most districts that we went 5 full years without one.  Again there was some bad luck in there such as storms falling on weekends or holidays like thanksgiving 1989, 93 blizzard 

No snow days at all here between 1982 and 1991 that I can remember at all. Both the April 82 and Feb 83 blizzards occurred around weekends or major holidays.  We did have school opening delays or early closings (in Feb 1983 we got released an hour early.)  Outside of those two storms, our biggest events was the very rare 6-8 inch events that also seemed to always occur on weekends lol.

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9 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

MJO in the warmer phases kept influencing an SE Ridge or a improper alignment between two jet streams. Along with a lack of HLB and almost zero Pacific Ridging at the same. 

Thanks, was the early December storm that buried the south more a matter of bad luck for us or was that something that actually had a high chance of happening based on the MJO?  I see some saying that was a matter of bad luck for us since if you ran that pattern 10 times, the majority of the time we would have gotten at least something out of it.

 

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15 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

The early cold was a tease, the big snowstorm this month hit the SE, there was no snow, there was way too much rain, constant cutters. Temperature departures will end up at +2 or better. 

Nothing will ever be worse than Dec 2015 but it's in the top 5 worst (last 25-30) years to me.

The futility of Dec 2015 was tempered by the fact that we had the largest snowstorm our area has experienced in Jan 2016.  Plus Dec 2015 was a bit more tolerable by the fact that it wasnt 35-40 and raining, it was mild so we saved on heating bills.  Thats how it should be if it's not going to snow.

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16 hours ago, North and West said:

That seems a bit extreme; I thought it was interesting being very cold early in the month. Of course, we all enjoy snow, but I thought it was interesting. I could do without so much rain, though.

Yep, we've had too much rain all year, the summer was particularly horrific.

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, was the early December storm that buried the south more a matter of bad luck for us or was that something that actually had a high chance of happening based on the MJO?  I see some saying that was a matter of bad luck for us since if you ran that pattern 10 times, the majority of the time we would have gotten at least something out of it.

 

That was due to the northern vort flattening out. The culprit? The NAO. It was Positive. The Strong HP near Western Africa and Portugal and a strong low pressure at Northern Europe is a classic +NAO signature. That prevents the flow of the trough from slowing down and buckling and the storm will just roll to our south. 

1218358893_Screenshot(7).png.6493f7bd80f8923bc21ef9a4798e935d.png

PositiveNAO.jpg.2a606b063ae9c72aef8be343356270af.jpg

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7 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

That was due to the northern vort flattening out. The culprit? The NAO. It was Positive. The Strong HP near Western Africa and Portugal and a strong low pressure at Northern Europe is a classic +NAO signature. That prevents the flow of the trough from slowing down and buckling and the storm will just roll to our south. 

1218358893_Screenshot(7).png.6493f7bd80f8923bc21ef9a4798e935d.png

PositiveNAO.jpg.2a606b063ae9c72aef8be343356270af.jpg

So if we have a repeat of that after Jan 15 when the NAO is progged to be negative, the results will be much more favorable for us.

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Remainder of Dec. averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.2[39.4].    Should end Dec. about +2.3[39.9].

All 8 days are averaging 44degs., or about 10degs. AN.

EURO lost its 8" snowstorm [of 1/03], and is back at No Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 55% chance of 3" by the 12th.

I am looking forward to the day that they start using atmospheric models to predict the economy and stock market.    Really, all this force fitting of analogs and antilogs, changing analogs each week etc., is getting us nowhere.  I speak of JB of course.

Ridge over Bahamas and Carr. stays put till the 8th., when it gets shoved over the GOM.

 

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26 minutes ago, doncat said:

It is hard to believe that some of us will finish with no measurable  snow for Dec after how promising it looked earlier in the month...Oh well...Two more rain events before months end look likely, so getting closer to that 70" ytd precip total here.

The amount of rain we have had this year is impressive

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5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

December is the only winter month with declining snowfall since the 1940’s for NYC. January and February have been increasing. This gives us the more backloaded winter experience that has become common in recent years.

