December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[495weatherguy]

36 minutes ago, North and West said:

Of course. It's just interesting to see these things as I get older. I'm not as disappointed as my kids; it's good character-building for them to see this after enjoying a snow day in November. 

Yes!

[gravitylover]

Boy you young'ns are so spoiled  You'd all lose your minds if you had to go years between snowstorms of more than an inch or two or if every storm started with some sort of frozen precip and ended as rain. That's what it was inside of 287 for most of the first 28 years of my life. When it goes back to that, which it inevitably will, what are you all going to do? 

[qg_omega]

On 12/18/2018 at 8:37 PM, qg_omega said:

It's actually meaningless at this stage, just noise and a no storm is just as likely

Just as likely as flipping a coin at that range like I said

[North and West]

7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Boy you young'ns are so spoiled  You'd all lose your minds if you had to go years between snowstorms of more than an inch or two or if every storm started with some sort of frozen precip and ended as rain. That's what it was inside of 287 for most of the first 28 years of my life. When it goes back to that, which it inevitably will, what are you all going to do? 

We had one (!) snow day in my entire elementary school career, courtesy of the March 1993 storm. I used to think Christmas movies lied since they would show snow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[TriPol]

8 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Boy you young'ns are so spoiled  You'd all lose your minds if you had to go years between snowstorms of more than an inch or two or if every storm started with some sort of frozen precip and ended as rain. That's what it was inside of 287 for most of the first 28 years of my life. When it goes back to that, which it inevitably will, what are you all going to do? 

Don't be so sure. Our climate is much warmer today than it was in the 80s and 90s. Even a 1 degree (celsius) variance in temperatures could mean the difference between a 1001 low sitting off the coast and a much bigger, more potent storm.

[bluewave]

It’s just too difficult to get a 6 inch of greater snowstorm in both Nov and Dec near the coast. We saw this most recently back in 2012. During all the seasons with a 6 inch or greater Nov snowstorm, none followed up with another as soon as December. But all the seasons had further such storms later in the season.

Years with Nov 6”+ snowstorm near the coast

2018

2012........1 event in Feb 2013

1938........1 event in Jan 1939

1898........2 events in Feb 1899

1882........2 events in Feb 1883

[gravitylover]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

We had one (!) snow day in my entire elementary school career, courtesy of the March 1993 storm. I used to think Christmas movies lied since they would show snow. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

We had quite a few in the 70's but other than Jan/Feb 78 only a couple were truly justified. 

Just now, TriPol said:

Don't be so sure. Our climate is much warmer today than it was in the 80s and 90s. Even a 1 degree (celsius) variance in temperatures could mean the difference between a 1001 low sitting off the coast and a much bigger, more potent storm.

And any of those bigger storms could end up being exceptionally wet rather than white. Sure there's pulling down cold and all of that but it's going to get really hard to overcome a warmer ocean with air that's not as cold as it used to be. More potent may not be a good thing, look at those intense thunderstorms in Feb 16. I had snow on the ground when it happened and we ended up with ~3" of rain one afternoon. Yup there was cold involved, that's why they were so potent, but it wasn't cold enough. I think we'll see more of that  

[sferic]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just too difficult to get a 6 inch of greater snowstorm in both Nov and Dec near the coast. We saw this most recently back in 2012. During all the seasons with a 6 inch or greater Nov snowstorm, none followed up with another as soon as December. But all the seasons had further such storms later in the season.

Years with Nov 6”+ snowstorm near the coast

2018

2012........1 event in Feb 2013

1938........1 event in Jan 1939

1898........2 events in Feb 1899

1882........2 events in Feb 1883

How about Thanksgiving's snowstorm from 1989?

[TriPol]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just too difficult to get a 6 inch of greater snowstorm in both Nov and Dec near the coast. We saw this most recently back in 2012. During all the seasons with a 6 inch or greater Nov snowstorm, none followed up with another as soon as December. But all the seasons had further such storms later in the season.

Years with Nov 6”+ snowstorm near the coast

2018

2012........1 event in Feb 2013

1938........1 event in Jan 1939

1898........2 events in Feb 1899

1882........2 events in Feb 1883

I remember December 2003 had close to 20" at Central Park

[North and West]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s just too difficult to get a 6 inch of greater snowstorm in both Nov and Dec near the coast. We saw this most recently back in 2012. During all the seasons with a 6 inch or greater Nov snowstorm, none followed up with another as soon as December. But all the seasons had further such storms later in the season.

Years with Nov 6”+ snowstorm near the coast

2018

2012........1 event in Feb 2013

1938........1 event in Jan 1939

1898........2 events in Feb 1899

1882........2 events in Feb 1883

Small sample size, though. Sure, it correlates, but it's too few to extrapolate. 

