Toekneeweather Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, qg_omega said: I lived right on the water most of my life, wind direction is what it comes down to. A costal front and water temperature are two different things. Water in the 50s is not an issue with the correct wind Yes and warm water temps will most times fuel the system offshore making it stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Miller b on the gfs for next Tuesday well I'll be a monkeys Uncle because it appears COLD as well. I was not looking at the models as all this talk of a warm up bummed me out good catch 88 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 8 hours ago, Snow88 said: Storm signal continues near Xmas I'm surprised the ensembles were not posted today. GEFS and GEPS look great, at least for cold, on/after 12/21. A little bit of a WAR setting up offshore which can amplify storms closer to the East Coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: That was one of my 3 most memorable Christmas days for extreme weather. Heavy thunderstorm late in the morning transitioning to heavy snow around 5pm. The subzero Arctic outbreak in 1980 was another. Record warmth in 2015 rounds out the list. About the only events we haven't had yet are a winter severe outbreak and a major ice storm 1973 missed by a week of having an icy Christmas...Christmas 1964 will always stand out with the 60 degree temperatures after five straight White Christmas's...69 degrees at Newark...there was snow on the 20th that melted in the fog Christmas eve...in 1979 NYC set the warmest minimum for Christmas...1980 set the coldest minimum...1982 set the warmest max...1983 set the coldest max... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 I like where the guidance appears headed and continue to think that the last week in December offers an opportunity for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 23 hours ago, ALEXA said: weeklies? Flopping around like a fish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Flopping around like a fish Agreed. They have been very erratic lately and I instead would defer to the Euro seasonal monthlies which tend to be less volatile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 12 hours ago, bluewave said: It's good for the ski resorts since they won't be getting the big WAA event that the models were showing last week. They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck... 4 hours ago, Juliancolton said: Ice is >3" thick on the ponds and lakes here as of this evening, so walkable for my body weight, albeit with giving inflow and outflow areas a wide berth. A really nice surface too... shame about the looming cutter. That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Toekneeweather said: Yes and warm water temps will most times fuel the system offshore making it stronger. There’s allot more to it then that tony, I was referring to near shore water temps. It’s the offshore water temps and more specifically the Gulf Stream this feed our nor’easters. The Gulf Stream has been running hot as it’s source region has above normal water temps. That’s where you get the fuel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 17 hours ago, purduewx80 said: happens all the time in short-term and long-term forecasting. it reminds me of when long range modeling picks up on a big storm, loses it in the midrange and picks it back up again within 48-72 hours before the event lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 16 hours ago, uncle W said: although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning... it would have been perfect had that storm occurred 12 hours before and we had heavy snow during the day on christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 14 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Most of the El Niño Decembers suck. 2002 and 2009 were both close to being fairly meh months snow wise but we got two huge breaks late which allowed the 12/25 and 12/19 events to happen. A 50 mile wide CCB hit the metro and a massive blocking PV in canada split allowing the storm to come north in 2002 didnt we have a nice snowstorm around Dec 5 also? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN. EPS still has No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS stays with a 50/50 chance of at least 3" through the 27th. Month to date is -3.3[37.4], and should be near Normal by the 20th. The RRWT looks scary cold starting soon and continuing all Jan., execpt for 'winter thaw time' near the 21st. Off the scale cold for at least some of the month of Jan., over a large area is showing up. On Your Mark, Get Set, L e t ' s F r e e z e! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 We might get some heavy snow showers tomorrow that could drop a quick inch or two. The ground is cold so it should accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 So far NYC has the lowest December monthly maximum temperature of the 2010's. These storms running near and to our south are preventing a warmer surge. 2018....56....so far 2017....61 2016...60 2015...72 2014...64 2013...71 2012...62 2011...62 2010...60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 42degs., or about 5degs. AN. EPS still has No Snow for the next 10 days. GEFS stays with a 50/50 chance of at least 3" through the 27th. Month to date is -3.3[37.4], and should be near Normal by the 20th. The RRWT looks scary cold starting soon and continuing all Jan., execpt for 'winter thaw time' near the 21st. Off the scale cold for at least some of the month of Jan., over a large area is showing up. On Your Mark, Get Set, L e t ' s F r e e z e! What's RRWT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 6 minutes ago, North and West said: What's RRWT? You can find those forecasts here: http://www.consonantchaos.com/f-all.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 November 15 to possibly December 27th with no big snows? I'll take it Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, tek1972 said: November 15 to possibly December 27th with no big snows? I'll take it Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Not so fast sir, end of December could be a doozy for our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tek1972 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 That's fine.. Big snows are ok especially when they are 40 days apart Not so fast sir, end of December could be a doozy for our area!Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 15 minutes ago, Toekneeweather said: Not so fast sir, end of December could be a doozy for our area! I'll take it if it's Christmas Eve through New Year's for the ambiance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck... That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now. Holes were drilled in my lake late yesterday afternoon. Just under 3.5" of clear hard ice. Teenagers were playing hockey on it Sunday. Too thin for my liking. I won't ice fish till its 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Models have gotten wetter but also warmer for tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said: Models have gotten wetter but also warmer for tomorrow Good chance at 2-3" of snowfall North and West of the city, especially as you get into upper Bergen County and points Westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Meanwhile the gfs and Euro completely diverge this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Meanwhile the gfs and Euro completely diverge this weekend Can you elaborate please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 Just now, 495weatherguy said: Can you elaborate please? The gfs has 2 to 2.5" lasting right through Sunday. The Euro is dry beyond Saturday midday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: The gfs has 2 to 2.5" lasting right through Sunday. The Euro is dry beyond Saturday midday Thank you. Quite a difference there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 11 hours ago, gravitylover said: They could use a few days at or above freezing, the snowpack needs to consolidate a bit. An all out WAA assault would suck... That thick already? Wow. I've got ice on the ponds here but nothing like that. They are super smooooth though as it froze up on windless nights. I have a feeling the warmth might not be significant enough to melt out a 3" (and thickening) ice cover, you'll probably be good to go for the season now. Hopefully you're right. FDDs will definitely take a hit for the foreseeable future though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said: Models have gotten wetter but also warmer for tomorrow I think everyone sees some snow tomorrow with the low dew points but it's not going to accumulate near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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