December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

[donsutherland1]

Down south, very heavy rain has fallen in such cities as Charleston, Tallahassee, and Wilmington. Additional moderate to heavy rain is expected in the Middle Atlantic and Southeastern regions overnight and tomorrow.

Some possible highlights by the end of tonight or tomorrow:

- Elizabeth City, NC: 2018 could become that city's wettest year on record.
- Washington, DC: 2018 could become that city's wettest year on record. As of 9:25 pm, 61.04" precipitation had fallen. The record is 61.33", which was set in 1889.
- Wilmington, NC: 2018 precipitation, which stood at 99.64" as of 9:25 pm, could reach and surpass 100" for the year.

Already, Baltimore, Charleston (WV), Danville, Lynchburg, and Reading are among the cities that have set annual precipitation records.

However, in the northern Middle Atlantic region, most of the precipitation will be held to the south. But Sunday could become rainy across the region. As a result, cities such as Atlantic City, Bridgeport, Islip, New York, and Philadelphia pick up a general 0.50"-1.00" rain. Some locally higher amounts are possible.

Here's where things currently stand and where they would stand under various scenarios:

Sunday night and Monday, the rain could change to accumulating snow across central New York State, with some chance of accumulations reaching into southeast New York State. A swatch of New England could also receive accumulating snow. The 12/15 0z run of the NAM even brings accumulations to Boston where just 0.1" snow has been recorded to date.

In the longer-range, the guidance has become a little less impressed with the development of a negative EPO. Nevertheless, the Pacific SSTAs argue that a negative EPO will likely predominate this winter. There could still be enough cold air around to present the risk of accumulating snowfall in parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions during the last week of December.

[Toekneeweather]

Call me crazy but I still think even nyc gets some snow on the back end. The ccb should be kicking as the low is cranks late Sunday until Monday morning....

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Fixed it for ya

Agree

[MJO812]

Mid to upper 30s for the city on the Nam

 

Very close

 

Let's get this to trend colder

 

Inland areas look good for frozen precip

[NycStormChaser]

The threat of freezing rain is definitely increasing.

 

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.11" of rain for the day.

Current temp 48

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 43degs., or 7degs. AN.

Month to date is -2.2[37.9].    Should be +1.1[39.7] by the 23rd.

EPS is No Snow for the next 10 days.     GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by the 30th.

Temps. for the rest of Dec. barely go below freezing----I think we will be 'skunked' snowise for the month.   Only about 15% of all Decembers since 1869 have a T or 0" monthly total.

I said a week ago that we would be greeting winter with a +20 day.    Looks 'good' for the 21st.  LoL

The trend of shorter but more violent winters will win out again if the LR gets us there by Jan. 18 +/-  a few days.

The wildcard is the effects we will feel from any SSW's.

[MJO812]

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

[tim]

29 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

..even donsutherland1 is wavering a bit in the LR..

 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

It would have been better for this area if it was moderate or stronger.

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.

SOI

15 Dec 2018	1012.11	1005.25	16.29	4.29	0.82
14 Dec 2018	1013.05	1005.15	21.69	3.69	0.72
13 Dec 2018	1012.83	1005.20	20.29	2.95	0.59
12 Dec 2018	1011.75	1005.45	13.39	2.36	0.46
11 Dec 2018	1010.69	1006.20	4.00	1.89	0.37

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

uh oh Ant, you starting to crack? Looks like it’s going to start getting ugly on the boards 

It's already getting ugly for no reason. Xmas week holds promise.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that we have El Niño threashold SST’s combined with such a positive SOI in December. I have been pointing out the lack of coupling between the ocean and atmosphere going back into the mid to late fall. Now the forcing is moving to the La Niña-like MJO Martitime Continent phases. You can see the longer range guidance moving to more a -PNA look later in the month. My guess is that this is related to all the record SST warmth north and east of Australia.

SOI

15 Dec 2018	1012.11	1005.25	16.29	4.29	0.82
14 Dec 2018	1013.05	1005.15	21.69	3.69	0.72
13 Dec 2018	1012.83	1005.20	20.29	2.95	0.59
12 Dec 2018	1011.75	1005.45	13.39	2.36	0.46
11 Dec 2018	1010.69	1006.20	4.00	1.89	0.37

 

That +SOI is tipping the scales a bit. Although the El Niño is already in Moderate territory. So eventually the +SOI will be overwhelmed.

