December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

26 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

another cutter around the 28th so more warmth like today.  Definitely wiping out the negative departures of the 1st 10-12 days

 

Doesn't matter anyway. That's what a typical El Nino does. So it sounds like the coupling is starting to take effect. La Nina Decembers are typically colder. 

[Brian5671]

12 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

 

Doesn't matter anyway. That's what a typical El Nino does. So it sounds like the coupling is starting to take effect. La Nina Decembers are typically colder. 

good point on the Nina-remember last year?   Went below freezing 12/25 and was largely bitter cold right through the blizzard to break the pattern...1/6

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

remember last year?   Went below freezing 12/25 and was largely bitter cold right through the blizzard to break the pattern...1/6

This year seems to be the opposite. So a post NYD storm may break the ice. 

[BxEngine]

If you are discussing a specific model output, please post the model youre looking at with regards to questions of what it shows. Maybe it will help the confusion some seem to have with hyperbole. 

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z NAM looked like it was headed for something decent but it washes out right as it nears the Delmarva.  It’s possible the energy crossing the Great Lakes is causing problems 

[bluewave]

December has been the most challenging month to get a cold departure during the 2010’s winters.

NYC

Year.......Dec...Jan...Feb

09-10....-1.6...-0.1...-2.2

10-11....-4.7...-2.9...+0.7

11-12...+5.8...+4.7..+5.6

12-13...+4.0...+2.5...-1.4

13-14...+1.0...-4.0....-3.7

14-15..+3.0....-2.7.....-11.4

15-16..+13.3..+1.9.....+2.4

16-17...+0.8....+5.4.....+6.3

17-18...-2.5.....-0.9.....+6.7

 

 

[MJO812]

50 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z NAM looked like it was headed for something decent but it washes out right as it nears the Delmarva.  It’s possible the energy crossing the Great Lakes is causing problems 

Check out the 12k Nam and 3k Nam. The low is further south with precip coming into our area for Christmas eve 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The 18Z NAM looked like it was headed for something decent but it washes out right as it nears the Delmarva.  It’s possible the energy crossing the Great Lakes is causing problems 

The energy at the lakes is probably absorbing the energy associated with the low near the Delmarva. 

[NEG NAO]

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2018 - JAN 04, 2019 

TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA 
CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN 
IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE 
FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED 
FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A MEAN TROUGH 
IS PREDICTED FAR THERE TO THE WEST OVER THE BRING SEA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO 
THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. 

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE 
GREAT PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO THE 
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE 
BRING SEA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF 
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO 
CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN 
TERMS OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2

FORECASTER: QIN Z
 

[CIK62]

I don't understand the talk about snow, when we barley get below 32 at any time.    The next 7 days are averaging 43degs., or 8degs. AN, and none of the seven are BN.     The time to talk snow is when the highs are slated  to be near 32 for a few consecutive days.      Nov. was a curse with its surprise 6.4" snow and 15deg. low for the month.       I said it before--- these landmarks could hold for the winter season w/o setting any new records.

[Ericjcrash]

57 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

I don't understand the talk about snow, when we barley get below 32 at any time.    The next 7 days are averaging 43degs., or 8degs. AN, and none of the seven are BN.     The time to talk snow is when the highs are slated  to be near 32 for a few consecutive days.      Nov. was a curse with its surprise 6.4" snow and 15deg. low for the month.       I said it before--- these landmarks could hold for the winter season w/o setting any new records.

While I agree theres no snow other than moodflakes in our near future unless we can get a last minute Christmas miracle, to say you need multiple consecutive days below freezing for snow is rather bizzare. 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 29, 2018 - JAN 04, 2019 

TODAY'S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA 
CIRCULATION PATTERN DURING THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD. A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN 
IS FORECAST WITH RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FAVORED IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE TROUGHING AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE 
FORECAST IN THE CENTRAL CONUS. UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER 
THE WESTERN CONUS WITH ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED 
FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA WHILE A MEAN TROUGH 
IS PREDICTED FAR THERE TO THE WEST OVER THE BRING SEA.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN 
ASSOCIATION WITH RIDGING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE PACIFIC COAST. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE 
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RIDGING. NEAR TO 
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN ALASKA DUE TO 
THE INFLUENCE OF TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND ALASKA. 

