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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Our annual December warm up around the winter solstice is right on track. White Plains just set a new record high of 61 degrees . The previous record high for 12-21 was set back in 2013 at 59 degrees.


White Plains   LGT RAIN  60  59  96 SE29G40   29.52F FOG
Almanac for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY
December 21, 2018
Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest
Max Temperature M 39 59 in 2013 14 in 1955

 

LGA just broke another 2010’s record high set back in 2011. New record of 62 beating the 61 in 2011.

https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1076094806831648768

I saw the record from yesterday was 60 degrees from 2002.

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26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw the record from yesterday was 60 degrees from 2002.

This is the first time that LGA had 10 days in a decade reach 60 or higher from 12-18 to 12-24. LGA also had a high of  63 on Christmas 2014. That was one day outside this range around the winter solstice.

2010’s....10 days so far

2000’s.....4

1990’s.....4

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60 Dec 18 to Dec 24
Missing Count
2018-12-24 1 4
2017-12-24 0 0
2016-12-24 1 0
2015-12-24 3 0
2014-12-24 0 0
2013-12-24 3 0
2012-12-24 1 0
2011-12-24 1 0
2010-12-24 0 0

 

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34 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that LGA had 10 days in a decade reach 60 or higher from 12-18 to 12-24. LGA also had a high of  63 on Christmas 2014. That was one day outside this range around the winter solstice.

2010’s....10 days so far

2000’s.....4

1990’s.....4

Time Series Summary for LA GUARDIA AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Ending Date
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60 Dec 18 to Dec 24
Missing Count
2018-12-24 1 4
2017-12-24 0 0
2016-12-24 1 0
2015-12-24 3 0
2014-12-24 0 0
2013-12-24 3 0
2012-12-24 1 0
2011-12-24 1 0
2010-12-24 0 0

 

Looks like the analogs of 2002 and even moreso 2014 seem to be the best matches so far.

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16 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway.

SSW's do not have a statistically significant correlation to sensible weather in the northeast.  It can get cold in Jan, certainly looks much better after the 5th/6th period and beyond.  But that may be as much a function of the MJO (if not moreso) than the SSW.

 

Think people forget what the SSW gets you (normally) is an increase in likelihood of -AO if there is a true coupling to the troposphere PV.  The -AO itself increases your odds of cold, but does not necessarily guarantee them.  Bigger and more important piece to me right now is what happens in the Pacific vs. what happens over the pole.   Think MJO has overwhelmingly driven the bus on this pattern for the past several weeks.

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Select Record High Temperatures for December 21 as of 9:00 am:

Allentown: 63° (old record: 57°, 1957)
Bridgeport: 60° (tied record set in 1957)
Hartford: 60° *tied record set in 1957)
Islip: 59° (tied record set in 1973)
New York City-LGA: 61° (tied record set in 2011)
Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 61°, 1957)

 

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4 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I'm not sure where some of you are getting the idea of snow on Monday. Please show me one model that brings snowfall, or even flurries to NYC metro on Xmas eve. 

Every model?

It's not even a snowfall. Just flurries and snow showers.

850s are cold

 

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26 minutes ago, David-LI said:

I'm not sure where some of you are getting the idea of snow on Monday. Please show me one model that brings snowfall, or even flurries to NYC metro on Xmas eve. 

Gfs does euro does gfs para icon and ukmet

white rain but if that wave digs more we can get a light snowfall

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I am not sure how to interpret/ read those if anyone cares to give the abridged version I am sure there are many besides myself who would appreciate it,,,otherwise carry on men and women

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

GFS sucks with surface temps

This happens with every storm

When you see 850s this cold, it's snow.

I doubt it accumulates but it will put us in the mood.

The other thing to watch is the GFS/NAM continue to be weaker than the Euro.  The Euro is fairly potent at 500 and the Euro will often tend to run low on QPF on these systems 3-4 days out.  If this spits out .20-.40 in the end it should easily be snow from the Metro northward  

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Select Record High Temperatures for December 21 as of 9:00 am:

Allentown: 63° (old record: 57°, 1957)
Bridgeport: 60° (tied record set in 1957)
Hartford: 60° *tied record set in 1957)
Islip: 59° (tied record set in 1973)
New York City-LGA: 61° (tied record set in 2011)
Poughkeepsie: 62° (old record: 61°, 1957)

 

Even Mount Washington set a new daily record high of 43 degrees so far. The all-time monthly high for December is 47 set in 2001.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMWN.html

21 12:47 S 72 G 84 0.06 Heavy Rain Fog and Windy VV001 43 43 43 33
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39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even Mount Washington set a new daily record high of 43 degrees so far. The all-time monthly high for December is 47 set in 2001.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KMWN.html

21 12:47 S 72 G 84 0.06 Heavy Rain Fog and Windy VV001 43 43 43 33

They've also had over 100 inches of rain this year lol

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I was pointing out what the models showed. Gfs has near 60 for the 27/28 period with some rain/snow showers around the 24th. 

Actually 12z has mid 60s for the 28th.

another cutter around the 28th so more warmth like today.  Definitely wiping out the negative departures of the 1st 10-12 days

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