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

Small sample size, though. Sure, it correlates, but it's too few to extrapolate. 

True. It’s a very small sample size. But the pattern required to produce a warming level November snowstorm hasn’t been able to persist into December. While we are in a snowier era now, there are still some things that are too difficult to pull off.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Post your favorite para model

[NorthShoreWx]

52 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

We had quite a few in the 70's but other than Jan/Feb 78 only a couple were truly justified. 

And any of those bigger storms could end up being exceptionally wet rather than white. Sure there's pulling down cold and all of that but it's going to get really hard to overcome a warmer ocean with air that's not as cold as it used to be. More potent may not be a good thing, look at those intense thunderstorms in Feb 16. I had snow on the ground when it happened and we ended up with ~3" of rain one afternoon. Yup there was cold involved, that's why they were so potent, but it wasn't cold enough. I think we'll see more of that  

The school district I was in had no snow days between February 1969 and January 1978.  Partly due to the lack of storms, partly due to storms happening on weekends and partly because the school districts were less paranoid about lawsuits then.  I remember watching 9" of snow fall outside the classroom window in February 1975.  We went home on a normal bus schedule as the snow was ending.  I don't recall any undue drama around it.  There would be months of outrage if that happened today.  I'm not nostalgic for those years, but there's BS in 2018 life that sucks.

[bluewave]

12 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The school district I was in had no snow days between February 1969 and January 1978.  Partly due to the lack of storms, partly due to storms happening on weekends and partly because the school districts were less paranoid about lawsuits then.  I remember watching 9" of snow fall outside the classroom window in February 1975.  We went home on a normal bus schedule as the snow was ending.  I don't recall any undue drama around it.  There would be months of outrage if that happened today.  I'm not nostalgic for those years, but there's BS in 2018 life that sucks.

My first snow day was 1-20-78. NOAA weather radio had rain heavy at times. But the next morning we had a surprise 12-18”. Probably the most positive snowstorm bust that I can remember. 2nd place would be the surprise 6-10” on 1-23-87. Honorable mention goes to Christmas 2002.

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The school district I was in had no snow days between February 1969 and January 1978.  Partly due to the lack of storms, partly due to storms happening on weekends and partly because the school districts were less paranoid about lawsuits then.  I remember watching 9" of snow fall outside the classroom window in February 1975.  We went home on a normal bus schedule as the snow was ending.  I don't recall any undue drama around it.  There would be months of outrage if that happened today.  I'm not nostalgic for those years, but there's BS in 2018 life that sucks.

A good amount of school districts on Long Island, particularly Nassau county had no snow days or just one total between 1/22/87 and 2/8/94.  Mine was one of them.  It’s fairly remarkable given 6-8 inches tends to be about the threshold that closes most districts that we went 5 full years without one.  Again there was some bad luck in there such as storms falling on weekends or holidays like thanksgiving 1989, 93 blizzard 

[uncle W]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My first snow day was 1-20-78. NOAA weather radio had rain heavy at times. But the next morning we had a surprise 12-18”. Probably the most positive snowstorm bust that I can remember. 2nd place would be the surprise 6-10” on 1-23-87.

that evening when the snow was falling I was watching Alan Kasper and he was concerned the snow rain line was moving south so he upped his totals to 8" when everyone else was 3" over to rain...it ended up 14" ending as a mix...my best busts are March 3rd 1960 and February 9th 1969...

[Tatamy]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My first snow day was 1-20-78. NOAA weather radio had rain heavy at times. But the next morning we had a surprise 12-18”. Probably the most positive snowstorm bust that I can remember. 2nd place would be the surprise 6-10” on 1-23-87.

Regarding 1-20-78 Alan Kasper on Ch 2 had 3-6” in the 11pm news the night before.  He said the storm was tracking about 50 miles further east than expected.  There were reports on WCBS am of truckers encountering a wall of snow near exit 8 on the NJ Turnpike at about 10 pm the night before as the precip moved up the coast.  I awoke at 6am in East Northport to a strange darkness on my 2nd floor side window as it was blocked by a snow drift on the garage roof.  Accuweather on 1010 WINS and WCBS kept increasing snow totals while indicating that a change to sleet and rain was moving north along the NJ coast but was delayed.  I was 16 and had never seen anything like this before.  I was too young to remember the Lindsay storm in 1969.  The young guys on these boards have no idea how good they have it as compared to those of us who grew up in the 70s and 80s in this region.  It was my greatest surprise snow storm bust to the upside.  November 15th of this year would be #2.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, uncle W said:

that evening when the snow was falling I was watching Alan Kasper and he was concerned the snow rain line was moving south so he upped his totals to 8" when everyone else was 3" over to rain...it ended up 14" ending as a mix...my best busts are March 3rd 1960 and February 9th 1969...