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR THE 
GREAT PLAINS EXTENDED TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEAR AND AHEAD OF MEAN TROUGHING. 
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING TO THE 
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE 
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE 
BRING SEA.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS 
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED 
ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF 
TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11 


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO 
CONTINUED GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN 
TERMS OF THE PATTERN EVOLUTION TOWARD THE END OF WEEK-2

FORECASTER: QIN Z
 

A quick point: Neither the 12z GEFS nor the EPS are warmer than normal in the Northeast for the Day 8-14 period (period average). So, the above discussion might be based on some dated information. Normally, the risks aren't great, but when one is approaching a possible pattern change, the latest information can be especially useful. Of course, time will tell what ultimately happens.

[NEG NAO]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A quick point: Neither the 12z GEFS nor the EPS are warmer than normal in the Northeast for the Day 8-14 period (period average). So, the above discussion might be based on some dated information. Normally, the risks aren't great, but when one is approaching a possible pattern change, the latest information can be especially useful. Of course, time will tell what ultimately happens.

it was released at 3 PM so maybe they didn't even review those runs - we will find out when they release their next analysis...….

[donsutherland1]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

it was released at 3 PM so maybe they didn't even review those runs - we will find out when they release their next analysis...….

Could be. Let’s see what tomorrow’s discussion says.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Could be. Let’s see what tomorrow’s discussion says.

But on the weekends they use

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN 
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. 
 

 

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

But on the weekends they use

AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL 
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN 
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED. 
 

 

That’s true. I wasn’t thinking of the weekend. 

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Could be. Let’s see what tomorrow’s discussion says.

Either way Don, I dont see the chances being all that great for wintry weather prior to Jan 1  No need to rush it anyway, we have plenty of time.

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

good point on the Nina-remember last year?   Went below freezing 12/25 and was largely bitter cold right through the blizzard to break the pattern...1/6

actually reminds me of what happened during late Dec 1995 and early Jan 1996 too, although that had much stronger blocking.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 44degs., or 9degs. AN.

Month to date is +0.3[39.3].      Should be +2.4[40.6] by the 30th.

Yesterday was a +18 day as I had  predicted over a week ago.    I said we could be greeting winter with a +20 day.

EURO is 1" in the next 10 days.   The GEFS is 50/50 on at least 4" by Jan. 08.

[bluewave]

NYC is on track for its 7th above normal temperature departure December during the 2010’s winters. Just goes to show what a fluke that -13 last week of December was in 2017.

NYC

2009....-1.6

2010.....-4.7

2011....+5.8

2012....+4.0

2013....+1.0

2014....+3.0

2015....+13.3

2016....+0.8

2017.....-2.5

2018....+0.3...so far

[Brian5671]

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

[the_other_guy]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break.

Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

It’s been 10 days away for a week now. I think we got into a dog chasing its tail situation last year during our 7 week winter break.

Im just happy most of xmas week will be in the 40s. You take the small things...

last year was brutal with the bitter cold-everyone was housebound-looking forward to getting out for some walks/hikes this year although it will be muddy

[gravitylover]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

Well, at least I've had coatings a few times, ground intermittently frozen and temps cold enough to make it feel wintry. Two of those coatings were enough that the town sent plows out on the hilltops. 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, gravitylover said:

Well, at least I've had coatings a few times, ground intermittently frozen and temps cold enough to make it feel wintry. Two of those coatings were enough that the town sent plows out on the hilltops. 

not much here outside of some flurries.   The ground was frozen after the 10 days of cold for sure-now it's a muddy mess here with water everywhere-hoping for some wind and sun later

[Brasiluvsnow]

As far as Xmas the FV3 is very close to some mood flakes for many and both 3k and 12k Nams say we get some white stuff --- https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=ref_frzn&runtime=2018122206&fh=51

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Either way Don, I dont see the chances being all that great for wintry weather prior to Jan 1  No need to rush it anyway, we have plenty of time.

After but NYE still needs to be watched since its on the ensembles and the ops are flopping like fishes.

32 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

December snow shutout incoming.   Pattern looks better in January, but we remain 10 days away still

Everyone is on board for an epic January. 

Don't count out NYE just yet

[Brasiluvsnow]

13 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed 100 % - also blanket statements like the one below should be backed up with some proof also for obvious reasons...…..

 

 

Not to start any trouble = as I am still a novice when it comes to many of you other guys but to quote you NEG " this is the GFS-FV3 -your turn " https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018122206&fh=252

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

agreed 100 % - also blanket statements like the one below should be backed up with some proof also for obvious reasons...…..

 

 

O please

We have all been talking about a snowy pattern in January for a while. I know you only go by what Upton has to say but look at pattern recognition and what's going on with the mjo and ssw.

[donsutherland1]

8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Either way Don, I dont see the chances being all that great for wintry weather prior to Jan 1  No need to rush it anyway, we have plenty of time.

The biggest risks will be after 1/1.