[Dan76]

Will NOV be are biggest storm ?

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Will NOV be are biggest storm ?

Probably not. We just need the SOI to cooperate. Then we are good to go.

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Will NOV be are biggest storm ?

No

[CIK62]

If CFS has its way, 23 of the next 30 days will be AN.

 

JB did a written treatise today and made one 'pat of butter' cover the entire roll.     Like his video salads, it is hard to know what this written 'scrambled eggs' means.    Can't tell if he is introducing escapee clauses to get out of his 3-month promotion of a cold winter.

[MJO812]

Nam has several inches of snow for inland areas. Temps near the coast are also in the mid 30s but rain and sleet.

[495weatherguy]

2 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

I don’t recall December ever being a snowy month, outside of those rare years when a significant storm occurred

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, tim said:

..even donsutherland1 is wavering a bit in the LR..

 

I didn't take Don's comments as wavering at all, and he has not amended his winter forecast for above average snowfall.

[RU848789]

I'm sure this will be plastered all over social media soon.  GFS-FV3 also shows significant snows north of 78 (although not insane snows like the NAM). The NAM has been pretty consistent with a significant inland-of-95 snowfall for awhile, so it can't be totally dismissed. GFS/Euro show moderate/significant snow only north of about 84 and the CMC shows little anywhere.  Looks like largely a miss for NYC metro, but interior sections might get some snow...

 

[Brasiluvsnow]

FV3 I believe and correct me if I am mistaken did well with that sneaky last snow storm,,,lets see what the next few runs bring. Also can anyone tell me when exactly the FV3 is in and out of its wheelhouse ?

[winterwx21]

December did deliver already with the advertised great pattern. We just got unlucky. North Carolina saw a historic snowstorm. It takes a great pattern/setup for something like that to happen in December. We just got very unlucky that the confluence was too strong to let it come up the coast. Maybe the last week of the month will deliver for us.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

I don’t recall December ever being a snowy month, outside of those rare years when a significant storm occurred

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double-digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then.

1	2018	T	17
2	2017	7.7	0
3	2016	3.2	0
4	2015	T	0
5	2014	1.0	0
6	2013	8.6	0
7	2012	0.4	0
8	2011	0.0	0
9	2010	20.1	0
10	2009	12.4	0
11	2008	6.0	0
12	2007	2.9	0
13	2006	0.0	0
14	2005	9.7	0
15	2004	3.0	0
16	2003	19.8	0
17	2002	11.0	0
18	2001	T	0
19	2000	13.4	0

[North and West]

27 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then.

FWIW, if the November storm occurred three weeks later, no one would bat an eye. 

[495weatherguy]

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2000-2010 was an amazing run of double digit December monthly snowfall totals for NYC. Winters have become much more back-loaded since then.

1	2018	T	17
2	2017	7.7	0
3	2016	3.2	0
4	2015	T	0
5	2014	1.0	0
6	2013	8.6	0
7	2012	0.4	0
8	2011	0.0	0
9	2010	20.1	0
10	2009	12.4	0
11	2008	6.0	0
12	2007	2.9	0
13	2006	0.0	0
14	2005	9.7	0
15	2004	3.0	0
16	2003	19.8	0
17	2002	11.0	0
18	2001	T	0
19	2000	13.4	0

I think that my memory may have been skewed-I’m surprised at all of that December snow.  Perhaps most of it melted quickly, in which case they wouldn’t be deemed “memorable”.  Wonder what the December’s of the ‘70’s and ‘80’s had for snow

[doncat]

Currently 47° with drizzle and fog... 0.30" rain so far, looking good for another inch plus thru tomorrow night.

[MJO812]

12z models look better after the 23rd

[Cfa]

4 hours ago, Snow88 said:

Remember when it use to snow in December ?

 

Ehh, not the the first half of December. Mid Jan to mid Feb has always felt like the “meat” of our snow season to me. Even March typically outdoes December in recent years.

You'll get your snow lol.

[SnoSki14]

Nice raging cutter on the Gfs on the 21-22nd.

[Rtd208]

Have picked up 0.15" of rain so far today.

Storm total 0.26"

Current temp 49