bluewave Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, North and West said: What's RRWT? Recurring Rossby Wave Train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in. 2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off. December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I think everyone sees some snow tomorrow with the low dew points but it's not going to accumulate. It’s definitely going to accumulate especially on grassy areas and areas to our north. the ground is cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in. 2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off. December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals. I think the very active northern stream is part of the reason the long range EPS has been doing so poorly. Some of the biggest Euro busts involved a strong northern stream disturbance interaction like 1-27-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in. 2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off. December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals. Although this is good. When the transition happens, both streams will be fairly active and provide the coastal storm activity that we desire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 there have been winters that were similar but had different enso...1999-00 had sensible weather like 1965-66...1995-96 had sensible weather similar to 1963-64... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Maybe a sneaky event on Monday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 22 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Maybe a sneaky event on Monday ? it is still there and it still looks cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 6 hours ago, bluewave said: You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39 i'm wondering if we'll get skunked again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 I’m kinda excited for what the models will show for Monday’s sneaky event. It may be nothing but it may look more suppressed in the future runs which would make it a colder solution. Edit: Honestly we should be more excited for what the runs show for tomorrow morning too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 3 hours ago, bluewave said: You can really see the northern edge drying out over the last several runs. So it wouldn't be a big surprise if suppression wins out to some degree again on Saturday. The nam is really crushing the northern extent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 4degs. AN. Month to date is -3.1[37.3]. Should be Near Normal [38.8] by the 21st. EPS still no Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS is 50/50 on at least 3" by the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Graupel (light) falling by jfk airport. Sanitation salt trucks spreading salt on the major roadways still trying to compensate from the November debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Looks like only the 5th time since 1970 that Newark had 20 lows of 32 or lower by December 13th. 2018....20 2013....20 1995....26 1989....22 1976....30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 jesus you would think we are getting 50” of snow. Yonkers has 10” of salt on the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Mt. Holly from earlier: Light snow will develop across northern zones as the morning progresses, and becomes steadier and more persistent across the southern Poconos and far NW NJ by this afternoon. Liquid QPF amounts will be fairly low, generally between 1/10-2/10 inch, and this should yield about an inch of snow, generally along and north of I-80. In some of the higher elevations, however, up to 2 inches of snow will fall, and still cannot rule out an isolated 3 inch report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Light snow in westchester this morning. Is this the long awaited December snow storm I keep reading about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: jesus you would think we are getting 50” of snow. Yonkers has 10” of salt on the road. Which is a waste in more ways than one. More salt is not better, there’s a sweet spot on the application rates and too much makes it much less effective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Talk about overkill... From NYC Sanitation: The New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) has issued a Snow Alert as of Thursday, December 13th, 2018 at 0600 hours. A trace amount of snow is expected. From NYC OEM: The New York City Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has been partially activated as of 0600 hours in support of this morning's expected snow. From NWS NYC Office: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 11am, then rain after 11am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Current (8am) conditions: Central Park CLOUDY 35 21 56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Just now, IrishRob17 said: Which is a waste in more ways than one. More salt is not better, there’s a sweet spot on the application rates and too much makes it much less effective. When they salt the roads hours before any precipitation falls, the salt gets ground into a powder from vehicles driving over it and then gets blown to the sides of the roadway as cars drive by. The actual roadway surface the traveling vehicles tires make contact with is virtually salt free at that point lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 There are some snow flurries in southern Westchester County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Light snow flurries in midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Flurries in Mountainside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 23 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Talk about overkill... From NYC Sanitation: The New York City Department of Sanitation (DSNY) has issued a Snow Alert as of Thursday, December 13th, 2018 at 0600 hours. A trace amount of snow is expected. From NYC OEM: The New York City Emergency Operations Center (EOC) has been partially activated as of 0600 hours in support of this morning's expected snow. From NWS NYC Office: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 11am, then rain after 11am. High near 39. Wind chill values between 25 and 35. East wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Current (8am) conditions: Central Park CLOUDY 35 21 56 Even more ridiculous: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Flurries have been falling here in Bergen County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Occasional flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 Light snow/flurries have begun in wantagh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Light snow/flurries have begun in wantagh. Light snow here in SW Suffolk with a dusting on the colder surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 13, 2018 Share Posted December 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Light snow here in SW Suffolk with a dusting on the colder surfaces. Actually have a slight dusting here. Looks like the day goes in as .1 so far. At least December isn’t totally shut out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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