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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 

12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39

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It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

I think the very active northern stream is part of the reason the long range EPS has been doing so poorly. Some of the biggest Euro busts involved a strong northern stream disturbance interaction like 1-27-15.

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

Although this is good. When the transition happens, both streams will be fairly active and provide the coastal storm activity that we desire.  

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 

12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39

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i'm wondering if we'll get skunked again

gfs_z500trend_us_6.png

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Mt. Holly from earlier:

Light snow will develop across northern zones as the morning
progresses, and becomes steadier and more persistent across the southern Poconos and far NW NJ by this afternoon. Liquid QPF amounts will be fairly low, generally between 1/10-2/10 inch, and this should yield about an inch of snow, generally along and north of I-80. In some of the higher elevations, however, up to 2 inches of snow will fall, and still cannot rule out an
isolated 3 inch report.

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Talk about overkill...

From NYC Sanitation: The New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) has issued a Snow Alert as of Thursday, December 13th, 2018 at 0600 hours. A trace amount of snow is expected.

From NYC OEM: The New York City Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has been partially activated as of 0600 hours in support of this morning's expected snow.

From NWS NYC Office: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 11am, then rain after 11am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Current (8am) conditions: Central Park CLOUDY 35 21 56

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Just now, IrishRob17 said:

Which is a waste in more ways than one. More salt is not better, there’s a sweet spot on the application rates and too much makes it much less effective. 

When they salt the roads hours before any precipitation falls, the salt gets ground into a powder from vehicles driving over it and then gets blown to the sides of the roadway as cars drive by. The actual roadway surface the traveling vehicles tires make contact with is virtually salt free at that point lol.

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23 minutes ago, weathermedic said:

Talk about overkill...

From NYC Sanitation: The New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) has issued a Snow Alert as of Thursday, December 13th, 2018 at 0600 hours. A trace amount of snow is expected.

From NYC OEM: The New York City Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has been partially activated as of 0600 hours in support of this morning's expected snow.

From NWS NYC Office: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 11am, then rain after 11am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. 

Current (8am) conditions: Central Park CLOUDY 35 21 56

Even more ridiculous:

 

NYCEmergencyManagement1.JPG

NYCEmergencyManagement2.JPG

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