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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather

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The stone age of weather forecasting for me was the 7 day forecast on the weather channel. If the models were showing a storm they'd just hint at it until a couple days out. Even once I started looking online for weather info in the mid 00's, the maps that were available then were those low res QPF maps that showed the blue 0 degree 850 line, which was used as a proxy for ground temps. The clown maps were horrible back then as well, the GFS in particular had one with completely random colors.

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On 12/5/2018 at 1:34 PM, bluewave said:

12z Euro continuing with one of the strongest early December CAD events for the interior SE/MA with the storm system Sat-Tue. Just goes to show what can happen with a near record breaking 200kt  jet forced south across our area.

New record for OKX if the 200kt jet streak  verifies this strong.

250mb winds came in at 193KT on the 00Z sounding, 1KT shy of the record. There were some 198KT obs just below 250.

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13 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

It was so frustrating too because this was before internet and weather channel so I had no idea what went wrong just that it was snowing one minute then pouring rain, and I kept hoping it would change back but never did. I believe the low formed closer to the coast and caused the winds to turn to the E/SE instead of from the NE but I also have no idea who got snow and didn't. I do remember visiting family for Christmas down by philly and they had several inches of snow on the ground

There was basically just the radio if you wanted constant weather updates, so thats what I used.  I used to listen to both WCBS and WINS and sometimes WWOR.  There was a Long Island radio station with Joe Cioffi on it and he sometimes was on WWOR and he's really good- still comes on WPIX sometimes.

The only other thing I know of back then that was devoted to weather were the 15 min segments of AM Weather that were on PBS.

 

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8 hours ago, North and West said:

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


.

haha I got the NOAA weather radio around the same time, it was part of a multiband radio that also had the conventional AM/FM stuff.  I still have that in a closet somewhere, yours was a few years older than mine, which is from 1995.  A great time to get it because the first time I got to use my weather radio was the great winter of 1995-96!

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Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or about 3degs. AN.

Looks like the first half of Dec. will end up a little AN with this 8 day performance.   The month to date is  -2.4[38.8].

GEFS is 50/50 on at least 2" by the 25th.   EPS is completing 5 or 6 days of showing no snow for the next 10 days.

The 5 weeks beginning next weekend look ugly warm on the CFS.

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

My best guess right now would be around the 23rd. This warm up right before the holidays seems to have become the norm over the years. Notice how NYC has reached 50 degrees or higher every year since 2011 from Dec 17-23. The only recent years this didn't happen were in 2009 and 2010 with the record breaking -AO pattern.

NYC high temperature Dec 17-23 since 2009:

2017....55

2016....58

2015....64

2014....54

2013....71

2012....56

2011....62

2010....38

2009....36

that would definitely fit the pattern and we would have two cutters to bookend it, the first cutter on the 15th to introduce the thaw and the second one around the 21st to end it.

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

My best guess right now would be around the 23rd. This warm up right before the holidays seems to have become the norm over the years. Notice how NYC has reached 50 degrees or higher every year since 2011 from Dec 17-23. The only recent years this didn't happen were in 2009 and 2010 with the record breaking -AO pattern.

NYC high temperature Dec 17-23 since 2009:

2017....55

2016....58

2015....64

2014....54

2013....71

2012....56

2011....62

2010....38

2009....36

Wow...2013 was WILD.

I think the 23rd is exactly right, and that we see temps rise to 2014 levels for a day or 2. Nothing crazy. 

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17 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Raleigh reported 6.75

That's what makes this case of suppression so unusual. The last time Raleigh had a 6"+ event in December was the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. As we know, record amounts came right up along the coast through our area.

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59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That's what makes this case of suppression so unusual. The last time Raleigh had a 6"+ event in December was the Boxing Day Blizzard in 2010. As we know, record amounts came right up along the coast through our area.

Hopefully the next storm is less suppressed. Also hopefully before January to avoid a December shut out.

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47 minutes ago, doncat said:

The coming week will continue the cold pattern which set in last Wed...To bad we couldn't cash in with any snow.

It's interesting that the other top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC had a bit of a snow lull from December 1-15. While we are in a completely different era now, sometimes there are parts of these old analogs that can rhyme.

Top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC

#1....1898...19.0.....Dec 1-15....0.5...season....55.9

#2....1882...14.0......................0.0........44.0

#3....1938...12.0......................0.0....37.3

#4....2018....6.4...................... 0.0 so far

#5...1892.....6.3.......................1.5....44.7

#6...1896.....5.0.......................0.0.....43.6

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On 12/8/2018 at 4:35 PM, North and West said:

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


.

Actually in the real world most millenials are more like you, and yes they eat canned tuna. My son is the last year of the millenials, 1997, and he opened two cans this week, the costco ones that actually have enough for a sandwich. I told him lay off the tuna, mercury and all. Once in awhile, that's it.

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's interesting that the other top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC had a bit of a snow lull from December 1-15. While we are in a completely different era now, sometimes there are parts of these old analogs that can rhyme.

Top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC

#1....1898...19.0.....Dec 1-15....0.5...season....55.9

#2....1882...14.0......................0.0........44.0

#3....1938...12.0......................0.0....37.3

#4....2018....6.4...................... 0.0 so far

#5...1892.....6.3.......................1.5....44.7

#6...1896.....5.0.......................0.0.....43.6

What about 89 and 2102? 89 was all she wrote ( or was it 88? ) and 2012-13 didn't get rolling til we got the Feb storm, which we looked to get fringed on but managed 6  ( another one where you needed to be east, so Manhattan got 11 and a few miles west less, just like last Jan. ) and then we had a piddly March event of 5 or so that was down to about 2.5 by day's end...

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12 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Wow...2013 was WILD.

I think the 23rd is exactly right, and that we see temps rise to 2014 levels for a day or 2. Nothing crazy. 

I am sure we were in the 70's in 2015; I had a tomato seedling sprout between patio pavers ( damn squirrels drop the seeds everywhere ) but I am SW of Manhattan, across from SI.

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