tim Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 ..KFOK @ 13* i'm @ 19*.. another cold morning with temps in the teens..ice on the ponds are there but obviously not thick enough..even the creeks of moriches bay have ice..kinda early and unfortunately won't last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 The UKMET has the best snow shower potential of the models with the disturbance on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: This was actually the coldest first 10 days of December in NYC since 2010. Just goes to show the persistence of the colder pattern which began in mid-October. The average temperature from 10-15 to 12-10 was the coldest since 2002 in NYC. Dec 1-10 NYC average temperature 2018....37.6 2017....43.0 2016....41.4 2015....48.3 2014....40.2 2013....41.9 2012....46.0 2011....46.7 2010....34.6 Coldest 10-15 to 12-10 in NYC since 2000: #1....44.2....2002 #2....45.0....2018 #3....46.0....2000 It does remind me of 2010 in that we missed out on a few storm threats and then got clocked towards the end of the month, looks like the pattern will become favorable again in that time period. Interesting to see both 2000 and 2010 in your list of years, as they both had end of the month snowstorms and were both la ninas lol. So maybe this has more to do with the type of blocking we have than it does enso. Dec 2002 which had the same enso type, but much stronger than this, did not have the blockbuster storm at the end of the month, but we still had a Christmas day into night surprise snow event that peaked over Nassau County after changing over from rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 53 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: It does remind me of 2010 in that we missed out on a few storm threats and then got clocked towards the end of the month, looks like the pattern will become favorable again in that time period. Interesting to see both 2000 and 2010 in your list of years, as they both had end of the month snowstorms and were both la ninas lol. So maybe this has more to do with the type of blocking we have than it does enso. Dec 2002 which had the same enso type, but much stronger than this, did not have the blockbuster storm at the end of the month, but we still had a Christmas day into night surprise snow event that peaked over Nassau County after changing over from rain. It's interesting that both 2018 and 2002 are in the small group of years that produced a 6" snow in NYC by December 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 36 minutes ago, bluewave said: The UKMET has the best snow squall potential of the models for Thursday. We also have to watch a possible clipper system for Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We also have to watch a possible clipper system for Monday. It's a bit of a departure for us to have storms that track further south than the 6-10 day forecast. While the weekend storm is rain, it won't be the big cutter that the models were depicting last week. The low may slip underneath instead of tracking to our NW. This could be related to the +SOI type of split flow pattern. This allows a stronger northern stream and the NINO STJ is weaker. Very unusual to have a +SOI weak El Nino continuing into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 10 hours ago, sferic said: Got it ! Thanks so much ! Just FYI the snow maps are waaayy off for the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's a bit of a departure for us to have storms that track further south than the 6-10 day forecast. While the weekend storm is rain, it won't be the big cutter that the models were depicting last week. The low may slip underneath instead of tracking to our NW. This could be related to the +SOI type of split flow pattern. This allows a stronger northern stream and the NINO STJ is weaker. Very unusual to have a +SOI weak El Nino continuing into December. At this point I'll be very happy if it warms up a bit (going through heating oil faster than I'd like for the time of year) but won't mind if the heaviest rain stays somewhere else. We don't need a wet cutter, slipping underneath and pushing some warm air up ahead of it will be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, gravitylover said: At this point I'll be very happy if it warms up a bit (going through heating oil faster than I'd like for the time of year) but won't mind if the heaviest rain stays somewhere else. We don't need a wet cutter, slipping underneath and pushing some warm air up ahead of it will be great. It's good for the ski resorts since they won't be getting the big WAA event that the models were showing last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: This was actually the coldest first 10 days of December in NYC since 2010. Just goes to show the persistence of the colder pattern which began in mid-October. The average temperature from 10-15 to 12-10 was the coldest since 2002 in NYC. Dec 1-10 NYC average temperature 2018....37.6 2017....43.0 2016....41.4 2015....48.3 2014....40.2 2013....41.9 2012....46.0 2011....46.7 2010....34.6 Coldest 10-15 to 12-10 in NYC since 2000: #1....44.2....2002 #2....45.0....2018 #3....46.0....2000 One good thing is the we are knocking down water temps. This should help coastal areas moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: One good thing is the we are knocking down water temps. This should help coastal areas moving forward. I was just thinking that....my first bench mark is for water temps to get below 50 before the start of December, which has already happened, now I'd like them to be below 40 by the end of December ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 31 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: I was just thinking that....my first bench mark is for water temps to get below 50 before the start of December, which has already happened, now I'd like them to be below 40 by the end of December ;-) Once we get into the 30s it’s really game time for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Once we get into the 30s it’s really game time for the coast. we had 6 inches of snow with water temps in the 50's in november... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 A little snow possible Thursday but nothing significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 You know what's funny Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great . Maybe the original forecasts were right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You know what's funny Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great . Maybe the original forecasts were right happens all the time in short-term and long-term forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 45 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You know what's funny Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great . Maybe the original forecasts were right Yeah, I've been chuckling at that over the past few weeks too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: we had 6 inches of snow with water temps in the 50's in november... Not sure your point here. That was one event with extreme circumstances. I’m talking more marginal events where we would change to rain with 50s water temps. Great example, December 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 12 hours ago, Snow88 said: Forecast for NYC was not even an inch of snow after the changeover The changeover on Christmas day started earlier and I received 5 inches of wind driven snow. I remember my family couldn't believe it. I quickly put up TWC and Paul Kocin was talking about the storm although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Storm signal continues near Xmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Ukie shows a light snowfall for Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: You know what's funny Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great . Maybe the original forecasts were right Most of the El Niño Decembers suck. 2002 and 2009 were both close to being fairly meh months snow wise but we got two huge breaks late which allowed the 12/25 and 12/19 events to happen. A 50 mile wide CCB hit the metro and a massive blocking PV in canada split allowing the storm to come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Once we get into the 30s it’s really game time for the coast. Water temperatures are almost irrelevant for most coastal storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: You know what's funny Majority of the winter forecasts back in October had this month being a snoozer for the northeast. A lot of them changed their forecasts in November and thought this month was going to be great . Maybe the original forecasts were right It's been a historic December, the storm just hit NC and VA instead of the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 For a small amount of the population. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Ice is >3" thick on the ponds and lakes here as of this evening, so walkable for my body weight, albeit with giving inflow and outflow areas a wide berth. A really nice surface too... shame about the looming cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 Miller b on the gfs for next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 6 hours ago, uncle W said: although that storm did produce in the end it was depressing to see it raining hard Christmas morning... That was one of my 3 most memorable Christmas days for extreme weather. Heavy thunderstorm late in the morning transitioning to heavy snow around 5pm. The subzero Arctic outbreak in 1980 was another. Record warmth in 2015 rounds out the list. About the only events we haven't had yet are a winter severe outbreak and a major ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2018 Share Posted December 11, 2018 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Water temperatures are almost irrelevant for most coastal storms That’s so incredibly untrue. Water temp plays a big role in early season events. December 05 and October 11 are great examples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That’s so incredibly untrue. Water temp plays a big role in early season events. December 05 and October 11 are great examples I lived right on the water most of my life, wind direction is what it comes down to. A costal front and water temperature are two different things. Water in the 50s is not an issue with the correct wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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