December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[donsutherland1]

In the wake of the most recent storm, below are year-to-date precipitation figures and 2018's rank among the wettest years for various sites:

Allentown: 63.00" (3)
Atlantic City: 64.58" (2)
Binghamton: 54.84" (2)
Boonton (1 SE), NJ: 73.05" (1)
Bridgeport: 56.30" (6)
Cooperstown: 57.16" (3)
Elmira: 55.51" (1)
Hamburg, PA: 73.06" (1)
Harrisburg: 63.66" (2)
Islip: 59.82" (3)
New Brunswick: 62.30" (3)
New York City: 61.38" (6)
Newark: 55.12" (7)
Philadelphia: 57.35" (2)
Port Jervis: 60.96" (3)
Poughkeepsie: 53.40" (7)
Scranton: 59.47" (2)
Shirley, NY: 58.19" (1)
Shrub Oak, NY: 62.70" (2)
Sussex (3 WNW): 64.01" (2)
Upton: 67.72" (1)

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

They are only on a paid site. However, the 500 mb pattern evolves toward the classic EPO-/AO- pattern shown in the chart for my winter thoughts.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51728-winter-outlook-2018-2019/

 

Thanks Sutherland

[forkyfork]

27 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the most recent storm, below are year-to-date precipitation figures and 2018's rank among the wettest years for various sites:

Allentown: 63.00" (3)
Atlantic City: 64.58" (2)
Binghamton: 54.84" (2)
Boonton (1 SE), NJ: 73.05" (1)
Bridgeport: 56.30" (6)
Cooperstown: 57.16" (3)
Elmira: 55.51" (1)
Hamburg, PA: 73.06" (1)
Harrisburg: 63.66" (2)
Islip: 59.82" (3)
New Brunswick: 62.30" (3)
New York City: 61.38" (6)
 Newark: 55.12" (7)
Philadelphia: 57.35" (2)
Port Jervis: 60.96" (3)
Poughkeepsie: 53.40" (7)
Scranton: 59.47" (2)
Shirley, NY: 58.19" (1)
Shrub Oak, NY: 62.70" (2)
Sussex (3 WNW): 64.01" (2)
Upton: 67.72" (1)

great list. how far away is nyc from #1?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

great list. how far away is nyc from #1?

It’s out of reach. The record is 80.56” from 1983.

[forkyfork]

2 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s out of reach. The record is 80.56” from 1983.

i forgot about the 1983 discussion. thx 

[JerseyWx]

48 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In the wake of the most recent storm, below are year-to-date precipitation figures and 2018's rank among the wettest years for various sites:

Allentown: 63.00" (3)
Atlantic City: 64.58" (2)
Binghamton: 54.84" (2)
Boonton (1 SE), NJ: 73.05" (1)
Bridgeport: 56.30" (6)
Cooperstown: 57.16" (3)
Elmira: 55.51" (1)
Hamburg, PA: 73.06" (1)
Harrisburg: 63.66" (2)
Islip: 59.82" (3)
New Brunswick: 62.30" (3)
New York City: 61.38" (6)
Newark: 55.12" (7)
Philadelphia: 57.35" (2)
Port Jervis: 60.96" (3)
Poughkeepsie: 53.40" (7)
Scranton: 59.47" (2)
Shirley, NY: 58.19" (1)
Shrub Oak, NY: 62.70" (2)
Sussex (3 WNW): 64.01" (2)
Upton: 67.72" (1)

Thanks Don.  Boonton, NJ is only several miles south of me.  As you can see, it is essentially the wettest city on your list.  We've had an incredible amount of precip during 2018.

[donsutherland1]

33 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

i forgot about the 1983 discussion. thx 

And in the end, the 1983 record was made official.

[Hailstorm]

 

Just for giggles and entertainment (but unlikely to happen), take a look at this '93 redux fantasy Northeast bomb / blizzard on the recent FV3 model towards New Year's. I'd pay $500 for that to materialize just to see how all those tourists will react in the middle of a fierce snow blitz during the Times Square ball drop.

[Rjay]

14 hours ago, bluewave said:

I posted a few recent papers on the topic last winter. Dr. Amy Butler probably has the best twitter feed on the stratosphere.

 

 

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I started following Amy last week...great strat. stuff.

Big fan

[Rjay]

46 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

And in the end, the 1983 record was made official.

Which is ridiculous

[Rjay]

41 minutes ago, Hailstorm said:

Just for giggles and entertainment (but unlikely to happen), take a look at this '93 redux fantasy Northeast bomb / blizzard on the recent FV3 model towards New Year's. I'd pay $500 for that to materialize just to see how all those tourists will react in the middle of a fierce snow blitz during the Times Square ball drop.

I like our odds this winter of seeing something like that.

