December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[MJO812]

Pattern looks terrible for the rest of this month

[bluewave]

It looks like our typical 50 degree + warm up around the winter solstice is on track. The only years since 2000 without one were 2010, 2009, and 2000.

 

NYC high temperatures 12-18 to 12-24 since 2000:

2017-12-24	55	0
2016-12-24	58	0
2015-12-24	72	0
2014-12-24	58	0
2013-12-24	71	0
2012-12-24	56	0
2011-12-24	62	0
2010-12-24	40	0
2009-12-24	39	0
2008-12-24	58	0
2007-12-24	61	0
2006-12-24	59	0
2005-12-24	55	0
2004-12-24	59	0
2003-12-24	56	0
2002-12-24	60	0
2001-12-24	58	0
2000-12-24	41	0

[frd]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like our typical 50 degree + warm up around the winter solstice is on track. The only years since 2000 without one were 2010, 2009, and 2000.

@bluewave I was not aware so many December since 2000 were so warm near the solstice. 

I did have a question, do you feel once the forcing shifts out of the Maritime and into better phases we will turn it to colder?

Do you think we ever get real coupling with the atmosphere and the ocean? Your post about this a few days ago was spot on.   

Such as were the cases in other Nino years ( under similiar background states )  

[Toekneeweather]

3 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Pattern looks terrible for the rest of this month

It’s still early but yeah the cutters look horrible for snow lovers. That could change though just no real cold air 

[the_other_guy]

58 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Christmas week passed ?

December passed?

You can be negative and it’s OK. I Agree with you...and you turn.

Something could happen Christmas week.  Doesnt look like it will. Temps look marginal in the 40s. Pattern looks like cutters prevail.

[the_other_guy]

56 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like our typical 50 degree + warm up around the winter solstice is on track. The only years since 2000 without one were 2010, 2009, and 2000.

 

NYC high temperatures 12-18 to 12-24 since 2000:

2017-12-24	55	0
2016-12-24	58	0
2015-12-24	72	0
2014-12-24	58	0
2013-12-24	71	0
2012-12-24	56	0
2011-12-24	62	0
2010-12-24	40	0
2009-12-24	39	0
2008-12-24	58	0
2007-12-24	61	0
2006-12-24	59	0
2005-12-24	55	0
2004-12-24	59	0
2003-12-24	56	0
2002-12-24	60	0
2001-12-24	58	0
2000-12-24	41	0

Man is that scary.

 

I said something last year to that effect...If you told me to bet 50 on Christmas versus 30 I would put money on 50.

 

There has been a spike in warm weather from the 3rd to 4th week in December almost every year in recent memory. 

 

Last year we got lucky many of us saw a white xmas with the start of a cold pattern and a quick 2 inches xmas eve.

[Eduardo]

Outside of a lucky/fluky event, I think it’s time to close the shades until mid January, especially for us coasties.  Pattern seems mostly MJO-driven and that should come back into favorable phases around that time. May take a bit of time to drive the incoming PAC air mass off the continent once the pattern shifts.

Stratwarming might be the wildcard here, but they always seem to yield mixed/not-easily-discernible results for us.

I do think we end up doing well after mid January, which actually fits well with typical Niño climo.  Unless we hit a rout of severe bad luck, I think NYC has a solid chance at seeing 40+” on the winter, most of which will fall in the season’s second half. Many of our recent backloaded Niño winters feature some impressive cold too, so 0 degrees in NYC would not surprise me either.

Muddling through a mild holiday season is no fun, but it seems to be the norm here in the past few decades. But, if that history is any indication, in years with similar ENSO states, the waiting tends to pay off later on.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.66" of rain so far today.

Storm total so far 0.92"

Current temp 40

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

Outside of a lucky/fluky event, I think it’s time to close the shades until mid January, especially for us coasties.  

