PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: At least today, the storm around the start of January looks to be colder than the one around the 28th. But I would like to see if it survives the recent colder storm getting pushed back effect first. I think the Primary on the 28th has to cut because it digs into the 4 corners and kicks that ridge up for a day , I just think there`s a real oppo on the backside. I do think there is some front end ice on the 28th in the H/V because of the air mass in front of it has some low level cold air with it. The Canadian ensembles are too cold in the D 10 -15 , the GEFS looks a little too warm , so I took the EPS mid ground for the last 5 days of the month / front 5 at 2m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 18 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: EPS friend -Day 10 - 15 are much colder than this 7 day mean See the EPS day 10 -15 . Agree Pattern gets way better after the possible 27th cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 29 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I think the Primary on the 28th has to cut because it digs into the 4 corners and kicks that ridge up for a day , I just think there`s a real oppo on the backside. I do think there is some front end ice on the 28th in the H/V because of the air mass in front of it has some low level cold air with it. The Canadian ensembles are too cold in the D 10 -15 , the GEFS looks a little too warm , so I took the EPS mid ground for the last 5 days of the month / front 5 at 2m. I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December. We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: I want to wait until one of the reliable models holds something cold within the 120 hr mark. The models have been in full push back mode since they lost the record MA snowstorm for us in early December. I agree-nothing has really moved up in time-looked snowy 12/23-24, then it was the 28th and now we're back to the 1st... - the 28th is now rain to the Canadian border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: We have to wait and see what the SSW does. That is if there is one coming. There's a high chance anyway. A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too. I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too. I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that. Pattern will get here, but models always rush it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: A SSW is pretty much guaranteed at this point, it looks like a pretty strong event too. I don't think we'll see anything of consequence until mid Jan but it's not impossible that we sneak something before that. Don’t sleep on New Years storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Can anyone amplify on the projected well above normal temperatures anticipated by some models. All I have is the 10 day WU forecast, which seems stuck in the low 30s after the solstice rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 0z nam.. just checked it. rain looks less. sorta seems not much of a historical event. anyone else see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 14 minutes ago, Animal said: 0z nam.. just checked it. rain looks less. sorta seems not much of a historical event. anyone else see it? depends on where you are-it has 4-5 inches here-a months worth of rain in 18 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: This is pretty interesting. https://www.axios.com/el-nino-is-developing-in-pacific-ocean-winter-2019-9d878cf0-a7a5-45e5-8459-b041f209e199.html What's pretty cool is the stream near Africa, El Nino has extended to the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 After warm Stratosphere Dec 17 - Jan 3 v After cold Stratosphere Dec 17 - Jan 3 v Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 21 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: depends on where you are-it has 4-5 inches here-a months worth of rain in 18 hrs... Ncep is much different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Worst fog ive ever experienced on the palisades 20 minutes ago. Numerous cars had temporarily given up and parked in the median. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 3 minutes ago, Animal said: Ncep is much different It shifted east a little with the WCB axis, which seems consistent with the current WV loop. It's already an historic storm on the greater meteorological stage in terms of record-breaking PWATs, wind anomalies at multiple pressure levels, etc. I just wouldn't assume that translates to biblical weather in everybody's backyard. The difference between 2.5" and 4" of rain is almost imperceptible anyway, especially if much or most of it falls at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 18 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: It shifted east a little with the WCB axis, which seems consistent with the current WV loop. It's already an historic storm on the greater meteorological stage in terms of record-breaking PWATs, wind anomalies at multiple pressure levels, etc. I just wouldn't assume that translates to biblical weather in everybody's backyard. The difference between 2.5" and 4" of rain is almost imperceptible anyway, especially if much or most of it falls at night. Gfs show near 1.5 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Nice coastal for the area on NYE on the cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 59 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nice coastal for the area on NYE on the cmc Yes 88 its there it also shows a quick hit on the 26th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 The CMC actually has three distinct shortwaves passing overhead between the 23rd and 26th. It would be nice to amplify one of them a touch more for a greater chance of some festive snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 This was the UKMET at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: This was the UKMET at 72 Snowgoose or anyone else is there somewhere for me to view the UKIE on my own or is it only on paid sites ? I don't see it on TTB or on Weather.us,,,thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Snowgoose or anyone else is there somewhere for me to view the UKIE on my own or is it only on paid sites ? I don't see it on TTB or on Weather.us,,,thanks in advance http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 44degs , or 9degs. AN. Month to date is -0.5[38.6]. Should be +2.3[40.2] by the 29th. Yesterday was the last day for BN this month (on a monthly basis). EPS has 1" of Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS has a 70% of at least 4" by Jan. 06. Currently 55, Rain/Fog here, nearing 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 GFS 6z has literally about 4 miller A’s throughout its run. January is going to be a fun month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Rain and 61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 1 hour ago, qg_omega said: Zzzzzzz for the next two weeks A little snow for Christmas( nothing big ) and then we have to watch NYE . Pattern should get more favorable by January. Hang tight weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A little snow for a Christmas and then we have to watch NYE Why do you continually answer this guy?..he wants the attention from the baseless crap he posts. Ignore him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Just now, Rtd208 said: Why do you continually answer this guy?..he wants the attention from the baseless crap he posts. Ignore him! Good question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2018 Share Posted December 21, 2018 Our annual December warm up around the winter solstice is right on track. White Plains just set a new record high of 61 degrees . The previous record high for 12-21 was set back in 2013 at 59 degrees. White Plains LGT RAIN 60 59 96 SE29G40 29.52F FOG Almanac for WESTCHESTER COUNTY AP, NY December 21, 2018 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 39 59 in 2013 14 in 1955 LGA just broke another 2010’s record high set back in 2011. New record of 62 beating the 61 in 2011. https://mobile.twitter.com/iembot_okx/status/1076094806831648768 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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