December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Nice raging cutter on the Gfs on the 21-22nd.

Much better pattern on the gfs and cmc after

[SnoSki14]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Much better pattern on the gfs and cmc after

It could help us out with the next wave for Xmas/Eve actually. A strong cutter can often reshuffle the pattern.

[SnoSki14]

2 hours ago, CIK62 said:

If CFS has its way, 23 of the next 30 days will be AN.

Sounds pretty reasonable, pattern looks mostly unfavorable until then. All signs point to another short but intense winter. 

We'll probably see 95% of our snowfall between Jan 20 and Feb 20. 

[bluewave]

46 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

I think that my memory may have been skewed-I’m surprised at all of that December snow.  Perhaps most of it melted quickly, in which case they wouldn’t be deemed “memorable”.  Wonder what the December’s of the ‘70’s and ‘80’s had for snow

The 70’s and 80’s weren’t memorable for big December snowstorms. There was a 40 year lull between 12.0”+ December events in NYC. 0 December 6”+ events from 1970 to 1989.

December NYC 12.0”+ snowstorms in NYC since 1947:

2010

2003 

2000

1960

1948

1947

[495weatherguy]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 70’s and 80’s weren’t memorable for big December snowstorms. There was a 40 year lull between 12.0”+ December events in NYC. 0 December 6”+ events from 1970 to 1989.

December NYC 12.0”+ snowstorms in NYC since 1947:

2010

2003 

2000

1960

1948

1947

Thank you for confirming my suspicions.   Most people don’t realize how different winters were back then

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Thank you for confirming my suspicions.   Most people don’t realize how different winters were back then

The only winter from 1970 to 1990 that could run with the snowy 2010’s was 1977-1978. It still remains on my list of favorite winters for snowfall.

[SnowGoose69]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It could help us out with the next wave for Xmas/Eve actually. A strong cutter can often reshuffle the pattern.

It might but right now the tendency is for the next wave to lag just far enough behind it that it might be too warm anyway or cut over or west  

[495weatherguy]

22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only winter from 1970 to 1990 that could run with the snowy 2010’s was 1977-1978. It still remains on my list of favorite winters for snowfall.

That was quite a winter for snow---I remember deeper, longer lasting cold snaps.  I may be incorrect, but I do recall lots of "its too cold to snow"

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

That was quite a winter for snow---I remember deeper, longer lasting cold snaps.  I may be incorrect, but I do recall lots of "its too cold to snow"

1978 was second only to 2011 for the most snow in a little over a month.

35 day snowfall records around our area:

#1....2011....61.6” EWR

#2...1978.....53.0” ISP

[495weatherguy]

Just now, bluewave said:

1978 was second only to 2011 for the most snow in a little over a month.

35 day snowfall records around our area:

#1....2011....61.6” EWR

#2...1978.....53.0” ISP

Amazing.  Twice in 33 years--that's the kind of climate I expect on Long Island

[weathermedic]

Winter weather advisories up for the NW suburbs for Sunday. 

[RU848789]

5 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Winter weather advisories up for the NW suburbs for Sunday. 

18Z GFS-FV3 and NAM both showing major snowfalls (6" or more) for the interior (Poconos, Sussex/Warren/W. Passaic/Hudson Valley) and the Euro/GFS showing several inches.  Very surprised we're not seeing more chatter about this - had a similar scenario for 11/15 - not synoptically, but outcome-wise, with models showing much more snow than the forecasts and the models being correct (although less model consensus this time).  

[donsutherland1]

As of 8 pm, most of the day's heaviest precipitation has fallen in and around the Baltimore and Washington, DC areas. At the same time, the ongoing storm pushed Wilmington, NC past 100" annual precipitation.

Select totals:

Baltimore: 2.08" storm total; 67.75" annual total (old record: 62.66", 2003)
Washington, DC: 2.09" storm total; 62.87" annual total (old record: 61.33", 1889)
Wilmington, NC: 2.36" storm total; 100.11" annual total (old record: 83.65", 1877)

Annual precipitation totals and the 2018's ranking among the wettest years on record for select sites around the region are:

Atlantic City: 63.22" (3rd)
Bridgeport: 55.72" (6th)
Harrisburg: 62.38" (2nd)
Islip: 58.99" (4th)
New York City: 59.95" (8th)
Newark: 53.65" (9th)
Philadelphia: 56.27" (3rd)
Poughkeepsie: 52.69" (7th)
Upton: 66.61" (1st)

At present, as has been noted widely, including but not limited to the official ENSO discussion put out by CPC, the atmosphere and ocean remain decoupled at present. This raises concern as to whether winter 2018-19 has been derailed.

It's premature to reach such a conclusion. After all, in most cases the ocean-atmosphere coupling occurs either in January or sometimes in February.

Going back to the current situation, since daily SOI figures were made available, there have been only six years that saw one or more days with an SOI of +10.00 or above during a December when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above. Two-thirds of those cases featured a snowy January and/or snowy February in the region.

1997-98: January: 0.5"; February: None
2004-05: January: 15.3"; February: 15.8"
2006-07: January: 2.6"; February: 3.8"
2009-10: January: 2.1"; February: 36.9"
2014-15: January: 16.9"; February: 13.6"
2015-16: January: 27.9"; February: 4.0" (December 2015 mean temperature: 50.8°)

At least for now, taking into consideration ENSO climatology, the above subset of cases, and the Gulf of Alaska SSTAs, the riskier bet is prematurely writing off winter.