Hopefully that doesn't turn into mid February

[donsutherland1]

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is the el nino going to remain weak?  Moderate is better for our area but if it remains weak we can safely remove 1997-98 and 2015-16 from that list and also 2006-07 and 2009-10.  We would be left with 2004-05 and 2014-15.  Does 1977-78 not make this list?  That was another weak el nino winter (albeit a second year one) where there was very little snow prior to January.

It’s tough to say. The potential to approach moderate levels still exists.

[doncat]

I can understand the pessimism going forward, but making definitive statements for a month ahead? People should know better. 

[SnoSki14]

28 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Hopefully that doesn't turn into mid February

It wouldn't be the first time that a seasonal forecast busts though it's been a long time since it busted in a negative direction. 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to say. The potential to approach moderate levels still exists.

This Niño didn't peak yet. It's certainly possible.

[EastonSN+]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Models have the MJO stalling in phase 5 which is mild this time of year. The timing of a shift to colder is still uncertain at this point. Last December at this time we were heading for the coldest 8-1 phases. That’s why the last week of December was so cold.

The good news for today is the turn to the COD which was not present before. 

[donsutherland1]

With 0.59" rain today through 1 pm, New York City reached 60.00" annual precipitation for the 8th time on record. The City's records go back to 1869.

year-to-date precipitation totals and 2018's rank among the wettest years through 1 pm include:

Atlantic City: 64.24" (2nd wettest year)
Bridgeport: 55.96" (6th wettest year)
Islip: 59.41" (3rd wettest year)
New York City: 60.54" (8th wettest year)
Newark: 54.43" (8th wettest year)
Philadelphia: 57.10" (2nd wettest year)
Poughkeepsie: 53.13" (7th wettest year)

There is a possibility that 2018 could become Atlantic City's wettest year on record. The wettest year on record for Atlantic City is 1948 when 65.80" precipitation was recorded.

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It’s tough to say. The potential to approach moderate levels still exists.

Very slim imo....if it does, it will be lower end. MEI is very paltry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 8 pm, most of the day's heaviest precipitation has fallen in and around the Baltimore and Washington, DC areas. At the same time, the ongoing storm pushed Wilmington, NC past 100" annual precipitation.

Select totals:

Baltimore: 2.08" storm total; 67.75" annual total (old record: 62.66", 2003)
Washington, DC: 2.09" storm total; 62.87" annual total (old record: 61.33", 1889)
Wilmington, NC: 2.36" storm total; 100.11" annual total (old record: 83.65", 1877)

Annual precipitation totals and the 2018's ranking among the wettest years on record for select sites around the region are:

Atlantic City: 63.22" (3rd)
Bridgeport: 55.72" (6th)
Harrisburg: 62.38" (2nd)
Islip: 58.99" (4th)
New York City: 59.95" (8th)
Newark: 53.65" (9th)
Philadelphia: 56.27" (3rd)
Poughkeepsie: 52.69" (7th)
Upton: 66.61" (1st)

At present, as has been noted widely, including but not limited to the official ENSO discussion put out by CPC, the atmosphere and ocean remain decoupled at present. This raises concern as to whether winter 2018-19 has been derailed.

It's premature to reach such a conclusion. After all, in most cases the ocean-atmosphere coupling occurs either in January or sometimes in February.

Going back to the current situation, since daily SOI figures were made available, there have been only six years that saw one or more days with an SOI of +10.00 or above during a December when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above. Two-thirds of those cases featured a snowy January and/or snowy February in the region.

1997-98: January: 0.5"; February: None
2004-05: January: 15.3"; February: 15.8"
2006-07: January: 2.6"; February: 3.8"
2009-10: January: 2.1"; February: 36.9"
2014-15: January: 16.9"; February: 13.6"
2015-16: January: 27.9"; February: 4.0" (December 2015 mean temperature: 50.8°)

At least for now, taking into consideration ENSO climatology, the above subset of cases, and the Gulf of Alaska SSTAs, the riskier bet is prematurely writing off winter.