 

668CDDA7-7066-4DEE-8114-84221B661E7F.thumb.jpeg.71efc7f5d6c9c916a33a98ca1984f1ae.jpeg

E2731EFB-AFD5-4972-AF5D-75E185C8CC1C.thumb.jpeg.c54941180cf914e5a3af050482910a42.jpeg

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Great data

I had no idea that December was so snowy during the ‘50’s

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At the moment, Stop looking at Decemeber through the prism of past years. If you wanted to use the prism of past years, our winter was screwed the minute we had 6 inches of early Nov snow.

It cant work both ways...you believe past is indicative of the future, you have to embrace it all...not just the convenient parts.

 

Back to this December, the pattern just isnt there. If the models posted by various users on here are to be used to facilitate discussion and predictions...the pattern change is 10 days away. And has been 10 days away for the past 2 weeks. Even the NYE snow is now a cutter

 

At what point is winter considered “saved?” Late January, Big February, Giant March snowstorm? All subjective.

 

At this point December thru Jan 7 looks gone. We will know shortly if that gets extended til Jan 14

 

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30 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Great data

I had no idea that December was so snowy during the ‘50’s

The 1940’s and 1960’s were the decades back then that had the record snowfall. The great snowfall between December 2000 and 2010 could have pushed back against the trend if it was sustained through the 2010’s. Since the 09-10 winter, this is the 6th below normal December monthly snowfall in NYC in 10 years. So this month isn’t much of an outlier compared to recent history.

NYC December snowfall

1 2018 T 5
2 2017 7.7 0
3 2016 3.2 0
4 2015 T 0
5 2014 1.0 0
6 2013 8.6 0
7 2012 0.4 0
8 2011 0.0 0
9 2010 20.1 0
10 2009 12.4 0
11 2008 6.0 0
12 2007 2.9 0
13 2006 0.0 0
14 2005 9.7 0
15 2004 3.0 0
16 2003 19.8 0
17 2002 11.0 0
18 2001 T 0
19 2000 13.4 0
20 1999 T 0
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At the moment, Stop looking at Decemeber through the prism of past years. If you wanted to use the prism of past years, our winter was screwed the minute we had 6 inches of early Nov snow.

It cant work both ways...you believe past is indicative of the future, you have to embrace it all...not just the convenient parts.

 

 

not not sure if this is directed at me or not.  Nonetheless I enjoy your posts.  Usually.  I don’t believe I’ve said the past is indicative of the future.  Ive tried to use my experiences, nothing more or less.  

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

What about in 1978 Don?  Two blizzards and perhaps some other events thrown in there.

And in February 2003 I think JFK had over 30" in February alone.

Ditto for the Jan 15-Mar 1 period in 2016.  Well, that was over 30" in just one storm lol.

 

The data I provided was for Central Park. 1978 fell short, but there was additional accumulating snow in March. During 2016, aside from the record-setting snowstorm, very little snow fell during the January 15-March 1 period.

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Not directed at you at all.

 

Just a general post...we keep talking about historical records with hope for January and saving the winter.

 

Look at all of history then. Early Nov snow, El Nino...history says we will see one or two moderate to big snowstorms (possibly very late) and have a lot of waiting around in between.

 

Generalizing El Nino in NYC ... warm, wet, stormy. Exactly what we are seeing.

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22 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Not directed at you at all.

 

Just a general post...we keep talking about historical records with hope for January and saving the winter.

 

Look at all of history then. Early Nov snow, El Nino...history says we will see one or two moderate to big snowstorms (possibly very late) and have a lot of waiting around in between.

 

Generalizing El Nino in NYC ... warm, wet, stormy. Exactly what we are seeing.

Understood

I wouldn’t mind a big storm or two—what I cannot seem to understand is the forecasting for NYC in January and February to become the North Pole with cold and snow.   This scenario may or may not play out, I caution against absolutes in weather forecasting.   Remember the Meterologist from WCBS in NYC who forecast a 3 foot storm in March of 2001?  I may be off in the details there but the message is the same, things can and do change

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