[Animal]

29 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

18Z GFS-FV3 and NAM both showing major snowfalls (6" or more) for the interior (Poconos, Sussex/Warren/W. Passaic/Hudson Valley) and the Euro/GFS showing several inches.  Very surprised we're not seeing more chatter about this - had a similar scenario for 11/15 - not synoptically, but outcome-wise, with models showing much more snow than the forecasts and the models being correct (although less model consensus this time).  

It will be interesting in my area.

 

[JustinRP37]

People always confuse me with the obsession of only considering annual snowfall. Annual snowfall means nothing to winter sports enthusiasts if the vast majority of the winter is a torch. We have had quite a few winters that if you look at snowfall, you'd conclude wow that was a cold winter. As a tick biologist, the duration with snow cover is actually much more important for ticks than just having a bunch of snow that melts within a week. Snow acts as an insulator and does provide many ecological benefits. One day I'll organize my snow cover data better for online posting.

[allgame830]

Currently 39/32 

[Brasiluvsnow]

I have to chime in and agree that I am very surprised that there is not more talk anywhere about tomorrows storm,,,,its going to be interesting especially N n W

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

I have to chime in and agree that I am very surprised that there is not more talk anywhere about tomorrows storm,,,,its going to be interesting especially N n W

Nothing but light rain for the coast.

[Brasiluvsnow]

8 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Nothing but light rain for the coast.

Agreed but this could be a real problem for those inland

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

26 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

Agreed but this could be a real problem for those inland

Yeah. Light freezing rain and sleet. With power outages.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.15" of rain for the day yesterday.

Storm total so far 0.26"

[Rtd208]

The wind has really picked up here, temp also dropping.

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

Probably not. We just need the SOI to cooperate. Then we are good to go.

I'd wager November's storm will be the biggest through the end of December but not for the entire winter.

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

As of 8 pm, most of the day's heaviest precipitation has fallen in and around the Baltimore and Washington, DC areas. At the same time, the ongoing storm pushed Wilmington, NC past 100" annual precipitation.

Select totals:

Baltimore: 2.08" storm total; 67.75" annual total (old record: 62.66", 2003)
Washington, DC: 2.09" storm total; 62.87" annual total (old record: 61.33", 1889)
Wilmington, NC: 2.36" storm total; 100.11" annual total (old record: 83.65", 1877)

Annual precipitation totals and the 2018's ranking among the wettest years on record for select sites around the region are:

Atlantic City: 63.22" (3rd)
Bridgeport: 55.72" (6th)
Harrisburg: 62.38" (2nd)
Islip: 58.99" (4th)
New York City: 59.95" (8th)
Newark: 53.65" (9th)
Philadelphia: 56.27" (3rd)
Poughkeepsie: 52.69" (7th)
Upton: 66.61" (1st)

At present, as has been noted widely, including but not limited to the official ENSO discussion put out by CPC, the atmosphere and ocean remain decoupled at present. This raises concern as to whether winter 2018-19 has been derailed.

It's premature to reach such a conclusion. After all, in most cases the ocean-atmosphere coupling occurs either in January or sometimes in February.

Going back to the current situation, since daily SOI figures were made available, there have been only six years that saw one or more days with an SOI of +10.00 or above during a December when the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.50°C or above. Two-thirds of those cases featured a snowy January and/or snowy February in the region.

1997-98: January: 0.5"; February: None
2004-05: January: 15.3"; February: 15.8"
2006-07: January: 2.6"; February: 3.8"
2009-10: January: 2.1"; February: 36.9"
2014-15: January: 16.9"; February: 13.6"
2015-16: January: 27.9"; February: 4.0" (December 2015 mean temperature: 50.8°)

At least for now, taking into consideration ENSO climatology, the above subset of cases, and the Gulf of Alaska SSTAs, the riskier bet is prematurely writing off winter.

Don is the el nino going to remain weak?  Moderate is better for our area but if it remains weak we can safely remove 1997-98 and 2015-16 from that list and also 2006-07 and 2009-10.  We would be left with 2004-05 and 2014-15.  Does 1977-78 not make this list?  That was another weak el nino winter (albeit a second year one) where there was very little snow prior to January.

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only winter from 1970 to 1990 that could run with the snowy 2010’s was 1977-1978. It still remains on my list of favorite winters for snowfall.

It's good to remind people that prior to January 1978 we had less than an inch of snow that winter lol.

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

Don is the el nino going to remain weak?  Moderate is better for our area but if it remains weak we can safely remove 1997-98 and 2015-16 from that list and also 2006-07 and 2009-10.  We would be left with 2004-05 and 2014-15.

It's already at a moderate threshold. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

It's already at a moderate threshold. 

We really need to have an el nino thread like we had in 2015-16.  There are people in the main forum and in the NE forum saying it's still weak and going to stay that way.

That still removes 1997-98 and 2015-16 from the list that Don posted though because noway nohow is this ever becoming a "super"

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we really need to have an el nino thread like we had in 2015-16.  There are people in the main forum and in the NE forum saying it's still weak and going to stay that way

In the next several weeks, this is definitely not going to be weak. More like low-end moderate. Very impressive positive anomalies at a depth of 150m at 140*W to 180*W. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said:

In the next several weeks, this is definitely not going to be weak. More like low-end moderate.

Thats better news then.  We can still take out 1997-98 and 2015-16 from the list of 6 Don posted because this will never be a +2.0+ super el nino.  Was 2009-10 high end moderate or strong?  I think 2002-03 was high end moderate.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is  -1.3[38.6].    Should be +1.6[37.2] by the 24th.

EPS No Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS is 40% chance of at least 3" before the year ends.

The GFS itself offers absolutely nothing but a surprise gift that fits under the Christmas Tree or makes it white just before the ball drops on the year.