NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 39 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The biggest risks will be after 1/1. well after 1/1 as another flooding event is being advertised by the GFS Para after the new year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 I kind of buy the Arctic like wave for NYE after the 27/28 cutter. The post Superbowl event comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I kind of buy the Arctic like wave for NYE after the 27/28 cutter. The post Superbowl event comes to mind. Gfs looks good for NYE. It will all be about timing for the NYE event like it always is. Like Earthlight and others have said , a better pattern will evolve as we head into January.w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: well after 1/1 as another flooding event is being advertised by the GFS Para after the new year Check out the ensembles this far out. Don't use op runs in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: The biggest risks will be after 1/1. Agree Don Tellies look better moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Okay. Let's get real. When do you think we will reverse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 15 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Check out the geps ( ggem ensembles for the same timeframe ) Way colder with a trough in the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Okay. Let's get real. When do you think we will reverse? IMO we will continue in the current pattern cold - followed by rainstorms into the first week of 2019 then we will transition into a persistent cold pattern with plenty of blocking -NAO and a positive PNA and the EPO improving by the 10th.Wild Card is the MJO IMO...…….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 33 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: IMO we will continue in the current pattern cold - followed by rainstorms into the first week of 2019 then we will transition into a persistent cold pattern with plenty of blocking -NAO and a positive PNA and the EPO improving by the 10th.Wild Card is the MJO IMO...…….. Mjo is moving along to the favorable phases Euro was really close with the NYE storm. That is the next storm we have to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 52 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: We don't live at 18k feet Surface is alot colder . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 I think we'll get the 27/28 cutter followed by a potential wave/snow threat for NYE, which will then be followed by another cutter first week of Jan. Each week in January will get progressively more favorable then it's probably game on last 7-10 days of Jan into Feb. MJO should gradually move into the favorable phases as the month rolls on, SSW influences could also kick in late Jan tanking the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: there is no proof the MJO is moving along to favorable phases which in January are 8 -1-2 and 3. Right now its stuck in 5 - why are you looking at an euro op run ? No proof? Do you even look at maps or just go by what Upton says? I rather look at an euro op run than a 240 hour cmc run or a para gfs run in the long range. Para has been awful. The ensembles and op runs are hinting at a possible storm but go ahead ,ignore the signal. I'm not saying it will def happen but we should watch it. Every other forum is starting to track this possible NYE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Phase 6 and 7 in Jan in positive enso years are cold phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: no proof dude - show me a chart where the mjo is going to enter 8 - 1 - 2 - or 3 I said it's traveling through 6 I'm done replying to someone who thinks they know it all Let's all track the upcoming pattern and hope for a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: I said it's traveling through 6 I'm done replying to someone who thinks they know it all Let's all track the upcoming pattern and hope for a snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Alot of uncertainty right now. Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky.... Patience is the key for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just now, Brian5671 said: Alot of uncertainty right now. Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky.... Patience is the key for the next couple weeks. How is it shaky? Everything is coming along as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Lmao boy this thread is comedy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 23 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Lmao boy this thread is comedy yup 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Alot of uncertainty right now. Last 10 days of December will certainly not be as cold as some thought, another cutter on the 28th and maybe another one after that and the SSW event that looked likely is now shaky.... Patience is the key for the next couple weeks. agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...…….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: yup agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...…….. it's almost always slower than modeled, you'll note we keep pushing back...got to get things to move up and not be 10 days away. Last week of December looks to be average to above average for temps with one day in the upper 50's with the next cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave0176 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Well I’m hoping Jan and Feb are good because after St Pats day I’m done with winter and want the warmth. Outside of Jan 2016 we’ve been in a bit of a snow hole here in Port Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 57 minutes ago, dave0176 said: Well I’m hoping Jan and Feb are good because after St Pats day I’m done with winter and want the warmth. Outside of Jan 2016 we’ve been in a bit of a snow hole here in Port Reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 When do we start talking about sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Dan76 said: When do we start talking about sun angle The sun angle gets worse every day from here on. Just sayin’ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 8 weeks until pitchers and catchers, 10 weeks until March 1st. Speaking of March, I had about 45” last March. Not sure why people are getting bent out of shape about the lack of snow in December. December is late Autumn, not deep Winter. Be happy we had a bonus storm in November and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 21 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 8 weeks until pitchers and catchers, 10 weeks until March 1st. Speaking of March, I had about 45” last March. Not sure why people are getting bent out of shape about the lack of snow in December. December is late Autumn, not deep Winter. Be happy we had a bonus storm in November and move on. Two reasons. December averages anywhere from 5-10 inches for the month through most of our region so getting shut out is annoying. The second and biggest reason is every snow weenie wants snow before or on Christmas. They'd be freaks if they didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 NYC has only had a single white Christmas in my lifetime (90’s baby), it simply isn’t a reasonable expectation, in my humble opinion. Snow before the New Year should be viewed as an appetizer, January-March is the meal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 FWIW local tv weather peeps now saying chance of snow Xmas eve,,,,just sayin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 7 hours ago, NEG NAO said: yup agreed - some folks think this pattern is going to radically change at the flip of a switch with consistent cold and snow chances - going to take till the second week in January to get where we want to be IMO and who knows how long that will last once the pattern flips to colder and snowier...…….. If it transitions to the pattern that was predicted at the peak of snow season, then it may take until Jan 20 or so, which is what happened in 13-14. But you could still get a solid 6 weeks to 8 weeks of snow and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said: FWIW local tv weather peeps now saying chance of snow Xmas eve,,,,just sayin Yes your area could get 1-2" Accumulation chances are north of I-287. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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