Absolutely perfect post.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

In the next several weeks, this is definitely not going to be weak. More like low-end moderate. Very impressive positive anomalies at a depth of 150m at 140*W to 180*W. 

Okay...so we reach low end moderate in several weeks....how much do you feel that will influence the pattern for the balance of winter? It needs to make moderate extremely soon to be relevent...and the MEI reflects that there is an enormous amount of ground to cover.

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay...so we reach low end moderate in several weeks....how much do you feel that will influence the pattern for the balance of winter? It needs to make moderate extremely soon to be relevent...and the MEI reflects that there is an enormous amount of ground to cover.

Can you please explain this concept in layman’s terms?  Thanks in advance 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay...so we reach low end moderate in several weeks....how much do you feel that will influence the pattern for the balance of winter? It needs to make moderate extremely soon to be relevent...and the MEI reflects that there is an enormous amount of ground to cover.

A low end moderate can be a bigger influence to our weather. That will override the MJO phases that have been giving us unfavorable conditions for snowfall. Although I don't think a moderate is likely. It's possible. It's going to be close.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

A low end moderate can be a bigger influence to our weather. That will override the MJO phases that have been giving us unfavorable conditions for snowfall. Although I don't think a moderate is likely. It's possible. It's going to be close.

Yes. I think 1968-1969 is the ceiling for this el nino.

[MJO812]

Nice snow event for xmas on the Euro

Every model has the storm. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Can you please explain this concept in layman’s terms?  Thanks in advance 

Sure. There is a lag between sea surface temperatures and the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere...its not instantaneous. This is why the ONI is measured in tri monthly periods. The MEI attempts to more specifically measure the coupling of the ocean-atmosphere, which is the essence of what we are really interested in, rather than just sst anomalies.

[doncat]

Raining moderately, up to 1.01" since midnight.

[495weatherguy]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure. There is a lag between sea surface temperatures and the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere...its not instantaneous. This is why the ONI is measured in tri monthly periods. The MEI attempts to more specifically measure the coupling of the ocean-atmosphere, which is the essence of what we are really interested in, rather than just sst anomalies.

Thank you!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sure. There is a lag between sea surface temperatures and the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere...its not instantaneous. This is why the ONI is measured in tri monthly periods. The MEI attempts to more specifically measure the coupling of the ocean-atmosphere, which is the essence of what we are really interested in, rather than just sst anomalies.

1968-1969 is a good ENSO analog....boderline weak/moderate peak, but a meager MEI...thus the season played out more like a weak el nino with late developing Miller Bs.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Thank you!

Probably partly why we haven't seen an el nino pattern yet.. still not even technically an el nino per ONI, and MEI is only like .648.

[weathermedic]

8 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice snow event for xmas on the Euro

Every model has the storm. 

Just saw JB mention that on Twitter. Let’s hope for a Christmas miracle

[MJO812]

Isotherm 

 

 

Well, as the proverbial body count on the abyss floor seems to be increasing by the day, I continue to watch as models adjust to the discussed forcing mechanisms in the medium range. The NAO domain signal continues to improve, while concurrently, geopotential heights correct more positive (i.e., less severe troughing) in W North America w/ every new cycle. However, rather than recognize these important medium range corrections which indicate longer range inaccuracies, some choose to focus on the unstable and evolving LR. Even still, the LR model changes are now being detected as the jet retraction relaxes, and more upstream ridging resumes in a mere few days following the zonal/gradient look for 24th-27th. Nothing has changed from my stand-point. Transitional period 21/22nd, sufficiently cold thereafter for potential threat. Periods such as this are quite revealing as to who bases their thought processes principally on model regurgitation, and who does not.

[gravitylover]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Root for a thread the needle SWFE event around Christmas. Sometimes we can pick up snow in an otherwise unfavorable pattern provided the system isn’t too amped up.

February 2018 for example.