donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Slow changes getting underway... ter 7 consecutive days during which the SOI was +10.00 or higher, the SOI fell sharply today. Today's figure was +7.68. Yesterday was +21.90. The SOI will likely go negative within a week +/- a few days based on the latest guidance. The MJO remained in Phase 4, but its amplitude fell below 2.000. The MJO will soon be entering Phase 5. Further, its amplitude will decline, but despite some of the guidance suggesting that its amplitude will fall below 1.000 in two weeks or less, the persistence of its high amplitude and past periods of long-duration high amplitudes suggests that such a shift may take longer than two weeks. A low amplitude MJO is probably more likely to develop after the first or second week of January than the beginning of the month. What has not changed is the regular occurrence of high QPF events. Another significant precipitation event will affect the East Thursday (Southeast) and Friday (remainder of the East). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 12z Ukie is a firehose for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 I created a discussion for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Euro has light snow for the 26th with 1-3 inches for the city with more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 35 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has light snow for the 26th with 1-3 inches for the city with more inland. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/snow-depth-in/20181227-0000z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Is the old order decaying and a new one beginning to rise? After 7 consecutive days of the SOI's remaining at or above +10.00 during an El Niño event, the SOI fell sharply from +21.90 yesterday to +7.68 today. January 2019 Forecasts (CFSv2): Blue shading indicates colder than normal temperatures; orange, red, and brown shading indicates warmer than normal temperatures. Note: The CFSv2 is still outside its reasonably skilled range. The important point is that the model is starting to pick up on developments that could favor colder conditions in the eastern United States and parts of Canada. Overall, my thinking about winter 2018-19 remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro has light snow for the 26th with 1-3 inches for the city with more inland. That’s about the best setup for a SWFE you can get here. The energy crashing into the west prevents amplification of the wave and that’s usually how we avoid seeing the snow to rain classic SWFEs or see mostly snow. Any SWFE with ridging in the west typically will track over or to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Next 7 days averaging 47degs. now, or about 11degs. AN. I predicted the 21st. would be a +20 day a week ago, and this is holding up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: That’s about the best setup for a SWFE you can get here. The energy crashing into the west prevents amplification of the wave and that’s usually how we avoid seeing the snow to rain classic SWFEs or see mostly snow. Any SWFE with ridging in the west typically will track over or to our north Models are now starting to show an east based negative nao. The snow might be legit. The gfs is starting to show something now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 The gfs gets frigid after the cutter ( which might be shredded mess by the time we get closer due to the negative nao.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 19, 2018 Share Posted December 19, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>GALE WARNING NY HARBOR AREA This is an important message from NY Alert Issued To: New York Harbor HEADLINE: Gale Warning issued December 19 at 3:26PM EST until December 21 at 6:00PM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a Gale Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM to 6 PM EST Friday. * WINDS...Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. INSTRUCTIONS: A Gale Warning means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 34 to 47 kt are expected or occurring. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>FLOOD WATCH NYC HEADLINE: Flood Watch issued December 19 at 3:21PM EST until December 21 at 5:00AM EST by NWS New York City - Upton DESCRIPTION: ...FLOOD WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... The National Weather Service in Upton has issued a * Flood Watch for portions of southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey, and southeast New York, including the following areas, in southern Connecticut, Northern Fairfield, Northern Middlesex, Northern New Haven, Northern New London, Southern Fairfield, Southern Middlesex, Southern New Haven, and Southern New London. In northeast New Jersey, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic, and Western Union. In southeast New York, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northeastern Suffolk, Northern Nassau, Northern Queens, Northern Westchester, Northwestern Suffolk, Orange, Putnam, Richmond (Staten Island), Rockland, Southeastern Suffolk, Southern Nassau, Southern Queens, Southern Westchester, and Southwestern Suffolk. * From late Thursday night through late Friday night * An area of low pressure moving up the spine of the Appalachians Thursday into Friday will result in a widespread 2 to 3 inch rainfall across the region. The rain could be heavy at times, especially late Thursday night