 

****What the fv3 was showing not Superstorm 93.  Meant to just quote the image.

 

[doncat]

24 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Which is ridiculous

Couldn't agree more.

[SnowGoose69]

I still expect the Euro to lose the Christmas event.  Northern stream is too dominant and likely will squash anything that tries to get going.  GFS hasnt bit on it one run yet  

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I still expect the Euro to lose the Christmas event.  Northern stream is too dominant and likely will squash anything that tries to get going.  GFS hasnt bit on it one run yet  

Well, that sucks. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Well, that sucks. 

Even if it happened I’m not sure it’s snow anyway.  The Great Lakes low is evident on most of the recent Euro runs and ensembles so the BL would likely torch.  That is a classic just inland snow event where Newark and the Bronx get all snow and JFK is mostly rain 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The latest GFS run has the late week storm running up through the Northern Plains. Then the New Years Storm presumably takes an inland route because of the weak Scandinavian Block and absurd ridging ahead of it from Mississippi on east.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if it happened I’m not sure it’s snow anyway.  The Great Lakes low is evident on most of the recent Euro runs and ensembles so the BL would likely torch.  That is a classic just inland snow event where Newark and the Bronx get all snow and JFK is mostly rain 

Sounds a lot like 2002. Except for the GL low.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing of note this year is that seemingly every big storm or even modestly significant storm at day 5-7 ends up happening.  That’s classic El Niño.  Think how often in La Niña or neutral ENSO winters a good 50% or more of those events end up never panning out  

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing of note this year is that seemingly every big storm or even modestly significant storm at day 5-7 ends up happening.  That’s classic El Niño.  Think how often in La Niña or neutral ENSO winters a good 50% or more of those events end up never panning out  

That's going to be interesting when we get in range for the New Year. 

[Brasiluvsnow]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing of note this year is that seemingly every big storm or even modestly significant storm at day 5-7 ends up happening.  That’s classic El Niño.  Think how often in La Niña or neutral ENSO winters a good 50% or more of those events end up never panning out  

Wow Snow Goose is this true ? Definitely something to watch. BTW The winds are howling out there tonight  my deck chairs are still out and blowing around

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

And in the end, the 1983 record was made official.

How far are LGA, JFK and EWR from #1 from them, Don?  I believe JFK's record is right around 60"?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Wow Snow Goose is this true ? Definitely something to watch. BTW The winds are howling out there tonight  my deck chairs are still out and blowing around

I feel motion sickness from all this wind!

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Even if it happened I’m not sure it’s snow anyway.  The Great Lakes low is evident on most of the recent Euro runs and ensembles so the BL would likely torch.  That is a classic just inland snow event where Newark and the Bronx get all snow and JFK is mostly rain 

thats very rare, if JFK is all rain, then EWR and NYC are usually snow to rain.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

The wind is so powerful due to the backside of the upper-level low next to Maine. Also, the pressure gradient from the high pressures that stretch from Lake Superior to Missouri. That's funneling in a lot of cold air. I wonder if the Lake Effect Machine is cranking up right now? 

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or about 8 degs. AN.

Month to date is  -0.7[38.9].   Should be +2.1[40.2] by the 26th.

GEFS has all 5-Day Travelling Periods AN for the rest of the year.

EPS has a trace of snow over the next 10 days.   GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by Jan.03.

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

How far are LGA, JFK and EWR from #1 from them, Don?  I believe JFK's record is right around 60"?

 

YTD Precipitation and Record:

JFK: 53.08" (59.12", 1983)
LGA: 54.38" (65.34", 2011)
Newark: 55.12" (69.91", 2011)

[MJO812]

8 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

That's going to be interesting when we get in range for the New Year. 

Every model has a storm near NYE lol

[bluewave]

Interesting stats on how impressive this warm up will be and what followed in the past for the rest of the winter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/N565UA/status/1074651605641900032

We're now in the midst of the largest CONUS warm up for this time of year in 56 yrs And, 2nd largest since at least 1950 GWs 51 Minus 50 CONUS TDDs MDA

https://mobile.twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1074675417133604864

This is fascinating, the biggest mid-late Dec warmups (week 51 minus week 50 GWHDDs) are associated with some absolutely epic winters, esp. 1962, 1977, 1978, 2002

 

[MJO812]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/17/polar-vortex-could-unleash-winter-wallop-by-january/

[donsutherland1]

That the weeklies head toward a classic December-February El Niño/EPO-/AO- 500 mb pattern is quite exciting. Below is a chart showing that pattern:

Overall, things still remain on track for a snowy to very snowy winter in the region. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, Boston, Detroit, Harrisburg, Hartford, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, Scranton, and Washington should do well in terms of snowfall once the pattern develops and then potentially locks in.