NJwx85 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Guys I created a thread for today's snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 29 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Actually have a slight dusting here. Looks like the day goes in as .1 so far. At least December isn’t totally shut out now. Yeah, it's been tough to get a shut out in December since 2000. The only years to go 0.0 were 2006 and 2011. We know how those winters went. Even 2015 squeaked out a T-0.1 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Nam is cutting back on the weekend rain event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 18 hours ago, forkyfork said: i'm wondering if we'll get skunked again Yeah, you can see the NAM cutting back on the northern extent of the heaviest rainfall for the first wave on Saturday. The northern stream continues to be really impressive. Very unusual to see a +20 SOI spike during an El Niño December. 13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Radars look good over Suffolk County...anyone there who can confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Radars look good over Suffolk County...anyone there who can confirm? Just some drizzle in Hauppauge for the last couple hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 36 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Radars look good over Suffolk County...anyone there who can confirm? Only Drizzle/Mist (flurries earlier), no accumulation, ground is barely wet. Radar returns look far more impressive than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Mika Rantanen@mikarantane The December update to @CopernicusECMWF multi-model seasonal forecasts is out. No big changes - the rest of the winter (Jan-Feb-Mar) looks still -NAO/-AO -dominated. The composite is the mean of @ECMWF, @metoffice, @DWD_presse, @meteofrance and @CmccClimate forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, you can see the NAM cutting back on the northern extent of the heaviest rainfall for the first wave on Saturday. The northern stream continues to be really impressive. Very unusual to see a +20 SOI spike during an El Niño December. 13 Dec 2018 1012.83 1005.20 20.29 2.95 0.59 12z 0z 18z is south again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 9 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 18z is south again This might be a dry weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, forkyfork said: 18z is south again Hope that’s not the theme for winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I think we have every reason to believe that the 15F Low T and 6.4" of Snow in November, will hold for the rest of December----but not for the winter season. They could actually hold up and not set any records however for the season, and that is worrisome. With the state of the models and expectation of a lot of snow action eventually, a bigger goof than the November one is of high probability. Like this weekend's rain which could be a 20" mid-winter's storm on one run, then 2", and no Blizzard Warning needed, on another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Nam goes bonkers on Monday Alot of snow and sleet for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam goes bonkers on Monday Alot of snow and sleet for inland areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Nam goes bonkers on Monday Alot of snow and sleet for inland areas. These models are tools but even my pliers and screwdriver are tools but they are reliable ! PS I would take bonkers in a heart beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: This might be a dry weekend I'll be thrilled if it doesn't rain, totally happy. Some warmth after a good cool run and a reload on Monday. Lets go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 hours ago, CIK62 said: I think we have every reason to believe that the 15F Low T and 6.4" of Snow in November, will hold for the rest of December----but not for the winter season. They could actually hold up and not set any records however for the season, and that is worrisome. With the state of the models and expectation of a lot of snow action eventually, a bigger goof than the November one is of high probability. Like this weekend's rain which could be a 20" mid-winter's storm on one run, then 2", and no Blixxard Warning needed, on another. Hmmmm.....elaborate, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Long range guidance may even get more erratic if the PNA heads for neutral or negative territory later in the month. Not sure if this a result of the more Niña-like + SOI spike along with the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Long range guidance may even get more erratic if the PNA heads for neutral or negative territory later in the month. Not sure if this a result of the more Niña-like + SOI spike along with the MJO. It's probably a mis-signal, or a pick of something happen as Stratosphere warming begins (model feedback or something). Look at the PNA region now, Low pressure after low pressure. It's been this way pretty much since July. Subsurface warming around 180W-140W in ENSO correlates to ~Aleutian island negative 500mb at a SD of like +5, ridiculous. That's what's happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: Long range guidance may even get more erratic if the PNA heads for neutral or negative territory later in the month. Not sure if this a result of the more Niña-like + SOI spike along with the MJO. It's very odd indeed. I imagine that the pattern will look more like a Nino as we get into Jan/Feb, the seasonal models certainly show that. But for now it's complicated, I wonder how this month will end up temp/Precip wise and if it'll look more like a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's very odd indeed. I imagine that the pattern will look more like a Nino as we get into Jan/Feb, the seasonal models certainly show that. But for now it's complicated, I wonder how this month will end up temp/Precip wise and if it'll look more like a Nina. The month will end with below normal temp average and above normal precip - the wild card is snowfall as there are signs on a few of the models that the last 10 days of the month could feature frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 57 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It's probably a mis-signal, or a pick of something happen as Stratosphere warming begins (model feedback or something). Look at the PNA region now, Low pressure after low pressure. It's been this way pretty much since July. Subsurface warming around 180W-140W in ENSO correlates to ~Aleutian island negative 500mb at a SD of like +5, ridiculous. That's what's happening now. I’m almost sure we saw similar things in ensembles a couple of weeks preceding last winter’s warming event that seemed to contradict would should occur and sure enough in the end all the ensembles that indicated mild ended up wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Hmmmm.....elaborate, please? Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 3 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. Burning up ? I tend to doubt it...………... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 8 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. Oh. I see. Supression. Also, the Euro Weeklies may continue to be erratic until the elongated PV is nearly finished stretching from Eurasia to Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 31 minutes ago, CIK62 said: BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. That's disappointing, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if all our snows come in a month (Feb this year), that's been the theme lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 45 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. 11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: That's disappointing, at this point it wouldn't surprise me if all our snows come in a month (Feb this year), that's been the theme lately. Why are people even looking at the Weeklies? Last week it was cold, now it shows warmth. It's garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 14 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Why are people even looking at the Weeklies? Last week it was cold, now it shows warmth. It's garbage I don’t look at it past 2 days anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 2 hours ago, NEG NAO said: The month will end with below normal temp average and above normal precip - the wild card is snowfall as there are signs on a few of the models that the last 10 days of the month could feature frozen precip. I don't think that's a certainty yet. This weekend is looking less and less impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 14, 2018 Share Posted December 14, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: Well, the highest low temperature for a whole season is 19, in 2001-02, and we have already beaten that. The least seasonal snowfall is about 2", and we have already beaten that too. Some member mentioned that the NAM kept moving the heavy rain to the south. Now just imagine this was mid-winter. The system is in the meso-scale time frame and still can not finalize its output. BTW: The EURO WEEKLIES, just out today, show no weekly cold till Jan. 18. It does not look impressive even then, as North America appears to be burning up for the whole 6 weeks, except the last two along the EC. That’s not what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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