Brasiluvsnow Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 88 and others might have seen this already but the GFS is now saying colder next week and it shows something on Wednesday and again 2 days later on Friday,,,,,is it on to something ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: 88 and others might have seen this already but the GFS is now saying colder next week and it shows something on Wednesday and again 2 days later on Friday,,,,,is it on to something ? The pattern is favorable but it will come down to timing like always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 4th storms looks verbatim too west/late coastal, but overall pattern for the storm is very interesting with established cold air, 50/50 low, and streaming southern moisture. Still enough time for this to go either way and at least some frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 14 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: 4th storms looks verbatim too west/late coastal, but overall pattern for the storm is very interesting with established cold air, 50/50 low, and streaming southern moisture. Still enough time for this to go either way and at least some frozen. Too early to say what will happen Euro is ots Cmc has a snow event Gfs has a late transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 There is barely a warm-up on the gfs and cmc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: There is barely a warm-up on the gfs and cmc I’m still believing there is likely to be a mid to late month warmup. It seems the majority of the El Niño in December either are mostly wall to wall warmth or have an early cold start then generally moderate middle onward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 all the cold el nino Decembers had a negative ao/nao on average...only 1997 was above normal but that was a strong enso... year.....ave temp...snowfall.....ao.....nao 1958.......29.4.........3.8".......-1.687.......-0.70 1976.......29.9.........5.1".......-2.074.......-1.60 1963.......31.2.......11.3".......-1.178.......-1.92 1969.......33.4.........6.8".......-1.856.......-0.28 1968.......34.3.........7.0".......-0.783.......-1.40 1977.......35.7.........0.4".......-0.240.......-1.00 2009.......35.9.......12.4".......-3.413.......-1.93 2002.......36.0.......11.0".......-1.592.......-0.94 1997.......38.3..........T..........-0.071.......-0.96 2004.......38.4........3.0"......+1.230.......+1.21 1972.......38.5..........T........+1.238.......+0.19 1986.......39.0........0.6"......+0.060.......+0.99 1987.......39.5........2.6".......-0.534.......+0.32 1991.......39.6........0.7"......+1.613.......+0.46 1957.......40.2........8.7"......+0.828.......+0.12 2014.......40.5........1.0"......+0.413.......+1.86 1965.......40.5..........T........+0.163.......+1.37 1979.......41.1........3.5"......+1.295.......+1.00 1994.......42.2..........T........+0.894.......+2.02 1982.......42.8........3.0"......+0.967.......+1.78 2006.......43.6..........0........+2.282.......+1.34 2015.......50.8..........T........+1.444........+2.24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Eps loves both threats. 2 snowstorms within 1 week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Eps loves both threats. 2 snowstorms within 1 week? we can dream can't we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 ss Still borderline BN, even at Days 16-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 3 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said: we can dream can't we ? 18z gefs looks great for the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Some interesting possibilities for sure, really seems to be following the 02 path. The -AO will be a huge help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 29, 2018 Author Share Posted November 29, 2018 Wow, nice cold/stormy pattern from Dec 3rd on...impressive look, regardless of details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m still believing there is likely to be a mid to late month warmup. It seems the majority of the El Niño in December either are mostly wall to wall warmth or have an early cold start then generally moderate middle onward and snow around the 5th seems to occur more often than not, like Dec 2002 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 as of this morning GFS says , what storm ? CMC still has it. The models are tools yes but how about just a little consistency ? Lets see what the next few runs say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 00z EPS next Saturday is about as good a signal for a d10-11 storm as you can get. It also trended more in favor on just about every major 500mb feature in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Following a brief thaw on 12/1 and 12/2, December will continue the colder pattern of November. This will open the door for early December winter storm threats. But as we have seen recently, it will be better to use post 120 hr ensemble teleconnections as a guide. The models such as the Euro and NAM won't really pin down the storm details until in the shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 Im not sure what next week will bring or even if what is written un the almanacs will come to be but its a fun reading especially for us weenies https://patch.com/new-york/newcity/s/gka7w/white-christmas-on-way-for-hv-almanacs-predict?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 29, 2018 Share Posted November 29, 2018 15 hours ago, Snow88 said: 18z gefs looks great for the 5th 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: and snow around the 5th seems to occur more often than not, like Dec 2002 We had a couple of years in a row with snowstorms on the 5th here. One of them was a near disaster because it had been warm(ish) during the day and the streets waremd up then it started as a few minutes of wet that quickly turned to sleet and a few minutes later to heavy snow. The precip started around 4:30-4:45 then everyone got out of work and the roads were nearly impassable as they flash froze. At least this year we've gotten that first storm out of the way already and everyone is ready for the next one, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 18z GFS interesting for 2 possible snowstorms, Dec 5th and next Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 4 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: 18z GFS interesting for 2 possible snowstorms, Dec 5th and next Saturday... Zelocita----> yesterday it was there for both of those but today / now ? I wish you were correct but I don't see it,,,,,Bueller ? Bueller ? Anyone else see it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Just throwing this out there. Per DT (WxRisk) "Cold pattern breaks down after Dec 10-11..Mild for December 12-24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 6 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Just throwing this out there. Per DT (WxRisk) "Cold pattern breaks down after Dec 10-11..Mild for December 12-24" Haha bank on snow then always bet against that guy. Why anyone listens to him is beyond my wildest imagination Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I can tell you this,,,Every time my inlaws come to visit it " USUALLY " snows so forget the GFS or any of the other models ----> my inlaws are arriving up North from down South next Wednesday = LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 DTWxRisk got that timing breakdown directly from the CFS. Dec. 18 and Dec. 28 look to be the ugliest. The CFS changes every day anyhow. Yesterday I showed that Days 16-20 were a little BN. But we better get some snow on the ground from Virginia to Maine to blunt the AN air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Weeklies barely have a warmup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 3 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said: Haha bank on snow then always bet against that guy. Why anyone listens to him is beyond my wildest imagination There's almost unanimous agreement that a warm-up will happen around that time frame. Mild periods are very common in Nino Decembers, the difference is how long and mild it'll become. Even 02 had several weeks of milder weather in December/January. However before that happens, we could see two shots at snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: There's almost unanimous agreement that a warm-up will happen around that time frame. Mild periods are very common in Nino Decembers, the difference is how long and mild it'll become. Even 02 had several weeks of milder weather in December/January. However before that happens, we could see two shots at snow. According to what I've been reading, it will basically be two weeks of warmth in the middle of December, which will be sandwiched by cold and snow chances at the beginning and end of the month. I would sign up for that, not only in December, but all winter long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornadocane Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 The Tri-State area is basically threading the needle with every single storm this winter, but there are so many quick moving storms this year. There will be storms when its warm, and there will be storms when it's cold. I imagine there will be 3-4 storms that drop 3-10 inches of snow this winter, as well as some super coastal runners that bury the interior areas with 8-16 inches. Currently, the GFS is depicting some close coastal storms between days 5-14. Anything could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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