into Friday. * The heavy rain will result in the potential for flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas, as well as minor river flooding on fast responding streams. In addition, flooding concerns could be exacerbated along the coast if the heaviest rain coincided with the Friday morning high tide. INSTRUCTIONS: A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. Issued By: NWS New York City - Upton (Long Island and New York City) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 It's very promising that at the end of the 12z GEFS run, we are seeing it resemble Monday night's Euro weeklies to an extent. Notice how we are seeing higher heights in the Greenland area, which start to extend towards the AO and EPO region as we head into January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Isotherm " The putative "cutter" on the 18z GEFS for the 27th-28th now cannot achieve > 0c 850mb temperatures north of NYC [energy transfer beginning to be detected]. No changes from me - 23rd onward for sufficient cold and possible threats. Models adjusting precisely as anticipated." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'd watch the Poconos and NW NJ for flash flooding on Friday with the upcoming rain. Models are showing an upslope enhancement in those areas due to the very moist southerly flow reaching the hills/mountains and forced upward. That could be where you see 3-4" totals or locally more. Elsewhere, the heavy amounts will depend on how long the LLJ firehose stays overhead for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 00Z NAM at 84 may be headed towards something as far as the 23rd into 24th goes but nothing that looks too exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: I'd watch the Poconos and NW NJ for flash flooding on Friday with the upcoming rain. Models are showing an upslope enhancement in those areas due to the very moist southerly flow reaching the hills/mountains and forced upward. That could be where you see 3-4" totals or locally more. Elsewhere, the heavy amounts will depend on how long the LLJ firehose stays overhead for the most part. Yeah I dont buy the maxima over CT there, based on the storm tracking to our west, I believe the maximum rainfall will be in the mountains just to the west of us, in the Poconos and NW NJ. You dont usually see precip maxima that far east with the storm tracking to your west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 45degs., or 10degs. AN. Month to date is -0.9[38.4]. Should be +2.3[40.4] by the 28th. EPS back to No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 40% on at least 6" by Jan.05. December is being sacrificed to the weather gods. We should get their blessings again promptly with the New Year. If the LR Models are wrong, we can start using them to predict the economy and stock market movements. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Pretty impressive flip from a colder November to a milder December for the US. This was the biggest snow cover drop for this period in over a decade of monitoring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season That always happens as we flip to a warmer pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 The FV3 shows something for Xmas Eve,,,,,its very close along the coast but cold inland,,,,,thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 As long as I can leave Christmas Eve without running into any sloppy weather, you can have all the rain/snow you want. NYD looks good on the FV3. A little suppressed for New England but looks nice for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Icon has a white Christmas. Not particularly a lot of snow but snow flakes flying around...we need more support Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, CarLover014 said: As long as I can leave Christmas Eve without running into any sloppy weather, you can have all the rain/snow you want. NYD looks good on the FV3. A little suppressed for New England but looks nice for here new GFS is fairly dry for xmas eve and then is setting up another storm for the 27th-looks wet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 12 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Icon has a white Christmas. Not particularly a lot of snow but snow flakes flying around...we need more support The models have no clue which system or disturbancr to focus on. The 12Z NAM has nothing. The GFS seemed to be headed in the direction of focusing on the system for the 26th. It at least tried to get something going across the southern Lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Lot of frost this morning. Right up there with the most frost I’ve seen the season Co-worker came in from Suffolk county this morning and got into a multi car accident coming downhill off the Robert Moses Causeway Bridge due to black ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 UKMET at 72 looks like it would be headed for an inland snow coastal rain event on the 24th. Either the American or foreign model camp is going to get smoked on this. They aren’t even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro has a white Christmas. White rain mostly but we could get a few inches north and west. Still good enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Euro showing 3-4+" of precip during next ten days, more stations may be setting yearly records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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