Yeah, those were the only really positive busts that I can remember from the 1970’s and 1980’s. There were just too many negative busts to remember. You knew the snow forecast wasn’t going to pan out when the moon was visible through a thin cirrus layer.

[North and West]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the only really positive busts that I can remember from the 1970’s and 1980’s. There were just too many negative busts to remember. You knew the snow forecast wasn’t going to pan out when the moon was visible through a thin cirrus layer.

Sounds like January 2015 here! (and most of my childhood prior to 1994...)

[Zelocita Weather]

I hear the EURO is intriguing....from what New England and M/A looks like a 2-4” type deal

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Regarding 1-20-78 Alan Kasper on Ch 2 had 3-6” in the 11pm news the night before.  He said the storm was tracking about 50 miles further east than expected.  There were reports on WCBS am of truckers encountering a wall of snow near exit 8 on the NJ Turnpike at about 10 pm the night before as the precip moved up the coast.  I awoke at 6am in East Northport to a strange darkness on my 2nd floor side window as it was blocked by a snow drift on the garage roof.  Accuweather on 1010 WINS and WCBS kept increasing snow totals while indicating that a change to sleet and rain was moving north along the NJ coast but was delayed.  I was 16 and had never seen anything like this before.  I was too young to remember the Lindsay storm in 1969.  The young guys on these boards have no idea how good they have it as compared to those of us who grew up in the 70s and 80s in this region.  It was my greatest surprise snow storm bust to the upside.  November 15th of this year would be #2.

I didn’t see those later in the evening forecasts since it was a school night. My weather radio was still repeating the 4pm forecast. Alan Kasper was my favorite TV forecaster of the 1970’s. I can remember first hearing about the potential of Hurricane Belle coming up the coast on one of his broadcasts.

[uncle W]

there were many good busts back in the 1960's and 70's...there were also many bad busts...one of the worst was in early January 1970...As soon as I heard there was a heavy snow warning Dim Sun appeared and the snow stopped...

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The GEFS still has that mega amplitude like yesterday through Phase 7.

[North and West]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I didn’t see those later in the evening forecasts since it was a school night. My weather radio was still repeating the 4pm forecast. Alan Kasper was my favorite TV forecaster of the 1970’s. I can remember first hearing about the potential of Hurricane Belle coming up the coast on one of his broadcasts.

I'm not nostalgic for it, but there's something to be said about having a lack of resources like we had growing up. Now I feel - even though I enjoy scrolling through this board this time of year - just inundated (no pun intended) with differing scenarios. 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

I hear the EURO is intriguing....from what New England and M/A looks like a 2-4” type deal

First week of January

Patience is key here

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the only really positive busts that I can remember from the 1970’s and 1980’s. There were just too many negative busts to remember. You knew the snow forecast wasn’t going to pan out when the moon was visible through a thin cirrus layer.

Remember those busts very well too.  Funny thing is with one of those events back in the early 80s enough snow made it up the coast so ACY received 1” and I experienced flurries where I was.

[bluewave]

19 minutes ago, North and West said:

I'm not nostalgic for it, but there's something to be said about having a lack of resources like we had growing up. Now I feel - even though I enjoy scrolling through this board this time of year - just inundated (no pun intended) with differing scenarios. 

We never had the problem back then of getting worn out tracking a system for a week. Storm details often had to wait until it was already happening. Things started to improve when the Euro began to get good in the 90’s. The Euro beating the MRF-AVN(old GFS) in March 93 and January 96 was the turning point.

[TwcMan]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We never had the problem back then of getting worn out tracking a system for a week. Storm details often had to wait until it was already happening. Things started to improve when the Euro began to get good in the 90’s. The Euro beating the MRF in March 93 and January 96 was the turning point.

We need that EURO back..

[bluewave]

14 minutes ago, TwcMan said:

We need that EURO back..

I like how the day 1-5 and 6-10 EPS does with the general pattern. But the NAM is becoming the new short term go to model with many of our snowstorms. 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the only really positive busts that I can remember from the 1970’s and 1980’s. There were just too many negative busts to remember. You knew the snow forecast wasn’t going to pan out when the moon was visible through a thin cirrus layer.

How about Groundhog Day in 1976?  Do you remember that.  That was on a school day.  Woke up to blinding heavy snow, wind gusts estimated to 40 to 60 mph (estimated as my wind instruments were frozen solid) continuous thunder and lightning, and my barometer dropping past 28.60”.  No one ever talks about that one and it was not forecasted either.  Low pressure unexpectedly bombed on an arctic front.