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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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3 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I lived right on the water most of my life, wind direction is what it comes down to.  A costal front and water temperature are two different things.  Water in the 50s is not an issue with the correct wind

Yes and warm water temps will most times fuel the system offshore making it stronger.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was one of my 3 most memorable Christmas days for extreme weather. Heavy thunderstorm late in the morning transitioning to heavy snow around 5pm. The subzero Arctic outbreak in 1980 was another. Record warmth in 2015 rounds out the list. About the only events we haven't had yet are a winter severe outbreak and a major ice storm

1973 missed by a week of having an icy Christmas...Christmas 1964 will always stand out with the 60 degree temperatures after five straight White Christmas's...69 degrees at Newark...there was snow on the 20th that melted in the fog Christmas eve...in 1979 NYC set the warmest minimum for Christmas...1980 set the coldest minimum...1982 set the warmest max...1983 set the coldest max...

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12 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's good for the ski resorts since they won't be getting the big WAA event that the models were showing last week.

They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck...

4 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Ice is >3" thick on the ponds and lakes here as of this evening, so walkable for my body weight, albeit with giving inflow and outflow areas a wide berth. A really nice surface too... shame about the looming cutter.

That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. 

I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now.

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2 hours ago, Toekneeweather said:

Yes and warm water temps will most times fuel the system offshore making it stronger.

There’s allot more to it then that tony, I was referring to near shore water temps. It’s the offshore water temps and more specifically the Gulf Stream this feed our nor’easters. The Gulf Stream has been running hot as it’s source region has above normal water temps. That’s where you get the fuel. 

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14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Most of the El Niño Decembers suck.  2002 and 2009 were both close to being fairly meh months snow wise but we got two huge breaks late which allowed the 12/25 and 12/19 events to happen.  A 50 mile wide CCB hit the metro and a massive blocking PV in canada split allowing the storm to come north  

in 2002 didnt we have a nice snowstorm around Dec 5 also?

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Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN.

EPS still has No Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS stays with a 50/50 chance of at least 3" through the 27th.

Month to date is -3.3[37.4], and should be near Normal by the 20th.

The RRWT looks scary cold starting soon and continuing all Jan., execpt for 'winter thaw time' near the 21st.    Off the scale cold for at least some of the month of Jan., over a large area is showing up.

On Your Mark, Get Set,   L e t ' s    F r e e z e!

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So far NYC has the lowest December monthly maximum temperature of the 2010's. These storms running near and to our south are preventing a warmer surge. 

2018....56....so far

2017....61

2016...60

2015...72

2014...64

2013...71

2012...62

2011...62

2010...60

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3 hours ago, CIK62 said:

Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN.

EPS still has No Snow for the next 10 days.   GEFS stays with a 50/50 chance of at least 3" through the 27th.

Month to date is -3.3[37.4], and should be near Normal by the 20th.

The RRWT looks scary cold starting soon and continuing all Jan., execpt for 'winter thaw time' near the 21st.    Off the scale cold for at least some of the month of Jan., over a large area is showing up.

On Your Mark, Get Set,   L e t ' s    F r e e z e!

What's RRWT?

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11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck...

That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. 

I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now.

Holes were drilled in my lake late yesterday afternoon. Just under 3.5" of clear hard ice. Teenagers were playing hockey on it Sunday. Too thin for my liking. I won't ice fish till its 6-8"

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11 hours ago, gravitylover said:

They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck...

That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. 

I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now.

Hopefully you're right. FDDs will definitely take a hit for the foreseeable future though.

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